the numbers coming out of south korea are the ones you want to take more seriously, as they are an oecd country that has tested sufficiently well and has already been through the bulk of this.

this is probably mostly over in south korea. and, what are the mortality rates?

it's interesting to see these numbers pull themselves out, as 7% and 4.5% and 1.5% are numbers that i'm frequently pulling out of calculations - which, i'll be quick to catch myself, doesn't actually mean anything, but just is kind of consistent...

so, the reported death rate in italy right now is around 7%, and almost all of the cases are very old people.

the mortality rate in the united states was initially around 7%, and is still about that in washington state, where the deaths are largely linked to nursing homes.

and, the (published.) mortality rate in iran has fallen from 7% to 4.5% as the number of cases has increased, perhaps reflecting the fact that the average lifespan in iran is almost ten years less than that in italy - which makes sense.

on the other hand, the death rates in france and spain have hovered closer to 1.5%, making me wonder how old the people that are dying are.

you need more subtle ways to analyze this than just dividing the deaths by the number of cases. and, for now, south korea is the best place to get the data. in a month or two, you'll probably want to be looking at data for northern europe, but they're that much behind, for now.

7% is 1/15. roughly. are you going to give your grandparents such low odds?