https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
Thursday, August 4, 2016
j reacts to trump as the american gorbachev
i've hinted at this repeatedly, but i'm going to be explicit because it's somehow poorly understood that the soviet union collapsed not due to communism or centralized planning but due to the introduction of market reforms. we can have debates about whether things were really worse there or not, but the breaking point is not up for debate: the lines around the street for bread were because of pro-market reforms.
this is what i'm worried about with trump: that he'll let that kind of thing happen. it's the same basic problem that ron paul always presented. if you pull back funding enough, the state will collapse altogether.
it is a realistic threat.
so, i keep pushing this idea that trump will produce glasnost. i'm not going to stop, either.
this is what i'm worried about with trump: that he'll let that kind of thing happen. it's the same basic problem that ron paul always presented. if you pull back funding enough, the state will collapse altogether.
it is a realistic threat.
so, i keep pushing this idea that trump will produce glasnost. i'm not going to stop, either.
j reacts to another useless polling firm
rasmussen: shit poll due to polluted sampling. ignore. don't aggregate.
j reacts to the question of self-interest over group sacrifice in a free society
i'm sorry, but i don't at all see why the question of sacrifice is remotely important. if i were trump, i would have said that i haven't made any sacrifices and aggressively asked why it's important to make sacrifices. this is supposed to be a free society. living in it is about advancing self-interest, not about making sacrifices. so, i don't know where this is coming from. is it in islam? calvinism? but, i don't identify with it.
as far as i'm concerned, their kid died needlessly for oil politics. i'd rather protest the war than go off on some conservative diatribe about "sacrifice".
i mean, trump didn't kill their kid. but, hillary set the process in motion.
i just don't get it...
"i've sacrificed. what sacrifices have you made...?"
that just doesn't resonate. sorry.
i'm the type of person to look somebody in the eye and tell them their sacrifices are their own, they have no right to enforce their sacrifices on others and nobody is responsible for their regret but themselves.
you made your sacrifices. i didn't make them. and, i'm not going to sit around and feel bad for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtJ2f8_lfn4
as far as i'm concerned, their kid died needlessly for oil politics. i'd rather protest the war than go off on some conservative diatribe about "sacrifice".
i mean, trump didn't kill their kid. but, hillary set the process in motion.
i just don't get it...
"i've sacrificed. what sacrifices have you made...?"
that just doesn't resonate. sorry.
i'm the type of person to look somebody in the eye and tell them their sacrifices are their own, they have no right to enforce their sacrifices on others and nobody is responsible for their regret but themselves.
you made your sacrifices. i didn't make them. and, i'm not going to sit around and feel bad for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtJ2f8_lfn4
this is idiotic.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/preserve-cobblestone-windsor-1.3705297
maybe we could bring back open sewers, too?
#fuckthepast #leavehistoryinhistoryclass
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/preserve-cobblestone-windsor-1.3705297
maybe we could bring back open sewers, too?
#fuckthepast #leavehistoryinhistoryclass
i took the mri looking for something like this, in an attempt to rule out ms. i was never looking for a growth. i'm not surprised that they couldn't find anything - i don't see any reason to take another with a contrast agent. but, there may be some subtleties in the imaging. i obviously just simply don't know.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporomandibular_joint_dysfunction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporomandibular_joint_dysfunction
progress update relating to inri014
i've had a down period the last two weeks that's a consequence of a
variety of things, but i don't expect any further political commentary
that is in any way meaningful.
i have a meeting on aug 11 to discuss the mri results with the ear doctor. i expect that it will lead to a referral to see another doctor - either a bone specialist of some sort or possibly a dentist. there is some possibility that i may get a bad surprise. a lot of uncertainty remains around this, and i just have to wait.
this "hybrid double ep single" that i left off at is in fact constructed. i just need to finish writing the notes - which shouldn't be taking so long.
i also need to be cleaning for the rest of the week, and will need to do a compost run, soon.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
i have a meeting on aug 11 to discuss the mri results with the ear doctor. i expect that it will lead to a referral to see another doctor - either a bone specialist of some sort or possibly a dentist. there is some possibility that i may get a bad surprise. a lot of uncertainty remains around this, and i just have to wait.
this "hybrid double ep single" that i left off at is in fact constructed. i just need to finish writing the notes - which shouldn't be taking so long.
i also need to be cleaning for the rest of the week, and will need to do a compost run, soon.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
j reacts to a comment by (thomas) friedman
an economics debate between friedman and i would likely quickly escalate into a shouting match, as i accuse him of dishonesty and he accuses me of utopianism. but, this is a valid criticism. and, if this whole thing falls apart in the end, it's going to be written into her gravestone.
here lies hillary rodham clinton,
who refused to run on the economy,
and hence was laid to rest in a dunce cap.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/opinion/how-clinton-could-knock-trump-out.html?_r=0
here lies hillary rodham clinton,
who refused to run on the economy,
and hence was laid to rest in a dunce cap.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/opinion/how-clinton-could-knock-trump-out.html?_r=0
j reacts to the usefulness of fox polling
the fox poll....
clinton +10. fox?
fox is not like other major media outlets, because it's ideologically driven rather than market driven. cnn, msnbc, cbs, abc - they just want ratings and will bend over any which way to get them. fox has an agenda.
so, i'm always skeptical of anything from fox. i wouldn't trust them to report on the time of day.
but, the polling is reporting reliable methodology and the results are in line with the other reliable firms: clinton's up by around 10 points.
so, we have three media outlets using reliable polling firms that are worth consulting right now: cnn, cbs and fox. with some caveats with fox.
ignore the rest.
clinton +10. fox?
fox is not like other major media outlets, because it's ideologically driven rather than market driven. cnn, msnbc, cbs, abc - they just want ratings and will bend over any which way to get them. fox has an agenda.
so, i'm always skeptical of anything from fox. i wouldn't trust them to report on the time of day.
but, the polling is reporting reliable methodology and the results are in line with the other reliable firms: clinton's up by around 10 points.
so, we have three media outlets using reliable polling firms that are worth consulting right now: cnn, cbs and fox. with some caveats with fox.
ignore the rest.
j reacts to a possible plot twist around the polling propaganda
just another twist on this idea of polling as a means to shape the media that generates popular opinion, though: we've never been in a situation where both of the candidates are so overwhelmingly unpopular, and this kind of standard approach could consequently fail.
so, let's say that hillary's ipsos propaganda panel manages to get an upper hand in the news cycle and we're stuck dealing with weeks of flawed polling that ends up convincing most people that hillary is going to win in a landslide. under normal circumstances, we would expect the projection to create a herd mentality: hillary will get a bump in the polling because people are fucking sheep and they want to vote for the winner. that's what the whole thing is trying to engineer, and that both sides are going to be pushing. but, in this particular circumstance, i'd be a lot more likely to vote for jill stein - especially in a swing state - if i thought clinton was comfortably ahead, and more likely to vote for clinton if it looked very close (and i was convinced she was a lesser evil). a lot of republicans will say the same thing. and, some will even argue that they'll vote for trump in a landslide to send a message.
the same logic applies on the other side, too.
so, this may end up backfiring this cycle, because everybody is so disliked.
so, let's say that hillary's ipsos propaganda panel manages to get an upper hand in the news cycle and we're stuck dealing with weeks of flawed polling that ends up convincing most people that hillary is going to win in a landslide. under normal circumstances, we would expect the projection to create a herd mentality: hillary will get a bump in the polling because people are fucking sheep and they want to vote for the winner. that's what the whole thing is trying to engineer, and that both sides are going to be pushing. but, in this particular circumstance, i'd be a lot more likely to vote for jill stein - especially in a swing state - if i thought clinton was comfortably ahead, and more likely to vote for clinton if it looked very close (and i was convinced she was a lesser evil). a lot of republicans will say the same thing. and, some will even argue that they'll vote for trump in a landslide to send a message.
the same logic applies on the other side, too.
so, this may end up backfiring this cycle, because everybody is so disliked.
j reacts to the surreal truth about the tpp, this election
both of them will fast-track the tpp, should they win.
j reacts to trump's flailing against the polls as demonstration of what i've said
see, this is the point - it's exactly what i'm talking about regarding:
(1) media institutions aligning behind trump (for ratings - so expect this. the rnc beat the dnc soundly.)
(2) "phony" polls being used to project reality and alter public opinion, rather than measure it.
i'll rant a little more about this in the vlogs/reactions that come up this week. but, the actual truth is that the cnn poll is the only poll (besides the cbs one...) released this week that isn't obviously phony.
this is the world we live in. if you haven't read 1984 in a while, go dust it off.
and, yes - she does it, too. there were some phony pro-democratic "polls" released, as well.
again: the cnn and cbs polls are reporting reliable methodologies. the other "polls" are not.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/02/trump_theres_something_phony_about_this_weeks_cnn_poll.html
(1) media institutions aligning behind trump (for ratings - so expect this. the rnc beat the dnc soundly.)
(2) "phony" polls being used to project reality and alter public opinion, rather than measure it.
i'll rant a little more about this in the vlogs/reactions that come up this week. but, the actual truth is that the cnn poll is the only poll (besides the cbs one...) released this week that isn't obviously phony.
this is the world we live in. if you haven't read 1984 in a while, go dust it off.
and, yes - she does it, too. there were some phony pro-democratic "polls" released, as well.
again: the cnn and cbs polls are reporting reliable methodologies. the other "polls" are not.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/02/trump_theres_something_phony_about_this_weeks_cnn_poll.html
j reacts to the election as a choice between catastrophes
i was thinking about it as i was walking, and this is my perception of things.
1) trump is a near certain apocalyptic disaster on the economy. not on trade, but on taxes. it's less the problem of putting the country bankrupt (that can't happen...) and more the problem of defunding institutions. i don't think he understand the importance of government funding and interference in the economy, or what would happen if that were to stop. hillary is in theory a better pick on the economy.
2) hillary is a near certain apocalyptic disaster on foreign policy. she's going to bomb syria. she's going to start a war in eastern europe, and try and blame it on russia. she might start a war in korea, too. trump is in theory a better pick on foreign policy.
so, as a left-leaning voter (i'm not actually a voter....), i'm left with the following choice:
1) is trump such a potential economic catastrophe that it's worth voting for hillary and the escalation of world war three into a possibly nuclear hot conflict? or..
2) is hillary such a potential foreign policy catastrophe that it's worth voting for jill stein and gambling on the country collapsing into glasnost?
i'm currently leaning strongly towards the second option.
if trump wins, you're looking at serious long term economic consequences that are probably unavoidable.
if hillary wins, you're looking at world war three.
1) trump is a near certain apocalyptic disaster on the economy. not on trade, but on taxes. it's less the problem of putting the country bankrupt (that can't happen...) and more the problem of defunding institutions. i don't think he understand the importance of government funding and interference in the economy, or what would happen if that were to stop. hillary is in theory a better pick on the economy.
2) hillary is a near certain apocalyptic disaster on foreign policy. she's going to bomb syria. she's going to start a war in eastern europe, and try and blame it on russia. she might start a war in korea, too. trump is in theory a better pick on foreign policy.
so, as a left-leaning voter (i'm not actually a voter....), i'm left with the following choice:
1) is trump such a potential economic catastrophe that it's worth voting for hillary and the escalation of world war three into a possibly nuclear hot conflict? or..
