Monday, June 4, 2018
once again: i don't have depression.
i'm not a depressed person.
i don't need treatment for depression.
what i have is a social disorder that makes me exceedingly agitated around fucking idiots, and unable to deal with people. i get angry when i'm agitated in this way and can potentially get violent.
i just need to be left alone.
and i can't deal with this fucking pothead. i'm on the brink of going down there and beating the shit of her.
i'm not a depressed person.
i don't need treatment for depression.
what i have is a social disorder that makes me exceedingly agitated around fucking idiots, and unable to deal with people. i get angry when i'm agitated in this way and can potentially get violent.
i just need to be left alone.
and i can't deal with this fucking pothead. i'm on the brink of going down there and beating the shit of her.
i mean, this is what i had to say about the last american election: it was clear that the polling put clinton ahead, but just as clear that trump was going to steal the election. so, i predicted that clinton would win if the polls were fair, but stated clearly that trump was going to win because i knew they weren't.
it's not nearly as clear that ford has the power to do this, but there's clearly something fishy afoot.
it's not nearly as clear that ford has the power to do this, but there's clearly something fishy afoot.
there is of course also a possibility that these companies are all paid off and pushing fake numbers to split the vote.
i have to read the data as it is, i can't imagine it says something else.
but, if the liberals come back from the dead at the last minute, we should be pointing fingers at the pollsters for manipulating data to split the vote.
i have to read the data as it is, i can't imagine it says something else.
but, if the liberals come back from the dead at the last minute, we should be pointing fingers at the pollsters for manipulating data to split the vote.
so, what's the narrative here?
it seems like the tory media intended to do the following:
1) attack wynne.
2) prop up the ndp.
together, this would split the vote, and allow the conservatives to win in ridings they normally aren't competitive in.
but, what has happened instead is that this has backfired - the liberal vote has moved entirely to the ndp, and we're going to get an ndp majority.
maybe a huge one.
that said...
i've seen some articles where ford is criticizing the voting machines, and this is often done to deflect an attempt to cheat. if we start seeing the conservatives win in downtown toronto...
it seems like the tory media intended to do the following:
1) attack wynne.
2) prop up the ndp.
together, this would split the vote, and allow the conservatives to win in ridings they normally aren't competitive in.
but, what has happened instead is that this has backfired - the liberal vote has moved entirely to the ndp, and we're going to get an ndp majority.
maybe a huge one.
that said...
i've seen some articles where ford is criticizing the voting machines, and this is often done to deflect an attempt to cheat. if we start seeing the conservatives win in downtown toronto...
forum is always sketchy.
but, those numbers aren't very different than what was projected for the pcs four years ago, and in the end they only got 30 seats. due to systemic bias in telephone polling, you always need to take the pcs down to the bottom of the error bar and then some, so they're probably running around 34-35.
the big difference is movement from the liberals to the ndp, and it seems to be really monolithic. the numbers in the 905 - which is where the conservatives were supposed to win seats - are most surprising. with a decent sample size, and some consistency, it's starting to look the ndp could be making a huge breakthrough.
i understand that the firms are using likely voter data, but they're undoing their own numbers. why are so many liberals claiming they'll vote ndp if they aren't going to?
again: despite the commentary, i'm looking at this and not seeing any good reason to think the conservatives will win more than 40 seats.
the ndp could be on track to win 80 seats.
but, those numbers aren't very different than what was projected for the pcs four years ago, and in the end they only got 30 seats. due to systemic bias in telephone polling, you always need to take the pcs down to the bottom of the error bar and then some, so they're probably running around 34-35.
the big difference is movement from the liberals to the ndp, and it seems to be really monolithic. the numbers in the 905 - which is where the conservatives were supposed to win seats - are most surprising. with a decent sample size, and some consistency, it's starting to look the ndp could be making a huge breakthrough.
i understand that the firms are using likely voter data, but they're undoing their own numbers. why are so many liberals claiming they'll vote ndp if they aren't going to?
again: despite the commentary, i'm looking at this and not seeing any good reason to think the conservatives will win more than 40 seats.
the ndp could be on track to win 80 seats.
there she goes again.
9:00 am on a monday morning. high as a kite. place smells like a dead skunk's asshole. it's truly absolutely revolting. thankfully, i've got some air flow this morning.
i need to reiterate that the reason i can't just deal with this is that i need to be recording in here, eventually, and i need to be clear-headed to do it. i know there's a popular mythology that musicians do drugs in the studio, but it's just completely wrong - it's a complete myth, a complete fantasy.
the ability to ensure sobriety when recording is paramount; this place is worthless to me if i can't do that.
9:00 am on a monday morning. high as a kite. place smells like a dead skunk's asshole. it's truly absolutely revolting. thankfully, i've got some air flow this morning.
i need to reiterate that the reason i can't just deal with this is that i need to be recording in here, eventually, and i need to be clear-headed to do it. i know there's a popular mythology that musicians do drugs in the studio, but it's just completely wrong - it's a complete myth, a complete fantasy.
the ability to ensure sobriety when recording is paramount; this place is worthless to me if i can't do that.
i'm a little slow to get started today, but i'm back at it, now.
i've got a breeze blowing directly in, which is nice. this apartment only has windows on one side, so i only get a breeze when the wind blows one way. so, that's helped with ventilation. the stench has come up a few times, but i'm not feeling any effects from it just right now.
i'm going to lose the day, but hopefully i'll be past this tomorrow.
i've got a breeze blowing directly in, which is nice. this apartment only has windows on one side, so i only get a breeze when the wind blows one way. so, that's helped with ventilation. the stench has come up a few times, but i'm not feeling any effects from it just right now.
i'm going to lose the day, but hopefully i'll be past this tomorrow.
well, this is less contentious than wynne's statement, but equally less realistic, as well.
i am hoping he wins this seat, but my vote is more about helping the party with funding next time around.
i'll be clear that my riding is probably going to go ndp by a large margin. if local polling is to be believed, the greens may actually beat the liberals in this region - harsh considering they won two elections ago.
i was worried about ford controlling the muslim vote here, they are running muslims in all of the ridings around here, but there doesn't appear to be any actual evidence that this is happening. or, perhaps i overestimated the size of the muslim minority, here.
