re: quarantine and the coronavirus

i am not opposed to quarantine, in principle, and think anybody arguing that it's racist to quarantine people are making specious arguments. if a white person comes back from china, is it racist to quarantine them, too? 

but, if you're going to quarantine somebody in 2020, you'd better make sure you're backed up by the science, and, with this virus, the science just doesn't support that. they're getting hit in china, but china is still a very poor place, overall, and it's broadly treatable, in the context of first world science.

i would support a quarantine if the science warranted it; i think that would be an acceptable rights restriction. but, the science to make that call isn't there, and appeals to avoid taking chances are not warranted.

somebody should turn those stupid groundhogs into a delicious stew.

it's easy to forget that it wasn't that long ago that people were so ignorant that they actually believed this stuff, or that there are still places in the world today where people remain this ignorant.

but, if it were up to me, we'd stop doing this. nothing good can come from it.

so, i stopped to set up a match account:

https://www.match.com/profile/V1uLHTYIk3Lxwae4rLEVtw2

why?

because i've been getting the idea for a while that some people might find something like that useful.

i will probably never check that profile, ever. it's just there for general reference. so, interpret it as you may.

so, i'm halfway done cleaning. i've got my fruit put away, which is literally enough to last me the rest of february. it's something about the winter, i guess, but i tend to end up with a very full fridge in february.

and, i got my day's bowl of fruit, before i sat down, and i had to sit down, it happens. i'm just about to get back up and finish cleaning....

the last post tried the link as http instead of https and that's not it. it's the link to wikipedia that's being filtered. 

again: all i can do is tell the people that are doing this that they're busted, that it's unwelcome, that i never signed up for it and that i''d like it to stop.

i have not yet found any actual evidence of missing posts, but if i ever do then i'll need to switch platforms again. i have zero tolerance for that. i won't use the platform, and i'll tell other people to get off of it, too. as a platform provider, you have an obligation to ensure reliability in transmission, and you will see your market collapse if you fuck with that. trust me.....that's your responsibility here, and if you don't take it seriously, it's going to hurt you.

i will remind you that i will likely be endorsing the greens this election, rather than anybody running in the democratic election. it would appear that the most likely candidate is howie hawkins, and i would feel the need to support him at this point, instead of bernie sanders:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howie_Hawkins

he may also win the socialist party ticket, creating a united green/socialist front, with decidedly libertarian tendencies. i'd like to hope that's a stable coalition, actually. if i was to join one of these clubs, i'd want to join the green anarchist club.

there is no party that perfectly represents my views, and i'm not going to change my views to align with the party, that's backwards thinking - voters pick parties, parties don't create voters. so, i'm sure i'll have lots of disagreements with them, and i'm sure they'll find things here they don't like. that's fine, we can have those debates. maybe i'll convince them, in the end. but, the point is that i ultimately don't care about party orthodoxy, or making friends, or fitting in or joining clubs - i am an independent, isolated voice that cares about identifying which party apparatus i believe is most likely to advance my self-interests, and that would appear to be the greens at this point, and not the democrats.

i will remind you that i will likely be endorsing the greens this election, rather than anybody running in the democratic election. it would appear that the most likely candidate is howie hawkins, and i would feel the need to support him at this point, instead of bernie sanders:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howie_Hawkins

he may also win the socialist party ticket, creating a united green/socialist front, with decidedly libertarian tendencies. i'd like to hope that's a stable coalition, actually. if i was to join one of these clubs, i'd want to join the green anarchist club.

there is no party that perfectly represents my views, and i'm not going to change my views to align with the party, that's backwards thinking - voters pick parties, parties don't create voters. so, i'm sure i'll have lots of disagreements with them, and i'm sure they'll find things here they don't like. that's fine, we can have those debates. maybe i'll convince them, in the end. but, the point is that i ultimately don't care about party orthodoxy, or making friends, or fitting in or joining clubs - i am an independent, isolated voice that cares about identifying which party apparatus i believe is most likely to advance my self-interests, and that would appear to be the greens at this point, and not the democrats.

let's try without the wiki post.