2) is hillary such a potential foreign policy catastrophe that it's worth voting for jill stein and gambling on the country collapsing into glasnost?
i'm currently leaning strongly towards the second option.
if trump wins, you're looking at serious long term economic consequences that are probably unavoidable.
if hillary wins, you're looking at world war three.
j reacts to helicopter surgeries on elephants as an allegory for alien contact
let's forget about whether alien abductions have any real evidence supporting them, or even whether it's plausible, and just think if we can find examples that we can observe that might help us crudely understand what it would be like.
i've seen a bunch of videos like this. this is one of the less intense ones. and, they seem a little bit more relevant when applied to elephants - who are extremely smart - rather than rhinos.
for example, i saw one video of a team of doctors swooping in on an elephant with a calf in a helicopter, shooting it with a tranquillizer gun from the helicopter, jumping out, separating the calf, performing beneficial surgery on it, sewing it up and flying off.
if you were an elephant, wouldn't that seem a lot like an alien abduction? would the other elephants believe you? would any of the elephants be able to realize that the aliens were actually humans?
we're not exactly sure where elephants are cognitively, but there's some thinking that they can differentiate between languages and even understandcontext syntax. as far as we know, humans are the only other animals that can understand context syntax. they appear to bury their dead, which suggests some beginning concept of religion. nor do we completely understand how they communicate, but we think they may have developed some kind of language through the emission of ground vibrations.
the point i'm trying to get at is that they may not be far from where we were when we first developed the sky-god religions. one attempt to try and rationalize these sky-god religions is to suggest that they may be a memory of contact.
go find some videos of humans interacting with wildlife in africa via helicopter and come back and tell me that's crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdP-m2h53G8
i've seen a bunch of videos like this. this is one of the less intense ones. and, they seem a little bit more relevant when applied to elephants - who are extremely smart - rather than rhinos.
for example, i saw one video of a team of doctors swooping in on an elephant with a calf in a helicopter, shooting it with a tranquillizer gun from the helicopter, jumping out, separating the calf, performing beneficial surgery on it, sewing it up and flying off.
if you were an elephant, wouldn't that seem a lot like an alien abduction? would the other elephants believe you? would any of the elephants be able to realize that the aliens were actually humans?
we're not exactly sure where elephants are cognitively, but there's some thinking that they can differentiate between languages and even understand
the point i'm trying to get at is that they may not be far from where we were when we first developed the sky-god religions. one attempt to try and rationalize these sky-god religions is to suggest that they may be a memory of contact.
go find some videos of humans interacting with wildlife in africa via helicopter and come back and tell me that's crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdP-m2h53G8
j reacts to some more polls with useless methodologies
the economist/yougov and nbc/sm polls are both trash. don't even aggregate them. both blacklisted. remember: i'm reacting solely to methodology, not their claims.
clinton is leading comfortable in national polls, right now - by a little less than ten points. but, of course it's the local polls that matter.
clinton is leading comfortable in national polls, right now - by a little less than ten points. but, of course it's the local polls that matter.
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
shouldn't this be one of his biggest legacies? something he's jumping all over? he's delegating it...does he want this job?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
it's very weird. a lot of times he seems like he doesn't want to govern.
mr. prime minister. you're the person that's supposed to govern. that means picking supreme court justices. and, you're supposed to pick the person that most accurately uphold and reflects your partisan agenda.
i don't understand where he's coming from. some kind of dark age buddhist "wisdom", or something?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
mr. prime minister. you're the person that's supposed to govern. that means picking supreme court justices. and, you're supposed to pick the person that most accurately uphold and reflects your partisan agenda.
i don't understand where he's coming from. some kind of dark age buddhist "wisdom", or something?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
i mean, what's really going on here? was picking a court justice interfering with his canoe time, or what?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
i voted for the liberals. i want them to replace every judge with a liberal. i want them to replace the conservative judges with liberals. i want them to replace the liberal judges with even more liberal judges, and the extremely liberal judges with exceedingly liberal judges. i want the court to have exactly zero conservative justices on it. that's why i voted for the liberals. what's the use in having an election, when the liberals appoint conservative judges?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
could you imagine hillary clinton making george w. bush the head of a committee to determine the next supreme court nominee?
wait. don't answer that...
it's absurd.
i'm really not opposed to a committee, but i would expect him to stack the committee with liberals - because the liberals won the election and therefore get to stack the court. that's why we had an election!
the supreme court - ironically - won't let him do this, though. the constitution is pretty clear that the prime minister has to pick the justices.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
wait. don't answer that...
it's absurd.
i'm really not opposed to a committee, but i would expect him to stack the committee with liberals - because the liberals won the election and therefore get to stack the court. that's why we had an election!
the supreme court - ironically - won't let him do this, though. the constitution is pretty clear that the prime minister has to pick the justices.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
dale mcrobie
This is unfair to unilingual Canadian! Just because one only speaks one language they should not be penalized!
jessica amber murray
how do you expect a unilingual judge to hear a case in french? this is a common sense requirement.
Michael Chong
first off they do not individually sit as judges for each case,it's a group sitting. Also why not just get language translators. If ambassadors who are sitting at the UN have them why not Canada.?
jessica amber murray
so, the fiscal conservatives want to hire translators instead of just appointing a bilingual judge. curious.
with something like the supreme court, i'd suggest that we don't want translators getting in the way in the interpretation of language. rulings can turn on interpretations. so, i think it's a functional requirement that the court can understand a ruling out of quebec natively, and be able to translate it independently.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
This is unfair to unilingual Canadian! Just because one only speaks one language they should not be penalized!
jessica amber murray
how do you expect a unilingual judge to hear a case in french? this is a common sense requirement.
Michael Chong
first off they do not individually sit as judges for each case,it's a group sitting. Also why not just get language translators. If ambassadors who are sitting at the UN have them why not Canada.?
jessica amber murray
so, the fiscal conservatives want to hire translators instead of just appointing a bilingual judge. curious.
with something like the supreme court, i'd suggest that we don't want translators getting in the way in the interpretation of language. rulings can turn on interpretations. so, i think it's a functional requirement that the court can understand a ruling out of quebec natively, and be able to translate it independently.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
jessica amber murray
i voted for a liberal prime minister. so, i want a liberal prime minister to appoint a liberal judge.
Cindy Fordyce
I want a Liberal gov't to appoint the best person who meets the qualifications to be appointed.
Politics is not an Olympic sport and should never be made so.
jessica amber murray
you're incoherent. you say you want a competition over who's "the best", then you say it's not a competition. but, you can't possibly define what "the best person" who has "the best" qualifications even *is*.
all politics is bias. and all law is politics. it's basic critical legal theory.
there is no meritocracy. there's simply a party apparatus. and, you can appoint somebody that upholds your biases or somebody that upholds somebody else's.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
i voted for a liberal prime minister. so, i want a liberal prime minister to appoint a liberal judge.
Cindy Fordyce
I want a Liberal gov't to appoint the best person who meets the qualifications to be appointed.
Politics is not an Olympic sport and should never be made so.
jessica amber murray
you're incoherent. you say you want a competition over who's "the best", then you say it's not a competition. but, you can't possibly define what "the best person" who has "the best" qualifications even *is*.
all politics is bias. and all law is politics. it's basic critical legal theory.
there is no meritocracy. there's simply a party apparatus. and, you can appoint somebody that upholds your biases or somebody that upholds somebody else's.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
when you remove partisanship, you remove democracy.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
let me try this another way.
a part of the responsibility of the prime minister is to appoint the supreme court justices. this is a political process, meaning it's a part of the prime minister's mandate. not only is this process obviously unconstitutional, but it's a rejection of one of the prime minister's core job functions: to determine the justice in such a way that reflects the popular will, which is necessarily a partisan process.
the previous election was about wiping the conservatives out of power. where did all this bipartisan or nonpartisan stuff come from? there's no mandate for this.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
a part of the responsibility of the prime minister is to appoint the supreme court justices. this is a political process, meaning it's a part of the prime minister's mandate. not only is this process obviously unconstitutional, but it's a rejection of one of the prime minister's core job functions: to determine the justice in such a way that reflects the popular will, which is necessarily a partisan process.
the previous election was about wiping the conservatives out of power. where did all this bipartisan or nonpartisan stuff come from? there's no mandate for this.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
jessica amber murray
what, exactly, was wrong with a partisan process?
Taylor Sutherland
bias.
jessica amber murray
it's a court process. bias is the whole point. i don't even...
if you remove bias, what are they ruling on? corporate expediency? objective truth?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
what, exactly, was wrong with a partisan process?
Taylor Sutherland
bias.
jessica amber murray
it's a court process. bias is the whole point. i don't even...
if you remove bias, what are they ruling on? corporate expediency? objective truth?
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
i'm an evangelical atheist and everything, but a part of me kind of wants this to be retribution.
if some sadistic god does exist, however unlikely, i'd like to think it has an altruistic streak that would take a community like this (where virtually everybody is employed by the tar sands industry) out.
if anybody turns to salt, let me know.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/wildfire-stricken-fort-mcmurray-battles-major-floods/70744/
if some sadistic god does exist, however unlikely, i'd like to think it has an altruistic streak that would take a community like this (where virtually everybody is employed by the tar sands industry) out.
if anybody turns to salt, let me know.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/wildfire-stricken-fort-mcmurray-battles-major-floods/70744/
jessica amber murray
why does he keep appointing conservatives?
the election results were not ambiguous. it's kind of counter to his mandate to keep stacking all these reform bodies with conservatives.
if we wanted conservatives, we would have voted for them. we voted against them. so, why is he doing this?
Lori Cameron
Did you mean, why does he keep appointing those whom he believes are the best qualified for the given positions?
jessica amber murray
i'm not sure how anybody comes to the conclusion that kim campbell is best qualified for anything, besides a lecture on how to preside over the worst electoral defeat in canadian history.
a supreme court advisory is not a meritocratic position, it's a partisan position. i really don't want a conservative body determining the composition of the next supreme court, and it's frankly downright enraging to see a liberal prime minister put such a thing in motion.
ironically, i don't think that this is constitutional.
Tim Saucier
What disqualifies Kim Campbell from the job, aside from being "Conservative"?
jessica amber murray
considering that we elected an overwhelming liberal majority, i think that's enough.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
why does he keep appointing conservatives?
the election results were not ambiguous. it's kind of counter to his mandate to keep stacking all these reform bodies with conservatives.
if we wanted conservatives, we would have voted for them. we voted against them. so, why is he doing this?
Lori Cameron
Did you mean, why does he keep appointing those whom he believes are the best qualified for the given positions?
jessica amber murray
i'm not sure how anybody comes to the conclusion that kim campbell is best qualified for anything, besides a lecture on how to preside over the worst electoral defeat in canadian history.
a supreme court advisory is not a meritocratic position, it's a partisan position. i really don't want a conservative body determining the composition of the next supreme court, and it's frankly downright enraging to see a liberal prime minister put such a thing in motion.
ironically, i don't think that this is constitutional.