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-news/mike-schreiner-says-best-way-to-hold-ndp-or-pcs-accountable-is-to-elect-green-mpps-942770
i am hoping he wins this seat, but my vote is more about helping the party with funding next time around.
i'll be clear that my riding is probably going to go ndp by a large margin. if local polling is to be believed, the greens may actually beat the liberals in this region - harsh considering they won two elections ago.
i was worried about ford controlling the muslim vote here, they are running muslims in all of the ridings around here, but there doesn't appear to be any actual evidence that this is happening. or, perhaps i overestimated the size of the muslim minority, here.
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-news/mike-schreiner-says-best-way-to-hold-ndp-or-pcs-accountable-is-to-elect-green-mpps-942770
the idea is that the best thing i can do is help the greens oppose the ndp on the left. if the ndp are as.....disappointing.....as i expect, the liberals will gain a lot of support back. but, that opens up a space for the greens on the left of the ndp.
i've written this essay elsewhere; ontario is deindustrializing, and i follow malatesta in his view that workers really have the same interests as capital, which we've seen in the ndp's behaviour over and over, so we need a new concept of the left - and i think it's a libertarian left that seeks distributive justice over things like food and land, seeking to put them in common, while abolishing obsolete concepts like currency. in some ways, it's a retreat to a peasant left, but that's why it's important to ensure it's paired with support for automation and green energy production.
i don't think there's any future in workers politics, when unionized workers are such a small percentage of the population. and, as mentioned, it's hard to get excited about standing up for people that are making products that are wrecking the planet.
we'll have to see what this ndp government looks like, but i expect it to pivot to the right fairly quickly, and for it to come out of it's mandate seeming very right-wing. liberals might be scared right now; they shouldn't be, as the ndp would just be giving them their voters back. if the liberals are going to pretend to be the ndp, voters will eventually vote ndp; as we saw with mulcair, when the ndp pretends to be the liberals, voters just vote liberal. it's a nicely symmetrical truth.
don't get me started on symmetry (or the lack thereof). alas...
but i keep reminding you that i'm not a liberal. not technically, anyways. and, i want to prop up an option on the left, if the ndp insist on hugging the centre.
i've written this essay elsewhere; ontario is deindustrializing, and i follow malatesta in his view that workers really have the same interests as capital, which we've seen in the ndp's behaviour over and over, so we need a new concept of the left - and i think it's a libertarian left that seeks distributive justice over things like food and land, seeking to put them in common, while abolishing obsolete concepts like currency. in some ways, it's a retreat to a peasant left, but that's why it's important to ensure it's paired with support for automation and green energy production.
i don't think there's any future in workers politics, when unionized workers are such a small percentage of the population. and, as mentioned, it's hard to get excited about standing up for people that are making products that are wrecking the planet.
we'll have to see what this ndp government looks like, but i expect it to pivot to the right fairly quickly, and for it to come out of it's mandate seeming very right-wing. liberals might be scared right now; they shouldn't be, as the ndp would just be giving them their voters back. if the liberals are going to pretend to be the ndp, voters will eventually vote ndp; as we saw with mulcair, when the ndp pretends to be the liberals, voters just vote liberal. it's a nicely symmetrical truth.
don't get me started on symmetry (or the lack thereof). alas...
but i keep reminding you that i'm not a liberal. not technically, anyways. and, i want to prop up an option on the left, if the ndp insist on hugging the centre.
so, i've made up my mind on this.
i'm willing to accept an ndp win, but i'm not willing to vote for them because i think they're running a dishonest campaign; i'm also of the view after watching this campaign that the liberals need a time-out, and i'm not willing to vote for them, either. i still prefer the liberal platform. so, i'm left with the choice of whether i want to vote green or not.
i've decided that i do, because i expect them to play a role in the next election, and the candidate here doesn't seem to be one of those goofy libertarian green capitalism pro-market doofuses - she's the kind of green party candidate i'm willing to support.
i like the idea of abolishing catholic schools, too.
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-the-green-party-is-finally-invited
i'm willing to accept an ndp win, but i'm not willing to vote for them because i think they're running a dishonest campaign; i'm also of the view after watching this campaign that the liberals need a time-out, and i'm not willing to vote for them, either. i still prefer the liberal platform. so, i'm left with the choice of whether i want to vote green or not.
i've decided that i do, because i expect them to play a role in the next election, and the candidate here doesn't seem to be one of those goofy libertarian green capitalism pro-market doofuses - she's the kind of green party candidate i'm willing to support.
i like the idea of abolishing catholic schools, too.
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-the-green-party-is-finally-invited
racial profiling is not something that happens when you have individual police officers breaking ranks and being racist.
rather, racial profiling is something that happens when you have police departments that train police officers to treat minorities differently than the majority.
and, the solution has to go to the very core of the training.
cops aren't accidentally racist. cops are trained to be racist.
rather, racial profiling is something that happens when you have police departments that train police officers to treat minorities differently than the majority.
and, the solution has to go to the very core of the training.
cops aren't accidentally racist. cops are trained to be racist.
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