Tim Saucier
What disqualifies Kim Campbell from the job, aside from being "Conservative"?
jessica amber murray
considering that we elected an overwhelming liberal majority, i think that's enough.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-justices-selection-1.3703779
j reacts to the continued cringey optics in the clinton campaign
please tell me that the campaign didn't release this photo.
first of all, i hope that's a shadow in his crotch.
but, it looks like a still shot from a bollywood film.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/89d1c020f52f1846267ff79ea2a3fbe72d5bb2d0/0_165_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?w=860&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=1d7a0f53f335863123c02f5bec35eb15
"we would like to announce our new strategy to defeat isis: a dance-off!. get on your dancin' shoes, osama. we're gonna prance you back to the dark ages."
where's john fucking travolta when you need him, anyways?
first of all, i hope that's a shadow in his crotch.
but, it looks like a still shot from a bollywood film.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/89d1c020f52f1846267ff79ea2a3fbe72d5bb2d0/0_165_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?w=860&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=1d7a0f53f335863123c02f5bec35eb15
"we would like to announce our new strategy to defeat isis: a dance-off!. get on your dancin' shoes, osama. we're gonna prance you back to the dark ages."
where's john fucking travolta when you need him, anyways?
j reacts to the level of discourse we should expect for the remainder of the cycle
you know, this is the thing, right - it gives clinton almost infinite leeway. she seems to want to run her campaign like an evil dead outtake. but, he's possibly worse.
i'm even willing to concede that people will play along with a little good theatre. but, the level of disrespect these dipshits have for voters has reached levels that just can't even be dealt with any more.
satan vs hitler.
maybe you've seen this before, i dunno.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA
i'm even willing to concede that people will play along with a little good theatre. but, the level of disrespect these dipshits have for voters has reached levels that just can't even be dealt with any more.
satan vs hitler.
maybe you've seen this before, i dunno.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA
i'm a little more productive today, but i'm still dragging. i just spent a while dropping the relevant vlogs on to the facebook page.
if i actually had any fans, they couldn't complain. it's a lot of content.
i've also closed the door to the other room, which has the effect of both eliminating the air conditioning from my main living space and turning it on in the recording studio. that may actually turn out relatively well, in both ways. but, i haven't really tested it yet.
the tracklisting was finalized and uploaded on the morning of the 31st. i was hoping to get the bureaucracy done yesterday, but it was just a wash. i should get it done by the time i fall asleep, today.
i should get a call from the doctor's today. i'm going to avoid checking email until tomorrow.
if i actually had any fans, they couldn't complain. it's a lot of content.
i've also closed the door to the other room, which has the effect of both eliminating the air conditioning from my main living space and turning it on in the recording studio. that may actually turn out relatively well, in both ways. but, i haven't really tested it yet.
the tracklisting was finalized and uploaded on the morning of the 31st. i was hoping to get the bureaucracy done yesterday, but it was just a wash. i should get it done by the time i fall asleep, today.
i should get a call from the doctor's today. i'm going to avoid checking email until tomorrow.
Monday, August 1, 2016
j reacts to some new polls & their methodologies
the cbs and cnn polls are both reporting reliable methodologies, although i'm not certain that the cbs poll is using live interviewers (live interviewers are more reliable than robocalls). those are the first two sets of reliable polling results, so far.
again: i'm not convinced that the convention had anything to do with trump's temporary bump, or clinton's recovery. i think there's a pattern that suggests he gets temporary bumps on terrorist activity and that they fade when people get over their anger and regain the use of their brains. we'll have to see how that develops.
again: i'm not convinced that the convention had anything to do with trump's temporary bump, or clinton's recovery. i think there's a pattern that suggests he gets temporary bumps on terrorist activity and that they fade when people get over their anger and regain the use of their brains. we'll have to see how that develops.
31-07-2016: more mri drama
tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
that was a really weird day...
i found myself spending basically the whole night listening to songs about rain. i dunno. i guess i just wanted to waste the day.
i actually think that i can close inri014 before i crash. let's see...
https://youtu.be/fmxbaHXOXGw?list=PLrHImg7oLm2ZZzCOQLPx8rYj0eXEP8AGP
i found myself spending basically the whole night listening to songs about rain. i dunno. i guess i just wanted to waste the day.
i actually think that i can close inri014 before i crash. let's see...
https://youtu.be/fmxbaHXOXGw?list=PLrHImg7oLm2ZZzCOQLPx8rYj0eXEP8AGP
j reacts to trump as hyper-zionist, islamophobic....nazi?
i'm more concerned about trump being a dangerous zionist than i am about him being a nazi.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/26/david-duke-donald-trump-is-too-zionist-for-me.html
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/26/david-duke-donald-trump-is-too-zionist-for-me.html
i'm sorry, but i don't at all see why the question of sacrifice is remotely important. if i were trump, i would have said that i haven't made any sacrifices and aggressively asked why it's important to make sacrifices. this is a free society. living in it is about advancing self-interest, not about making sacrifices. so, i don't know where this is coming from. is it in islam? calvinism? but, i don't identify with it.
j reacts to the laughable idea that pennsylvania is a swing state
pennsylvania's not a swing state. the urban population is simply too large of a percentage of the population.
on top of florida and ohio, trump also has to win virginia, missouri and one of nevada or iowa.
it's not likely.
he has no choice but to find a way to win virginia.
that was a correct calculation, so long as it doesn't backfire.
on top of florida and ohio, trump also has to win virginia, missouri and one of nevada or iowa.
it's not likely.
he has no choice but to find a way to win virginia.
that was a correct calculation, so long as it doesn't backfire.
j reacts to "public policy polling"
"Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,276 likely voters on July 29th and 30th. The margin of error is +/-2.7%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."
you can throw them in the trash, too. i'm still waiting for a good firm to present itself.
with something like this, it just opens up the possibility that that 20% is being used to falsify the results. 1,000 people is a large enough sample this early in the race. there's no reason to bring this opt-in panel in other than to fuck with the results.
so, i don't want to naively accuse them of polluting the sample. no. they're doing it on purpose.
if they'd like to release just the real polling data separately, that would shut me up. don't count on it.
you can throw them in the trash, too. i'm still waiting for a good firm to present itself.
with something like this, it just opens up the possibility that that 20% is being used to falsify the results. 1,000 people is a large enough sample this early in the race. there's no reason to bring this opt-in panel in other than to fuck with the results.
so, i don't want to naively accuse them of polluting the sample. no. they're doing it on purpose.
if they'd like to release just the real polling data separately, that would shut me up. don't count on it.
Sunday, July 31, 2016
j reacts to the rug being pulled out from under bernie-or-bust
i've got some good news for hillary.
the logic underlying bernie or bust - that we're better off abstaining, under the hope that trump leads to collapse - appears to be disintegrating.
clinton increasingly looks like the better bet for collapse.
the logic underlying bernie or bust - that we're better off abstaining, under the hope that trump leads to collapse - appears to be disintegrating.
clinton increasingly looks like the better bet for collapse.
i wasn't able to get a straight answer out of anybody at the radiology
department regarding why the second mri was requested, so i've cancelled
it. i was specific: do you think you might see a tumour? do you think
you might see a lesion? all i could get was "the doctor is requesting a
second mri". an appeal to authority is simply not convincing to me.
i have verified at least that the information was sent to the referring doctor, so i will call them on tuesday for further exploration of the issue.
while it is possible that the radiologist was just incompetent with his notes - that he has a good reason that he didn't specify because he's lazy - my reading of the situation is that he's just looking for a way to bill me twice, and that that's actually probably a good sign because it probably at least rules out the tumour.
as mentioned previously, i'm leaning more towards lyme disease at this point. but, i'm going to need to see the scans myself....
i have verified at least that the information was sent to the referring doctor, so i will call them on tuesday for further exploration of the issue.
while it is possible that the radiologist was just incompetent with his notes - that he has a good reason that he didn't specify because he's lazy - my reading of the situation is that he's just looking for a way to bill me twice, and that that's actually probably a good sign because it probably at least rules out the tumour.
as mentioned previously, i'm leaning more towards lyme disease at this point. but, i'm going to need to see the scans myself....
ok, i just woke up. i had checked my inbox, half asleep, during a
mid-morning urination awakening and they want to inject me with some
isotope of something...?
what it does is make the tumor or lesion more visible in the scan. that seems to indicate that there is a tumor or lesion. but, i need to know what it is, first, before i make any decisions. injecting me with some kind of metal seems kind of reckless, unless it's a mitigating factor. harm reduction. i'm not there yet.
are they lesions? if so, i'd rather get a blood test for lyme disease. and, i mean, there's not really any treatment for ms, anyways. i'll just take the diagnosis to my nearest odsp office and otherwise forget about it. no, really. so, i have ms. what does injecting me with a heavy metal for an mri accomplish? but, what if i only have lyme disease? there's safer ways to determine this.
do they think they found a tumour? how aggressive do they think it is? this is the one situation where i may consent to this...
....but i also need to see the existing scans first. apparently, it was the radiologist that requested the second scan. who is what? a technician?
"oh, i'm not a doctor."
two things i'm worried about.
1) all industry exists for the purpose of maximizing profit. even in canada, people get paid. and, what that actually means is that we have a lot of unnecessary procedures done because somebody gets paid. on first glance, too much health care might seem better than not enough. but, this is one of those circumstances where too much may be worse. i'm not ruling the procedure out on principle, i just want to make sure that we've gone through the safer - less expensive - options first.
2) i talk a lot of shit in a lot of places. i keep pointing out that i'm harmless, but i'm not sure i'm winning that argument. would somebody go out of their way to get rid of me? it's not impossible. it *is* outrageous. it *is* ridiculous. but, the world we live in is outrageous and ridiculous. i just need to be a little bit more careful than the average bear, i think.
so, i'm going to go call them back and tentatively cancel the appointment. i need to have them articulate exactly what they're looking for, and confirm that they've actually sent the results to the doctor that referred me. i also want to know when i can see the scans, myself.
what it does is make the tumor or lesion more visible in the scan. that seems to indicate that there is a tumor or lesion. but, i need to know what it is, first, before i make any decisions. injecting me with some kind of metal seems kind of reckless, unless it's a mitigating factor. harm reduction. i'm not there yet.
are they lesions? if so, i'd rather get a blood test for lyme disease. and, i mean, there's not really any treatment for ms, anyways. i'll just take the diagnosis to my nearest odsp office and otherwise forget about it. no, really. so, i have ms. what does injecting me with a heavy metal for an mri accomplish? but, what if i only have lyme disease? there's safer ways to determine this.
do they think they found a tumour? how aggressive do they think it is? this is the one situation where i may consent to this...
....but i also need to see the existing scans first. apparently, it was the radiologist that requested the second scan. who is what? a technician?
"oh, i'm not a doctor."
two things i'm worried about.
1) all industry exists for the purpose of maximizing profit. even in canada, people get paid. and, what that actually means is that we have a lot of unnecessary procedures done because somebody gets paid. on first glance, too much health care might seem better than not enough. but, this is one of those circumstances where too much may be worse. i'm not ruling the procedure out on principle, i just want to make sure that we've gone through the safer - less expensive - options first.
2) i talk a lot of shit in a lot of places. i keep pointing out that i'm harmless, but i'm not sure i'm winning that argument. would somebody go out of their way to get rid of me? it's not impossible. it *is* outrageous. it *is* ridiculous. but, the world we live in is outrageous and ridiculous. i just need to be a little bit more careful than the average bear, i think.
so, i'm going to go call them back and tentatively cancel the appointment. i need to have them articulate exactly what they're looking for, and confirm that they've actually sent the results to the doctor that referred me. i also want to know when i can see the scans, myself.
i initially noticed facial tics around my left ear some time around ten years ago. i had an mri done but i didn't hear anything back and i forgot about it. it was kind of just a mild annoyance. at the time, i was thinking something more along the lines of heavy metal poisoning from living on a busy street with a lot of truck traffic (bronson avenue) than anything else.
the issue of the facial tics would come and go, but never really got out of hand as anything more than an annoyance until a little over a yea ago when i noticed i was having an extended period of difficulty swallowing (dysphagia) that has yet to really resolve itself. i initially brought this up with a nurse at the camh here, who did not take me seriously. i asked several times for an mri, and he kept telling me we'll talk about it later. it never happened.
the first few years i was here, i was struggling to find a doctor willing to prescribe me hormones. i was able to finally find a family doctor last fall that was willing to not just prescribe but also to increase my dosage, and that has had some positive effects. he has also finally taken my concerns about dysphagia seriously. while he suggested i should see a neurologist, i insisted on seeing an ear doctor to start and then graduating to a neurologist as the issue resolved or complicated itself.
the ear doctor initially did not take me seriously, either. however, i pushed for a hearing test - which discovered some loss in the affected ear. she still refused to take the situation seriously, suggested that the test was just error and insisted that i take it again. i instead pushed for an mri - which i had on monday.
i felt the mri would be the best idea because it could determine three things:
1) is my jaw crooked? in 2006, i fell of my bike and landed terribly on my face. the tic and resulting dysphagia could be the result of a skeletal abnormality, which could either be broken back in place or just dealt with. it would be useful to know, one way or the other.
2) do i have brain lesions? if i do, are those lesions more consistent with something like ms or more indicative of something like lyme disease?
3) is there maybe a tumor in there? i'm considering this possibility to be extremely remote due to how long i've had the issue for. one does not have a malignant tumor in their head for over ten years. i'd be dead by now.
i just checked my email and realized that somebody called me on the saturday of the long weekend to book a second mri. while i will not know the reasons for this request until i call back, i'm considering this to be somewhat ominous. it is possible that there was some error and they need to redo it, but i would think that a request for a second mri indicates that they found something that shouldn't be there. is it a lesion or a tumor?
i think they open at 6:00 am.
the issue of the facial tics would come and go, but never really got out of hand as anything more than an annoyance until a little over a yea ago when i noticed i was having an extended period of difficulty swallowing (dysphagia) that has yet to really resolve itself. i initially brought this up with a nurse at the camh here, who did not take me seriously. i asked several times for an mri, and he kept telling me we'll talk about it later. it never happened.
the first few years i was here, i was struggling to find a doctor willing to prescribe me hormones. i was able to finally find a family doctor last fall that was willing to not just prescribe but also to increase my dosage, and that has had some positive effects. he has also finally taken my concerns about dysphagia seriously. while he suggested i should see a neurologist, i insisted on seeing an ear doctor to start and then graduating to a neurologist as the issue resolved or complicated itself.
the ear doctor initially did not take me seriously, either. however, i pushed for a hearing test - which discovered some loss in the affected ear. she still refused to take the situation seriously, suggested that the test was just error and insisted that i take it again. i instead pushed for an mri - which i had on monday.
i felt the mri would be the best idea because it could determine three things:
1) is my jaw crooked? in 2006, i fell of my bike and landed terribly on my face. the tic and resulting dysphagia could be the result of a skeletal abnormality, which could either be broken back in place or just dealt with. it would be useful to know, one way or the other.
2) do i have brain lesions? if i do, are those lesions more consistent with something like ms or more indicative of something like lyme disease?
3) is there maybe a tumor in there? i'm considering this possibility to be extremely remote due to how long i've had the issue for. one does not have a malignant tumor in their head for over ten years. i'd be dead by now.
i just checked my email and realized that somebody called me on the saturday of the long weekend to book a second mri. while i will not know the reasons for this request until i call back, i'm considering this to be somewhat ominous. it is possible that there was some error and they need to redo it, but i would think that a request for a second mri indicates that they found something that shouldn't be there. is it a lesion or a tumor?
i think they open at 6:00 am.
i was very young when i decided not to have children. a child, myself, really. 12. 13. of course, you don't want to rule the idea out entirely. there's always that possibility. but, i'd already made up my mind before i got to high school. there was never really any doubt about it.
i think i made the right choice.
i think i made the right choice.
j reacts to this cycle's electoral map (the key state is...missouri?)
my take on things.
i just want to point out that with ohio, i don't think it's about trade or about abortion, i think it's more about nascar - it's cultural. that's why bush won twice. most of ohio is really a southern state. this is where mccain and romney coming across as out of touch elitists hurt them, and where clinton's status as an elite hurts her.
if anything, the abortion thing is going to make what should be a walk for trump a lot closer as it's going to get the vote out in the northern part of the state. but, trump wins here for the same reasons that bush did.
she has a better chance in florida. but, i think you'll see the same basic dynamic assert itself on a slightly lower level. the north of florida is the south; while anti-trump feeling will likely increase turnout in the south, it's cultural affinities will overpower in ways that romney and mccain couldn't orchestrate. again: bush won florida. twice.
due to recent demographic changes, north carolina is maybe a wildcard. but, i think it's a stretch to argue it's a swing state. one win in the modern era does not a swing state make. indiana is not a swing state, either.
the map technically has her less than 270, but that doesn't really put the election in play. if she wins virginia, she wins. if she wins missouri, she wins. if she wins both iowa and nevada, she wins. what are the chances of none of that happening? of trump carrying 3 of those 4 states? they're not very high.
i just want to point out that with ohio, i don't think it's about trade or about abortion, i think it's more about nascar - it's cultural. that's why bush won twice. most of ohio is really a southern state. this is where mccain and romney coming across as out of touch elitists hurt them, and where clinton's status as an elite hurts her.
if anything, the abortion thing is going to make what should be a walk for trump a lot closer as it's going to get the vote out in the northern part of the state. but, trump wins here for the same reasons that bush did.
she has a better chance in florida. but, i think you'll see the same basic dynamic assert itself on a slightly lower level. the north of florida is the south; while anti-trump feeling will likely increase turnout in the south, it's cultural affinities will overpower in ways that romney and mccain couldn't orchestrate. again: bush won florida. twice.
due to recent demographic changes, north carolina is maybe a wildcard. but, i think it's a stretch to argue it's a swing state. one win in the modern era does not a swing state make. indiana is not a swing state, either.
the map technically has her less than 270, but that doesn't really put the election in play. if she wins virginia, she wins. if she wins missouri, she wins. if she wins both iowa and nevada, she wins. what are the chances of none of that happening? of trump carrying 3 of those 4 states? they're not very high.
Saturday, July 30, 2016
j reacts to the corrosive effects of advertising on human individuality
it's really funny how people define things in terms of advertisements, rather in terms of what they actually are. remember: i haven't had meaningful access to a tv in nearly twenty years, and i use ad blocking software online. so, i don't have to suppress ads for things like soda: i've honestly never seen them.
the last time i saw an ad for pepsi, the spokesperson was britney spears. i have literally not seen an ad for pepsi since then. i don't know when that was. 1998? 1999? this was a period when ads for soft drinks like dr. pepper and mountain dew were virtually non-existent. i don't think i've ever even seen an ad for either of them.
well, unless you count whatever website i went to (wiki?) to determine which soft drinks had the highest caffeine contents. that's why i settled on those two, specifically.
i've had conversations with people, though, that want to interpret you that way - that think that the soft drink that you choose must reduce to branding. and, i've noticed glances, too, that i understand in those terms. it's kind of sad, really.
http://www.math.utah.edu/~yplee/fun/caffeine.html
i stayed with my parents for about a year in the mid 00s and found myself with their backup tv parked in front of my bed. i actually didn't want it in there, but they claimed there was nowhere else to put it.
i wasn't home often: for the first six months, i was finishing my first degree and spent most of my time at school and for the second six months i was doing the night shift at microsoft and transiting two hours a day by bicycle. further, i had internet access and much preferred it over television.
i mean, you put a tv and a computer in the same room and give me a choice and i'm going to basically always pick the computer.
about the only thing i ever watched was the odd stewart/colbert run and sporadic re-runs of south park.
besides that, i really have not turned on a tv since the 90s.
even in the 90s, the only things i ever really watched were the x-files, seinfeld and the simpsons. well, and the news. i initially picked up my habit of eating & watching some time in the 90s by watching cnn while eating. and, the exact reason was that i was told not to eat in the basement, where my room and computer were - i had to eat upstairs. i would have rather eaten & usenetted.
and, fwiw - i do not recall ever seeing any sort of tv show that featured donald trump in any kind of capacity.
the last time i saw an ad for pepsi, the spokesperson was britney spears. i have literally not seen an ad for pepsi since then. i don't know when that was. 1998? 1999? this was a period when ads for soft drinks like dr. pepper and mountain dew were virtually non-existent. i don't think i've ever even seen an ad for either of them.
well, unless you count whatever website i went to (wiki?) to determine which soft drinks had the highest caffeine contents. that's why i settled on those two, specifically.
i've had conversations with people, though, that want to interpret you that way - that think that the soft drink that you choose must reduce to branding. and, i've noticed glances, too, that i understand in those terms. it's kind of sad, really.
http://www.math.utah.edu/~yplee/fun/caffeine.html
i stayed with my parents for about a year in the mid 00s and found myself with their backup tv parked in front of my bed. i actually didn't want it in there, but they claimed there was nowhere else to put it.
i wasn't home often: for the first six months, i was finishing my first degree and spent most of my time at school and for the second six months i was doing the night shift at microsoft and transiting two hours a day by bicycle. further, i had internet access and much preferred it over television.
i mean, you put a tv and a computer in the same room and give me a choice and i'm going to basically always pick the computer.
about the only thing i ever watched was the odd stewart/colbert run and sporadic re-runs of south park.
besides that, i really have not turned on a tv since the 90s.
even in the 90s, the only things i ever really watched were the x-files, seinfeld and the simpsons. well, and the news. i initially picked up my habit of eating & watching some time in the 90s by watching cnn while eating. and, the exact reason was that i was told not to eat in the basement, where my room and computer were - i had to eat upstairs. i would have rather eaten & usenetted.
and, fwiw - i do not recall ever seeing any sort of tv show that featured donald trump in any kind of capacity.
j reacts to the reality that canada is a colonial state
this isn't surprising; the problem is systemic. it doesn't really matter what the people in government say, and it doesn't really matter what the opposition says either, they'd in the end do the same thing. the logic of colonialism is not overturned with pleasant language or appeals to moral superiority.
i actually support hydro as a means of clean energy generation. they should be investing in solar and building dams. further, the effects to wildlife in the region can, and in fact no doubt will be addressed. just as an example: where i grew up in ottawa, they spent billions rerouting a creek so they could put in a mall. a mall is less important than a generating station, granted. the other side of that argument is that the mall was on the edge of a city, not somewhere deep in the forest. but, the species that they were trying to protect have actually thrived in the enclosures that were built. if you walk around windsor, where i live now, you can see several examples of something similar.
i'm not a primitivist. i won't take the side of de-development or de-industrialization. rather, what i'm describing is the model that we need to embrace: symbiosis. and, who are our biggest influences (as colonizers) in realizing that?
to me, the issue is more about building trust and respecting the rights of local populations to have some say over the things that happen around them. it's not about property rights, or indigenous rights (explicitly) or about ethnic rights of any sort. i don't believe in grouping people together by ethnicity. it's just about democracy at the local level.
i'd rather have seen them slow down and take the time to convince the locals that this can be done sustainably, so they are working with the project rather than against it. now, the locals are going to spend a lot of time fighting something that they won't be able to stop instead of providing positive ideas towards realizing a symbiotic means of modernization. their ideas are important. they understand the land the best. i want them working with us, not against us.
this area is under treaty, which means that the crown has allodial title, eminent domain rights and all of the other powers of control. they really do just need to click a box for consultation. if it was in a different part of bc, or a couple of places out east, it would be different. the law here is not uniform, but broken down into complicated geographical subsets. further, none of the kinds of geopolitical pressures around the pipelines exist for the hydro dams - and for good reasons. worse, there's widespread misunderstanding about "indigenous title" in the activist community. there was a treaty signed, and under the colonial system that treaty is paramount. working within the legal systems of colonialism means understanding their rules. under the state monopoly of force, they own the land - and the "rule of law" upholds their use of force. you can fight that with force, but you're bound to lose.
i'm not blaming the local groups - the state should have waited until it could get enthusiastic consent. that kind of relationship is necessary, more broadly. the more the state ignores it, the longer the process towards integration becomes. yes, it's going to be slow. no, it will probably not happen in the life time of the existing government. but, in the long run, it's all for nought, otherwise.
http://www.desmog.ca/2016/07/29/trudeau-just-broke-his-promise-canada-s-first-nations
i actually support hydro as a means of clean energy generation. they should be investing in solar and building dams. further, the effects to wildlife in the region can, and in fact no doubt will be addressed. just as an example: where i grew up in ottawa, they spent billions rerouting a creek so they could put in a mall. a mall is less important than a generating station, granted. the other side of that argument is that the mall was on the edge of a city, not somewhere deep in the forest. but, the species that they were trying to protect have actually thrived in the enclosures that were built. if you walk around windsor, where i live now, you can see several examples of something similar.
i'm not a primitivist. i won't take the side of de-development or de-industrialization. rather, what i'm describing is the model that we need to embrace: symbiosis. and, who are our biggest influences (as colonizers) in realizing that?
to me, the issue is more about building trust and respecting the rights of local populations to have some say over the things that happen around them. it's not about property rights, or indigenous rights (explicitly) or about ethnic rights of any sort. i don't believe in grouping people together by ethnicity. it's just about democracy at the local level.
i'd rather have seen them slow down and take the time to convince the locals that this can be done sustainably, so they are working with the project rather than against it. now, the locals are going to spend a lot of time fighting something that they won't be able to stop instead of providing positive ideas towards realizing a symbiotic means of modernization. their ideas are important. they understand the land the best. i want them working with us, not against us.
this area is under treaty, which means that the crown has allodial title, eminent domain rights and all of the other powers of control. they really do just need to click a box for consultation. if it was in a different part of bc, or a couple of places out east, it would be different. the law here is not uniform, but broken down into complicated geographical subsets. further, none of the kinds of geopolitical pressures around the pipelines exist for the hydro dams - and for good reasons. worse, there's widespread misunderstanding about "indigenous title" in the activist community. there was a treaty signed, and under the colonial system that treaty is paramount. working within the legal systems of colonialism means understanding their rules. under the state monopoly of force, they own the land - and the "rule of law" upholds their use of force. you can fight that with force, but you're bound to lose.
i'm not blaming the local groups - the state should have waited until it could get enthusiastic consent. that kind of relationship is necessary, more broadly. the more the state ignores it, the longer the process towards integration becomes. yes, it's going to be slow. no, it will probably not happen in the life time of the existing government. but, in the long run, it's all for nought, otherwise.
http://www.desmog.ca/2016/07/29/trudeau-just-broke-his-promise-canada-s-first-nations
j reacts to clinton as a "product of her era"
remember when the clinton campaign accused sanders of hacking their servers, and we later learned it never happened?
fool me once...
like i say, i really think she's following the neo-con playbook, here, and just doesn't realize that all it really does is make her look weak on national security.
remember: clinton's logic around this is likely "this worked in the primary, so let's do it again.". it's pure pragmatism. while people were calling them out on their dirty tricks, the campaign turned around and promoted the people responsible, because the conclusion was that they were successful.
the people that will tell you that she is the embodiment of wall street corruption are not just throwing rhetoric at you. it's maybe unfair to blame the whole thing on one person: the united states is a culture of randian objectivism. it's not just her. she's a "product of her era".
and it's not like the other guy is any better.
i'm just pointing out that:
(1) even on something like this, you can't trust her.
(2) i don't think the strategy of working voters up against russia - a paper threat, at best - is going to be successful.
it's not just that what's in the emails is being ignored. you'd think somebody would get fired. but, the people responsible are getting promoted. it's almost like it was an excuse for dws to resign so she could move to the campaign. and, it seems more like they're bragging about how corrupt they are than that they're doing anything to address it.
so, there's something else going on here.
fool me once...
like i say, i really think she's following the neo-con playbook, here, and just doesn't realize that all it really does is make her look weak on national security.
remember: clinton's logic around this is likely "this worked in the primary, so let's do it again.". it's pure pragmatism. while people were calling them out on their dirty tricks, the campaign turned around and promoted the people responsible, because the conclusion was that they were successful.
the people that will tell you that she is the embodiment of wall street corruption are not just throwing rhetoric at you. it's maybe unfair to blame the whole thing on one person: the united states is a culture of randian objectivism. it's not just her. she's a "product of her era".
and it's not like the other guy is any better.
i'm just pointing out that:
(1) even on something like this, you can't trust her.
(2) i don't think the strategy of working voters up against russia - a paper threat, at best - is going to be successful.
it's not just that what's in the emails is being ignored. you'd think somebody would get fired. but, the people responsible are getting promoted. it's almost like it was an excuse for dws to resign so she could move to the campaign. and, it seems more like they're bragging about how corrupt they are than that they're doing anything to address it.
so, there's something else going on here.
Friday, July 29, 2016
j reacts to clinton's continued neo-mccarthyism, and why it will backfire
this should be a very easy election to win. her opponent is an imbecile. she doesn't need to pull off all these sophisticated triangulations. she just needs to run on a simple message about the economy.
the average american is not going to read this and think that america needs to unite against the russians. they're going to read this and think that she's so incompetent on national security that she can't even keep the russians out of her campaign communications.
this will backfire. dramatically. it's the only narrative that trump could possibly win on, and they're handing it to him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/30/us/politics/clinton-campaign-hacked-russians.html?_r=0
ok, let's think carefully.
did the russians steal the information? it's not unlikely. the russians are in and out of american servers all day long. so are the chinese. and, the amercians are in and out of russian and chinese servers all the time, too.
at any given moment, any of the major governments can hack into just about anything. that's the reality.
the fbi knows that....
voters don't know that.
so, blowing up the story like this has to be political in some way or another. it's really not actually a story.
the question is what the political purpose is.
i was talking a while back about the deep state trying to take her down on fears of her being compromised, herself. i guess i can't rule that out.
more likely to me is that this is clinton playing out her neo-con fantasies in building up an enemy to unite against. but, again that's just not what people are going to think.
they're just going to see the russians walking all over her: weak leadership, weak on national security....weak. weak. weak.
stephen cohen's a smart guy, and he's right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4StqO_HulQo
https://www.thenation.com/article/neo-mccarthyism-and-olympic-politics-as-more-evidence-of-a-new-cold-war/
https://www.thenation.com/article/against-neo-mccarthyism/
the average american is not going to read this and think that america needs to unite against the russians. they're going to read this and think that she's so incompetent on national security that she can't even keep the russians out of her campaign communications.
this will backfire. dramatically. it's the only narrative that trump could possibly win on, and they're handing it to him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/30/us/politics/clinton-campaign-hacked-russians.html?_r=0
ok, let's think carefully.
did the russians steal the information? it's not unlikely. the russians are in and out of american servers all day long. so are the chinese. and, the amercians are in and out of russian and chinese servers all the time, too.
at any given moment, any of the major governments can hack into just about anything. that's the reality.
the fbi knows that....
voters don't know that.
so, blowing up the story like this has to be political in some way or another. it's really not actually a story.
the question is what the political purpose is.
i was talking a while back about the deep state trying to take her down on fears of her being compromised, herself. i guess i can't rule that out.
more likely to me is that this is clinton playing out her neo-con fantasies in building up an enemy to unite against. but, again that's just not what people are going to think.
they're just going to see the russians walking all over her: weak leadership, weak on national security....weak. weak. weak.
stephen cohen's a smart guy, and he's right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4StqO_HulQo
https://www.thenation.com/article/neo-mccarthyism-and-olympic-politics-as-more-evidence-of-a-new-cold-war/
https://www.thenation.com/article/against-neo-mccarthyism/
i don't know why this came up in the search results.
http://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/v1492720777/galleries/2013/09/05/17-photos-of-putin-schmoozing-with-animals-photos/130904-putin-chick_agza8z.jpg
http://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/v1492720777/galleries/2013/09/05/17-photos-of-putin-schmoozing-with-animals-photos/130904-putin-chick_agza8z.jpg
not bad. needs more 'murica, though.
https://pics.me.me/just-saw-donald-trump-driving-down-the-road-campaigning-1832529.png
https://pics.me.me/just-saw-donald-trump-driving-down-the-road-campaigning-1832529.png
POPEMOBILE
i'm sorry...
it's just that it's a real thing.
the premise just cracks me up every time.
nananananananananananananana......
https://s.abcnews.com/images/International/GTY_popemobile_2_kab_150611_4x3_992.jpg
https://d1nz104zbf64va.cloudfront.net/dt/a/o/history-of-the-popemobile-from-a-horse-drawn-carriage-to-jeep-wrangler.jpg
i'm sorry...
it's just that it's a real thing.
the premise just cracks me up every time.
nananananananananananananana......
https://s.abcnews.com/images/International/GTY_popemobile_2_kab_150611_4x3_992.jpg
https://d1nz104zbf64va.cloudfront.net/dt/a/o/history-of-the-popemobile-from-a-horse-drawn-carriage-to-jeep-wrangler.jpg
j reacts to "online polling" a second time
that ipsos "poll" may seem like things are back to normal, but it is also an "online poll" and consequently just as worthless as the one out of california the other day that had trump up by 7. ipsos has done a lot of polling in canada and is consistently nowhere near the outcome. they're literally worthless as prognosticators. i wouldn't even aggregate them. i wouldn't even report on them. i may even say i'd blacklist them from coverage.
i know that people will point to cell phones as a problem with polling, and a lot of the concerns they point to were at one point valid, but online "polling" is simply not a way forward. the best polling firms have actually found ways to poll cell phones and don't really see it as a serious barrier anymore.
the problem with the online polling is that there's no concept of randomness. the math underlying polling needs a random sample to make any sense. you can basically take anything with a "credibility interval" and toss it in the trash - the correct credibility interval for an online poll is not credible. ever. if it's close, it's by chance.
the rcp average is consequently just a polluted mess that should be avoided. i don't know if they've addressed this or written about it. but, they shouldn't be aggregating credible polling with this online propaganda-generation bullshit.
what that means is that the number of polls you should take seriously is a lot smaller than the media is going to throw at you. when the media throws a poll at you, immediately check to see if it's telephone polling or an "online panel" and respond accordingly.
the reason they report "credibility intervals" is that they can't measure error because the sample isn't random. it's just a pr tactic to make "online polling" look more scientific than it is.
it is not the same thing as a margin of error. don't be confused by this.
i know that people will point to cell phones as a problem with polling, and a lot of the concerns they point to were at one point valid, but online "polling" is simply not a way forward. the best polling firms have actually found ways to poll cell phones and don't really see it as a serious barrier anymore.
the problem with the online polling is that there's no concept of randomness. the math underlying polling needs a random sample to make any sense. you can basically take anything with a "credibility interval" and toss it in the trash - the correct credibility interval for an online poll is not credible. ever. if it's close, it's by chance.
the rcp average is consequently just a polluted mess that should be avoided. i don't know if they've addressed this or written about it. but, they shouldn't be aggregating credible polling with this online propaganda-generation bullshit.
what that means is that the number of polls you should take seriously is a lot smaller than the media is going to throw at you. when the media throws a poll at you, immediately check to see if it's telephone polling or an "online panel" and respond accordingly.
the reason they report "credibility intervals" is that they can't measure error because the sample isn't random. it's just a pr tactic to make "online polling" look more scientific than it is.
it is not the same thing as a margin of error. don't be confused by this.
these people should write an open letter to the people of wisconsin, apologizing for their bad judgement.
i mean the hats, specifically.
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/147DF/production/_90553938_mediaitem90553937.jpg
i mean the hats, specifically.
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/147DF/production/_90553938_mediaitem90553937.jpg
Anarcho-Communist Cookbook
It's not a dodge if you genuinely dislike both of them.
jessica
that's right. if i tell you that they're both the same and it doesn't matter, you can disagree with me and tell me i'm wrong. but, don't tell me i'm dodging the question. it's just disingenuous. i really, honestly don't think that hillary is preferable to trump. i'm sorry. we can disagree. but that's how it is.
Dribrom Sunrock
I honestly do not think there will be a next election year if Trump get elected. I'm quite sure he will declare marshal law and say that there will be no more elections until "we have figured things out". I'm not taking any chances. At least I trust Hillary not to burn down the world as we know it during the next 4 years. Voting for a 3rd party is just a too big of a risk IMO. But we should not kid yourself here the house of Representatives will not vote for a 3rd party.
jessica
you can't even spell martial law.
as an aside, a marshall plan for the united states would probably be a good idea.
the way the single-party state has people brainwashed is really astounding. do you realize that the republican party has it's own voters worked up in exactly the same way? that they think hillary will declare an executive order on day one to seize everybody's guns and officially usher in the New World Order(tm)?
this is not even within the realm of constitutional possibility. we will have continuing creeping fascism one way or the other: they're both fascists, after all. but, trump would not actually be legally able to do any of the things you're fantasizing about.
it's far more likely that trump will spend 350 days a year on the golf course.
"fuck this. i'm outta here."
i want to be clear, because i suspect that this is democratic party propaganda: it's not believable. it's laughable. trump couldn't tell his dog to sit. you're running against charlie chaplin, and you're trying to paint him as hitler. it is so unbelievable - so ridiculous - that it may backfire to the point that it is the reason you lose.
the way you beat a guy like trump is that you expose his poor leadership qualities. you don't broadcast him as a strong leader.
"don't vote for my opponent, guys. he's a strong leader. vote for me. i'm less of a leader."
trump is the corrupt, absent ceo. he's the guy that takes credit for the work other people do. he's the lazy, do-nothing, loafer that inherited his dad's job. he doesn't care about anything except his golf game. he'll fiddle while the empire burns. he's corrupt. he's inept. he's incompetent.
if your propaganda comes off as b grade horror film trash, that's the reaction you're going to get to it: that the campaign is unprofessional. amateur. you want the campaign to be like army of darkness? then expect to lose.
just run on the economy. look at his tax policies. they're idiotic. even most republicans can figure that out.
Dribrom Sunrock
It would not be the first time it have happened in USA. During the Civil War, Lincoln continually violated the Constitution, in some cases suspending the entire Constitution that he swore to uphold.
On September 29, 2006, President George W. Bush signed the John Warner National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2007 (H.R. 5122). The law expanded the President’s authority to declare Martial Law under revisions to the Insurrection Act and actually allowed the President to take charge of National Guard troops without state governor authorization.
While certain aspects of the bill were rolled back in 2008, President Obama used the 2012 NDAA to further strengthen the Executive offices ability to declare Martial Law and added provisions that would allow military troops to detain U.S. citizens without a trial.
jessica
lincoln didn't "suspend the entire constitution". but, he had a war in front of him, which allowed him the constitutional prerequisite to suspend the rule of law - whether you like that or not. his declaration of martial law was, in fact, constitutional - and it was limited by congress.
you can't just declare martial law because you feel like it. nor can you suspend the constitution via executive order. the ndaa is a troubling piece of legislation, but it does not remove the basic necessity of war before martial law can be declared. nor does it remove congressional oversight.
i don't believe that my time is well spent in arguing the specifics of constitutional law with paid propagandists. you can choose to listen to me or to ignore me.
SneaksterMK
Kyle literally said it in the video though just because you don't wanna answer the question doesn't mean it doesn't exist since it's reality that Clinton or trump WILL (sadly) become POTUS
jessica
"i don't care which one wins - and neither should you!" is a valid answer. you might not like it. but it's not dodging anything.
i honestly think trump will be less interventionist, and i think that's a good thing. i'm not afraid of the word "isolationist". but, hillary will probably be a little bit more likely to push for deficit spending, which is also a good thing considering we're still on the brink of recession because of a continued deficit of government spending. so, they both have very weak upsides.
neither of the weak upsides overpower the awful downsides. they're equally terrible with all kinds of shit across the spectrum.
you could look at like this:
1) if you want to stop hillary from starting world war three, vote for trump.
2) if you want to stop trump from initiating an american perestroika, vote for hillary.
you're supposed to think one is better than the other?
no. not every set is well-ordered...
SneaksterMK
kyles gonna upload a video tomorrow about Jill stein and the lesser of two evils where he's gonna bring up even more great points
jessica
any reasonable approach to this would have to break it down issue-by-issue and concede that, if she is a lesser evil at all, it's pretty close to a 50/50 split.
on a hundred random issues, it's going to work out something like 53-47 in her favour.
again: it's by no means obvious. if you want to win this argument, you have to make it first.
SneaksterMK
except one believes in climate change and the other thinks it's a hoax. Although Hillary sold fracking all across the globe she at least won't rip up the fucking Paris agreement like trump said he would. Also I don't think anybody wants another antonin Scalia in the surpreme court
jessica
i don't see any evidence based argument that would suggest that we have any reason to think that hillary would pick a less conservative judge. whether you rip the agreement up or completely ignore it is simply a matter of theatre - it's the same end result, which is absolutely no action whatsoever. empty and entirely meaningless rhetoric aside, the reality is that trump has shown more awareness of climate change through his property investments than clinton did in four years as secretary of state. neither will do anything except drill more and ship more.
at least it doesn't look like trump is taking money from oil sheiks.
SneaksterMK
yes I know they're both extremely hawkish and such a risk. But we all want Bernie sanders policies to be implemented and I think we know that with a trump presidency it would ALL go backwards and we'd have no chance but with a Clinton administration we can at least hold her accountable and we'd have a much better chance of implementing progressive policies. And I feel like climate change is such a dealbreaker to me.... Bernie said it best, we should treat it as a world war 2 style threat and trump saying its a hoax is literally going completely backwards. And I know Hillary has a CLEAR track record of going to war but Mike pence voted for the war in Iraq and trump said he was in favor of invading Iraq. Trump also says as blatant as possible that he's willing to commit war crimes without using ANY coated language... That's dangerous man I'm not comparing him to hitler but even when hitler rose to power he didn't advocate the killing of many civilians... It's scary....
jessica
but, again: trump only claims he'd like to be a war criminal. hillary clinton is the legit thing, and ought to be sent to the hague, not the white house.
puttytat007
Jill Stein is our only hope thinking she can't win is not a valid point.
jessica
well, she won't win. but you can send a message...
It's not a dodge if you genuinely dislike both of them.
jessica
that's right. if i tell you that they're both the same and it doesn't matter, you can disagree with me and tell me i'm wrong. but, don't tell me i'm dodging the question. it's just disingenuous. i really, honestly don't think that hillary is preferable to trump. i'm sorry. we can disagree. but that's how it is.
Dribrom Sunrock
I honestly do not think there will be a next election year if Trump get elected. I'm quite sure he will declare marshal law and say that there will be no more elections until "we have figured things out". I'm not taking any chances. At least I trust Hillary not to burn down the world as we know it during the next 4 years. Voting for a 3rd party is just a too big of a risk IMO. But we should not kid yourself here the house of Representatives will not vote for a 3rd party.
jessica
you can't even spell martial law.
as an aside, a marshall plan for the united states would probably be a good idea.
the way the single-party state has people brainwashed is really astounding. do you realize that the republican party has it's own voters worked up in exactly the same way? that they think hillary will declare an executive order on day one to seize everybody's guns and officially usher in the New World Order(tm)?
this is not even within the realm of constitutional possibility. we will have continuing creeping fascism one way or the other: they're both fascists, after all. but, trump would not actually be legally able to do any of the things you're fantasizing about.
it's far more likely that trump will spend 350 days a year on the golf course.
"fuck this. i'm outta here."
i want to be clear, because i suspect that this is democratic party propaganda: it's not believable. it's laughable. trump couldn't tell his dog to sit. you're running against charlie chaplin, and you're trying to paint him as hitler. it is so unbelievable - so ridiculous - that it may backfire to the point that it is the reason you lose.
the way you beat a guy like trump is that you expose his poor leadership qualities. you don't broadcast him as a strong leader.
"don't vote for my opponent, guys. he's a strong leader. vote for me. i'm less of a leader."
trump is the corrupt, absent ceo. he's the guy that takes credit for the work other people do. he's the lazy, do-nothing, loafer that inherited his dad's job. he doesn't care about anything except his golf game. he'll fiddle while the empire burns. he's corrupt. he's inept. he's incompetent.
if your propaganda comes off as b grade horror film trash, that's the reaction you're going to get to it: that the campaign is unprofessional. amateur. you want the campaign to be like army of darkness? then expect to lose.
just run on the economy. look at his tax policies. they're idiotic. even most republicans can figure that out.
Dribrom Sunrock
It would not be the first time it have happened in USA. During the Civil War, Lincoln continually violated the Constitution, in some cases suspending the entire Constitution that he swore to uphold.
On September 29, 2006, President George W. Bush signed the John Warner National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2007 (H.R. 5122). The law expanded the President’s authority to declare Martial Law under revisions to the Insurrection Act and actually allowed the President to take charge of National Guard troops without state governor authorization.
While certain aspects of the bill were rolled back in 2008, President Obama used the 2012 NDAA to further strengthen the Executive offices ability to declare Martial Law and added provisions that would allow military troops to detain U.S. citizens without a trial.
jessica
lincoln didn't "suspend the entire constitution". but, he had a war in front of him, which allowed him the constitutional prerequisite to suspend the rule of law - whether you like that or not. his declaration of martial law was, in fact, constitutional - and it was limited by congress.
you can't just declare martial law because you feel like it. nor can you suspend the constitution via executive order. the ndaa is a troubling piece of legislation, but it does not remove the basic necessity of war before martial law can be declared. nor does it remove congressional oversight.
i don't believe that my time is well spent in arguing the specifics of constitutional law with paid propagandists. you can choose to listen to me or to ignore me.
SneaksterMK
Kyle literally said it in the video though just because you don't wanna answer the question doesn't mean it doesn't exist since it's reality that Clinton or trump WILL (sadly) become POTUS
jessica
"i don't care which one wins - and neither should you!" is a valid answer. you might not like it. but it's not dodging anything.
i honestly think trump will be less interventionist, and i think that's a good thing. i'm not afraid of the word "isolationist". but, hillary will probably be a little bit more likely to push for deficit spending, which is also a good thing considering we're still on the brink of recession because of a continued deficit of government spending. so, they both have very weak upsides.
neither of the weak upsides overpower the awful downsides. they're equally terrible with all kinds of shit across the spectrum.
you could look at like this:
1) if you want to stop hillary from starting world war three, vote for trump.
2) if you want to stop trump from initiating an american perestroika, vote for hillary.
you're supposed to think one is better than the other?
no. not every set is well-ordered...
SneaksterMK
kyles gonna upload a video tomorrow about Jill stein and the lesser of two evils where he's gonna bring up even more great points
jessica
any reasonable approach to this would have to break it down issue-by-issue and concede that, if she is a lesser evil at all, it's pretty close to a 50/50 split.
on a hundred random issues, it's going to work out something like 53-47 in her favour.
again: it's by no means obvious. if you want to win this argument, you have to make it first.
SneaksterMK
except one believes in climate change and the other thinks it's a hoax. Although Hillary sold fracking all across the globe she at least won't rip up the fucking Paris agreement like trump said he would. Also I don't think anybody wants another antonin Scalia in the surpreme court
jessica
i don't see any evidence based argument that would suggest that we have any reason to think that hillary would pick a less conservative judge. whether you rip the agreement up or completely ignore it is simply a matter of theatre - it's the same end result, which is absolutely no action whatsoever. empty and entirely meaningless rhetoric aside, the reality is that trump has shown more awareness of climate change through his property investments than clinton did in four years as secretary of state. neither will do anything except drill more and ship more.
at least it doesn't look like trump is taking money from oil sheiks.
SneaksterMK
yes I know they're both extremely hawkish and such a risk. But we all want Bernie sanders policies to be implemented and I think we know that with a trump presidency it would ALL go backwards and we'd have no chance but with a Clinton administration we can at least hold her accountable and we'd have a much better chance of implementing progressive policies. And I feel like climate change is such a dealbreaker to me.... Bernie said it best, we should treat it as a world war 2 style threat and trump saying its a hoax is literally going completely backwards. And I know Hillary has a CLEAR track record of going to war but Mike pence voted for the war in Iraq and trump said he was in favor of invading Iraq. Trump also says as blatant as possible that he's willing to commit war crimes without using ANY coated language... That's dangerous man I'm not comparing him to hitler but even when hitler rose to power he didn't advocate the killing of many civilians... It's scary....
jessica
but, again: trump only claims he'd like to be a war criminal. hillary clinton is the legit thing, and ought to be sent to the hague, not the white house.
puttytat007
Jill Stein is our only hope thinking she can't win is not a valid point.
jessica
well, she won't win. but you can send a message...
j reacts to predictive election modelling as pseudo-science
he can explain this away and pull stuff out of his ass all day, the bottom line is that the idea doesn't make any sense. elections are not natural phenomena that can be understood through predictive modelling, they're random and unpredictable events that can at best be guessed at a few days before hand.
an educated political analysis is far more useful than anything this guy will ever come up with. and, that's coming from somebody with advanced degrees in mathematics.
listen to the political pundits, not the statisticians. politics is not physics, and it's just stupid to pretend that it is. this is just not a math problem.
you want to look at snap polls very close to the election, not models months away from it. the role of a model in an election needs to be to properly distribute data from snap polling, not to smooth it out. so, we need to find some way to take polling a few days before the election and apply it properly to the swing states. that's what a good model can do.
trump's numbers seem to rely more on reactions to terrorist attacks than anything else. if the next few months are relatively calm, he has absolutely no chance - and that is a rhetorical term, not a mathematical one. but, you want rhetoric here, not math. don't be fooled by scientific sounding quacks. but, if we see a spate of attacks, he could win on a wave of anti-muslim xenophobia. the clinton campaign has likely calculated the opposite.
put another way: he has to find a way to trick people into making a rash and poorly thought out decision. the data is pretty clear that he doesn't have a chance, otherwise.
but, please do keep in mind that the whole basis of our economy is to trick people into making irrational decisions.
i'm not going to make numbers up out of thin air and then cite arbitrary procedures that you don't understand in order to justify them.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-bullish-on-trump-for-now/
i think he got a bump from orlando, and then another bump from munich. munich just happened to coincide with the convention.
we haven't yet seen a factor that would give clinton a bump. but, i think that's reflective of her failure to frame the narrative. for better or worse, trump appears to be in control of the narrative. that is, the fact that it's august and we're not sure what issues might give her a bump is pretty pathetic.
there's still time for clinton to take control of the narrative, but it seems to me that this election is going to be measured in terms of reactions to global terrorism - and he owns her on that issue, whether her campaign likes it or not.
that doesn't mean he's going to win, mind you. the conservatives controlled the narrative in canada in the last election, but that didn't help them win because they were so unpopular.
she should be running on the economy.
an educated political analysis is far more useful than anything this guy will ever come up with. and, that's coming from somebody with advanced degrees in mathematics.
listen to the political pundits, not the statisticians. politics is not physics, and it's just stupid to pretend that it is. this is just not a math problem.
you want to look at snap polls very close to the election, not models months away from it. the role of a model in an election needs to be to properly distribute data from snap polling, not to smooth it out. so, we need to find some way to take polling a few days before the election and apply it properly to the swing states. that's what a good model can do.
trump's numbers seem to rely more on reactions to terrorist attacks than anything else. if the next few months are relatively calm, he has absolutely no chance - and that is a rhetorical term, not a mathematical one. but, you want rhetoric here, not math. don't be fooled by scientific sounding quacks. but, if we see a spate of attacks, he could win on a wave of anti-muslim xenophobia. the clinton campaign has likely calculated the opposite.
put another way: he has to find a way to trick people into making a rash and poorly thought out decision. the data is pretty clear that he doesn't have a chance, otherwise.
but, please do keep in mind that the whole basis of our economy is to trick people into making irrational decisions.
i'm not going to make numbers up out of thin air and then cite arbitrary procedures that you don't understand in order to justify them.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-bullish-on-trump-for-now/
i think he got a bump from orlando, and then another bump from munich. munich just happened to coincide with the convention.
we haven't yet seen a factor that would give clinton a bump. but, i think that's reflective of her failure to frame the narrative. for better or worse, trump appears to be in control of the narrative. that is, the fact that it's august and we're not sure what issues might give her a bump is pretty pathetic.
there's still time for clinton to take control of the narrative, but it seems to me that this election is going to be measured in terms of reactions to global terrorism - and he owns her on that issue, whether her campaign likes it or not.
that doesn't mean he's going to win, mind you. the conservatives controlled the narrative in canada in the last election, but that didn't help them win because they were so unpopular.
she should be running on the economy.
finalizing on sexual confusion in adolescence (inri013)
audio permanently closed for inri013.
==
this was not initially constructed as a standalone work, but it became one almost the moment that it was constructed. there was always an intent to combine the sexuality themed tracks together at the front of my first record, but the initial idea was something more like frontloading the disc than building a cohesive work. it just happened to build itself up that way, and was truly apparent as such on the very first listen. even the phantom of the opera cover in the middle of the track became topical in a sort of subversive way.
i first broke the piece off into a standalone file in the spring of 2014 as a mirror image to the sequence that ends my second record, which actually *was* consciously written as a single work all the way back in 1996 (and appears that way at the end of the very first demo tape). i thought that if the second record was going to have an epic then the first should as well. as the first six tracks had long been a subset in my mind, this was a natural thing to do. the title of the track was first published as an upload to youtube in mar, 2014 on the deathtokoalas channel, which is now deleted.
i did not initially number these tracks as symphonies due to their incorporation of childish vocals, although i had planned to include them on any symphonic compilation discs, nonetheless. i saw them more as proto-symphonies - or just as beginner epics, where i was finding my feet but ultimately still working out ideas.
it wasn't until i finished reclaiming my 1998 demos from tape at the end of 2015 that i realized that i could resequence my first two records from scratch and republish them as instrumental works. the ability to reclaim these two epics as instrumental works, and consequently as full symphonies, followed as a corollary of this. it was consequently not until january, 2016 that i finally elevated the instrumental reconstruction of this recording to the level of my first official symphony, which is where it will now exist into perpetuity: eternally, finally.
the focus in reconstruction was to erect a final version rather than conform to the original mix, so later versions were prioritized over earlier ones. the first through fourth sections are very similar to the original album mix, whereas the fifth and sixth sections have been replaced with expanded mixes.
once the instrumental version had been constructed for the record, i felt i had lost something by removing the vocals - or at least some of them. in the context of the improved master, i felt an edited vocal take could actually elevate the symphony to a different and surreal level, if presented in the right context. this context could not be on the record, though, which had to be fully instrumental. instead, i decided to place the vocal reconstruction as a standalone single, with the instrumental as a flip side to it.
this is an incredibly dense piece of music that i'm proud to finally place in the serious part of my discography.
written and demoed from 1994-1998. initially constructed in this form in june, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. sequenced on jan 6-7, 2016 from parts that were rebuilt over 2014 & 2015. released jan 7, 2016. finalized on july 29, 2016. this is my first symphony; as always, please use headphones.
section one: initially written & recorded in 1997. re-recorded in 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. remastered from various sources on jan 6, 2016.
section two: initially written in 1994. first full recording in 1996. recreated in mar, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed on july 18, 2015. sequenced jan 6, 2016. vocals added on jan 7, 2016.
section three: initially written by andrew lloyd webber. recorded in 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. remastered from various sources on jan 6, 2016.
section four: originally created in jan, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed on july 5, 2015. expanded & sequenced on jan 6, 2016. vocals added on jan 7, 2016.
section five: written june, 1998. reimagined june, 2001. slightly rearranged and re-rendered at the end of july, 2014. rearranged again at the end of may, 2015. remastered from the 2014 & 2015 sources on jan 6, 2016.
section six: initially written in 1997. recreated in feb, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed july 5, 2015. remixed july 12, 2015. vocals and electronics added on july 16, 2015. sequenced on jan 6, 2016.
==
this was not initially constructed as a standalone work, but it became one almost the moment that it was constructed. there was always an intent to combine the sexuality themed tracks together at the front of my first record, but the initial idea was something more like frontloading the disc than building a cohesive work. it just happened to build itself up that way, and was truly apparent as such on the very first listen. even the phantom of the opera cover in the middle of the track became topical in a sort of subversive way.
i first broke the piece off into a standalone file in the spring of 2014 as a mirror image to the sequence that ends my second record, which actually *was* consciously written as a single work all the way back in 1996 (and appears that way at the end of the very first demo tape). i thought that if the second record was going to have an epic then the first should as well. as the first six tracks had long been a subset in my mind, this was a natural thing to do. the title of the track was first published as an upload to youtube in mar, 2014 on the deathtokoalas channel, which is now deleted.
i did not initially number these tracks as symphonies due to their incorporation of childish vocals, although i had planned to include them on any symphonic compilation discs, nonetheless. i saw them more as proto-symphonies - or just as beginner epics, where i was finding my feet but ultimately still working out ideas.
it wasn't until i finished reclaiming my 1998 demos from tape at the end of 2015 that i realized that i could resequence my first two records from scratch and republish them as instrumental works. the ability to reclaim these two epics as instrumental works, and consequently as full symphonies, followed as a corollary of this. it was consequently not until january, 2016 that i finally elevated the instrumental reconstruction of this recording to the level of my first official symphony, which is where it will now exist into perpetuity: eternally, finally.
the focus in reconstruction was to erect a final version rather than conform to the original mix, so later versions were prioritized over earlier ones. the first through fourth sections are very similar to the original album mix, whereas the fifth and sixth sections have been replaced with expanded mixes.
once the instrumental version had been constructed for the record, i felt i had lost something by removing the vocals - or at least some of them. in the context of the improved master, i felt an edited vocal take could actually elevate the symphony to a different and surreal level, if presented in the right context. this context could not be on the record, though, which had to be fully instrumental. instead, i decided to place the vocal reconstruction as a standalone single, with the instrumental as a flip side to it.
this is an incredibly dense piece of music that i'm proud to finally place in the serious part of my discography.
written and demoed from 1994-1998. initially constructed in this form in june, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. sequenced on jan 6-7, 2016 from parts that were rebuilt over 2014 & 2015. released jan 7, 2016. finalized on july 29, 2016. this is my first symphony; as always, please use headphones.
section one: initially written & recorded in 1997. re-recorded in 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. remastered from various sources on jan 6, 2016.
section two: initially written in 1994. first full recording in 1996. recreated in mar, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed on july 18, 2015. sequenced jan 6, 2016. vocals added on jan 7, 2016.
section three: initially written by andrew lloyd webber. recorded in 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. remastered from various sources on jan 6, 2016.
section four: originally created in jan, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed on july 5, 2015. expanded & sequenced on jan 6, 2016. vocals added on jan 7, 2016.
section five: written june, 1998. reimagined june, 2001. slightly rearranged and re-rendered at the end of july, 2014. rearranged again at the end of may, 2015. remastered from the 2014 & 2015 sources on jan 6, 2016.
section six: initially written in 1997. recreated in feb, 1998. a failed rescue was attempted in 2013. reclaimed july 5, 2015. remixed july 12, 2015. vocals and electronics added on july 16, 2015. sequenced on jan 6, 2016.
Thursday, July 28, 2016
"Ronald Reagan is dead, and the world is no worse off for it. At the best of times, he was an ineffectual dunce. At the worst, he was a dangerous madman who threatened humanity's very survival. He destroyed any residual respect for the presidency left over from Nixon, his moral predecessor. He created unprecedented deficits while simultaneously gutting the principles of the New Deal and the Great Society. He presided over a White House famously unable to govern properly because of his abysmal ignorance and tolerance of a Byzantine mess of corrupt internal fiefdoms. His endless rotation of advisers was a contemptible assortment of thieves, quacks, hypocrites and imbeciles who regularly broke the law of the land, lied shamelessly to Congress and the American people, and hopelessly ensnared themselves in ugly webs of shady and illicit dealings. Reagan claimed to be leading a conservative revolution, but he left the presidency with America mired in debt, more authoritarian, militarized and centralized than ever before, and with a foreign policy that was the laughing-stock of the civilized world."
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/6/8/32553/-
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/6/8/32553/-
you're going to hear a lot of scare mongering over the next several months.
"remember when nader handed bush the election?"
i don't even care if it's true or not. the reality was that gore was just as bad as bush, which is why he couldn't sway left-wing voters.
some of you have short memories. some of you are just young. all of you should read this, to jog your memory.
reality check: al gore was 100% in support of the invasion of iraq, and was even partially responsible for it.
"So this time, if we resort to force, we must absolutely get it right. It must be an action set up carefully and on the basis of the most realistic concepts. Failure cannot be an option, which means that we must be prepared to go the limit. And wishful thinking based on best-case scenarios or excessively literal transfers of recent experience to different conditions would be a recipe for disaster." - al gore on the iraq war, 2002
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2002/02/gore-f20.html
"remember when nader handed bush the election?"
i don't even care if it's true or not. the reality was that gore was just as bad as bush, which is why he couldn't sway left-wing voters.
some of you have short memories. some of you are just young. all of you should read this, to jog your memory.
reality check: al gore was 100% in support of the invasion of iraq, and was even partially responsible for it.
"So this time, if we resort to force, we must absolutely get it right. It must be an action set up carefully and on the basis of the most realistic concepts. Failure cannot be an option, which means that we must be prepared to go the limit. And wishful thinking based on best-case scenarios or excessively literal transfers of recent experience to different conditions would be a recipe for disaster." - al gore on the iraq war, 2002
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2002/02/gore-f20.html
jessica
has she published the changes she claims she wants? thinking back to nafta, the side agreements turned out to be toothless. i don't doubt she'll do some cosmetic changes, it's just...what are they?
levithedbag1
NO SHE HASN'T. I would say if she said one thing and did another we could hold her accountable. BUT then I realized how stupid that statement is. Somehow she has gotten away with murder and deception for more than 25 years. There has to be someone out there that can stop this Clinton Obama mafia. I just can't believe people want her for the US leader. She sold herself like a whore to other countries, countries that want us dead, and big money corps.
jessica
well, i think the media ought to ensure that she does publish these changes some time before the election.
levithedbag1
She wont tip her hand like that. Clinton's don't do accountability and truth. This whole election ha gotten so far out of hand. So comical. How in the heck has all this been allowed to happen. It's embarrassing.
jessica
if she decides not to publish her proposed changes, she should not be surprised when nobody believes her.
i do actually agree, though, that the premise of a presidential candidate claiming she has a policy that she won't tell us is blatantly absurd.
----
they got to joe. oh no! joe! say it ain't so, joe.
bluntly: i think they lied to him and he fell for it.
has she published the changes she claims she wants? thinking back to nafta, the side agreements turned out to be toothless. i don't doubt she'll do some cosmetic changes, it's just...what are they?
levithedbag1
NO SHE HASN'T. I would say if she said one thing and did another we could hold her accountable. BUT then I realized how stupid that statement is. Somehow she has gotten away with murder and deception for more than 25 years. There has to be someone out there that can stop this Clinton Obama mafia. I just can't believe people want her for the US leader. She sold herself like a whore to other countries, countries that want us dead, and big money corps.
jessica
well, i think the media ought to ensure that she does publish these changes some time before the election.
levithedbag1
She wont tip her hand like that. Clinton's don't do accountability and truth. This whole election ha gotten so far out of hand. So comical. How in the heck has all this been allowed to happen. It's embarrassing.
jessica
if she decides not to publish her proposed changes, she should not be surprised when nobody believes her.
i do actually agree, though, that the premise of a presidential candidate claiming she has a policy that she won't tell us is blatantly absurd.
----
they got to joe. oh no! joe! say it ain't so, joe.
bluntly: i think they lied to him and he fell for it.
this is a really bad argument for clinton surrogates. we don't all have the memories of fruit flies...
"So this time, if we resort to force, we must absolutely get it right. It must be an action set up carefully and on the basis of the most realistic concepts. Failure cannot be an option, which means that we must be prepared to go the limit. And wishful thinking based on best-case scenarios or excessively literal transfers of recent experience to different conditions would be a recipe for disaster." - al gore arguing in favour of the iraq war, 2002
here's another historical fact: as a senator in the 90s, al gore voted for the invasion of the first iraq war. unlike in 2002, this put him in the minority. and, he was arguing for regime change during the first bush presidency.
al gore was not just following the status quo on iraq. he was unusually hawkish. he didn't just support the sanctions, he argued for them.
here's an interesting question: how much influence did gore have, directly or indirectly, into clinton's vote for the war?
would gore have invaded iraq? yeah. you betcha he would have.
"So this time, if we resort to force, we must absolutely get it right. It must be an action set up carefully and on the basis of the most realistic concepts. Failure cannot be an option, which means that we must be prepared to go the limit. And wishful thinking based on best-case scenarios or excessively literal transfers of recent experience to different conditions would be a recipe for disaster." - al gore arguing in favour of the iraq war, 2002
here's another historical fact: as a senator in the 90s, al gore voted for the invasion of the first iraq war. unlike in 2002, this put him in the minority. and, he was arguing for regime change during the first bush presidency.
al gore was not just following the status quo on iraq. he was unusually hawkish. he didn't just support the sanctions, he argued for them.
here's an interesting question: how much influence did gore have, directly or indirectly, into clinton's vote for the war?
would gore have invaded iraq? yeah. you betcha he would have.
for those that are curious, i'm going to post the two dominant sources that i'm likely to get actual news from. i tend to watch a lot of boring, wonky stuff as well. but, what are some video news sites that i'd recommend? that i actually have clicked 'subscribe' for?
1) democracy now is really the standard news site on the soft left. but, their biases are well known and it is consequently sometimes a little bit of a problem trying to digest them as a news site rather than as a propaganda outlet. i actually didn't even really consult them at all on the primary, because i knew what i was going to get. there's a few links here and there. but, their contempt for the democratic party is legendary. what i wanted was reporting from a pro-sanders slant, and i knew better than to think i was going to get it from there. the little bit that i saw was critical of sanders for selling out - which just didn't strike me as relevant. i didn't disagree. i just didn't see the use in hearing it. sell out or not, he was far and away the most exciting thing the left had seen in decades. i didn't need a sober analysis from amy & juan.
democracy now:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzuqE7-t13O4NIDYJfakrhw
2) the other site that i normally pay a lot of attention to regarding day-to-day news is the real news network, which is kind of a canadian thing. paul jay used to be employed by our state run media, but got fired for being a communist - or something like that. trnn is not as reliable as democracy now, but it's often more direct. that is, if you want to know what's happening quickly, trnn is often the best primer to hit.
trnn:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrmm_7RDZJeQzq2-wvmjueg
those are the sites i would normally hit for daily news regarding things like geopolitics, not the sites i've been frequenting recently due to the primary.
1) democracy now is really the standard news site on the soft left. but, their biases are well known and it is consequently sometimes a little bit of a problem trying to digest them as a news site rather than as a propaganda outlet. i actually didn't even really consult them at all on the primary, because i knew what i was going to get. there's a few links here and there. but, their contempt for the democratic party is legendary. what i wanted was reporting from a pro-sanders slant, and i knew better than to think i was going to get it from there. the little bit that i saw was critical of sanders for selling out - which just didn't strike me as relevant. i didn't disagree. i just didn't see the use in hearing it. sell out or not, he was far and away the most exciting thing the left had seen in decades. i didn't need a sober analysis from amy & juan.
democracy now:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzuqE7-t13O4NIDYJfakrhw
2) the other site that i normally pay a lot of attention to regarding day-to-day news is the real news network, which is kind of a canadian thing. paul jay used to be employed by our state run media, but got fired for being a communist - or something like that. trnn is not as reliable as democracy now, but it's often more direct. that is, if you want to know what's happening quickly, trnn is often the best primer to hit.
trnn:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrmm_7RDZJeQzq2-wvmjueg
those are the sites i would normally hit for daily news regarding things like geopolitics, not the sites i've been frequenting recently due to the primary.
i've pointed out a few times that kerry was the only modern democratic party candidate that i've supported as an acceptable lesser evil (i didn't even see gore as a lesser evil...), and i actually think he's done a truly super-human job in cleaning up the absolute disaster that clinton left the state department in. he remains probably the only person in the democratic party upper echelon that i would really seriously consider voting for. and, i've enjoyed a lot of his speeches as secretary - although i should point out that just as many of them are pretty orwellian. he's not as bad as biden on the orwellian front (at this very summit, biden had the temerity to present columbia as an example of american leadership in fighting corruption.), but he can get a little staggering sometimes. still, i find his speeches a lot more inspiring than anybody else in the club. i know that's the exact opposite of the media narrative, but that's pretty expected for me.
i watch this stuff when i eat. i don't put aside time for it. but, i think this overlaps with what i was saying about fat shaming and why it's so important that we all fat shame our kids into consuming what they need and not what they want.
to be clear.
gore: not a lesser evil.
kerry: a lesser evil.
obama: not a lesser evil.
clinton: not a lesser evil.
don't expect me to ease up on her. i keep saying it. i never eased up on obama. i never eased up on gore, either.
well, i gave obama a bit of a break for a few months after he got elected. i gave him a chance, you could say.
i watch this stuff when i eat. i don't put aside time for it. but, i think this overlaps with what i was saying about fat shaming and why it's so important that we all fat shame our kids into consuming what they need and not what they want.
to be clear.
gore: not a lesser evil.
kerry: a lesser evil.
obama: not a lesser evil.
clinton: not a lesser evil.
don't expect me to ease up on her. i keep saying it. i never eased up on obama. i never eased up on gore, either.
well, i gave obama a bit of a break for a few months after he got elected. i gave him a chance, you could say.
j reacts to the extreme social coercion that exists around fossil fuel culture
actually, the fact is that i don't have a driver's license.
the truth is that i've never wanted one. the reasons were always largely environmental. i always said that i may revisit the point if the infrastructure allows for electric vehicles, but i've learned since then that this was somewhat naive: the manufacturing process is awful enough that merely switching to electric is not enough of a solution. or, not for me, anyways. i wouldn't buy an electric car unless it was made from 100% recycled material.
right now, i mostly walk everywhere out of a combination of necessity and circumstance. my bicycle is out of order. i haven't prioritized fixing it because i wouldn't really use it right now if i could. that will change once they get the new bridge to detroit built.
so, fuck your cars. i don't want them. and, you shouldn't, either.
the truth is that i've never wanted one. the reasons were always largely environmental. i always said that i may revisit the point if the infrastructure allows for electric vehicles, but i've learned since then that this was somewhat naive: the manufacturing process is awful enough that merely switching to electric is not enough of a solution. or, not for me, anyways. i wouldn't buy an electric car unless it was made from 100% recycled material.
right now, i mostly walk everywhere out of a combination of necessity and circumstance. my bicycle is out of order. i haven't prioritized fixing it because i wouldn't really use it right now if i could. that will change once they get the new bridge to detroit built.
so, fuck your cars. i don't want them. and, you shouldn't, either.
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