===========

i will remind you that i will likely be endorsing the greens this election, rather than anybody running in the democratic election. it would appear that the most likely candidate is howie hawkins, and i would feel the need to support him at this point, instead of bernie sanders:

(there was a wiki link to howard hawkins, here)

he may also win the socialist party ticket, creating a united green/socialist front, with decidedly libertarian tendencies. i'd like to hope that's a stable coalition, actually. if i was to join one of these clubs, i'd want to join the green anarchist club.

there is no party that perfectly represents my views, and i'm not going to change my views to align with the party, that's backwards thinking - voters pick parties, parties don't create voters. so, i'm sure i'll have lots of disagreements with them, and i'm sure they'll find things here they don't like. that's fine, we can have those debates. maybe i'll convince them, in the end. but, the point is that i ultimately don't care about party orthodoxy, or making friends, or fitting in or joining clubs - i am an independent, isolated voice that cares about identifying which party apparatus i believe is most likely to advance my self-interests, and that would appear to be the greens at this point, and not the democrats.

this link was not archived:

http://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2020/02/i-will-remind-you-that-i-will-likely-be.html

there's going to be wide variability. it's going to be all over the place. it's part of the reason these things are so hard to predict.

but, my own feeling about how the results of your average precinct will look are going to be something like this on the first ballot:

biden: 25%

sanders: 23%

buttigieg: 20%

---------------------------

warren: 14%

klobuchar: 14%

rest: 4%

to be clear - i think warren is going to miss a lot of cut-off points. i think this is a three-way race, not a two-way race. and, i think klobuchar will almost catch her, or even beat her.

....in iowa. specifically.

where do those numbers go? 

i know people want to think that warren supporters will go to sanders, but they're missing the point about why they're not supporting sanders in the first place. the data i've seen actually suggests that a lot of warren voters are going to go to buttigieg first, and then sanders and biden in roughly equally numbers.

klobuchar's numbers will mostly split between buttigieg and biden.

and, let's give sanders a slight bias for the remaining 4, to be fair.

so, the second round looks like this:

biden: 25 + 3 (warren) + 6 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 35
buttigieg: 20 + 8 (warren) + 6 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 35
sanders: 23 + 3 (warren) + 2 (klobuchar) + 2 (rest) = 30

that's what i think your average district looks like on the second ballot, if warren fails to meet the threshold, which i think she will more often than not.

but, what if i'm wrong and she surprises me? then you'd end up with something like this:

biden: 25 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 31
sanders: 23 + 2 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 26
buttigieg: 20 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 25
warren: 15 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 20

i think that's more in line with the broad perception, right now. and, you can see the general benefit that sanders gains from having warren in the race, even if this wasn't the cabal's intent - democrats that won't vote for him will vote for her.

but, i think there's a lot of reasons to think that warren is going to do very badly tomorrow and more or less need to end her candidacy next week. we'll find out...

where'd i go?

i guess i shut down around 7:00 yesterday morning, and i took a few grocery trips in the morning. i got my usb keyboard, and some replacements for some plates i broke (they may be too flimsy. we'll see.) as well. i stopped in the afternoon, got something to eat and passed out in the afternoon. i was up around 11:00 and finished eating...

i went past my eating schedule because i made too much pasta last week and then had eggs this week instead. i have to eat the pasta up. that means i'm going to be eating a lot of fruit for the next few weeks.

i didn't finish cleaning and need to get to that before i start reassembling the laptop, piece by piece.

is it really the wireless? is it just the system board? well, there's a lot of coincidences, aren't there? let's do some testing and find out.

and, as i've stated repeatedly:

i completely reject the concept of property rights.

that makes it very hard for me to organize on the right, and is the reason why i call myself an anarcho-communist, rather than an anarcho-capitalist. but, it's the communist that's the more important component of this than the anarchist.

if your'e a kind of typical centre-left democrat, and you find me appalling, it's probably the communist part of the thing that's pissing you off more than the libertarian part. after all, anarcho-communism is a sort of a redundancy.

but, i don't vote or align on social issues, and i think that's a big part of the disconnect, because so many people do - they're looking to join a club, to meet friends, to be a part of a movement. i'm just sorting through pamphlets and trying to figure out which one i agree with, and then going home to work on my art. i don't want to join your club, or be your friend or join your movement. so, the social issues actually don't even matter much to me.

so, i might support targeted bombing in iran to eliminate the religious leadership and make way for a populist uprising of secularist forces, and i might vote for it in a referendum, which is something no right-libertarian would support, fwiw, but it would be about 163rd on the list of issues in a general voting decision, one way or the other, and i wouldn't think twice about voting for somebody that opposed it, or somebody that supported it, if their positions properly aligned with mine on things i care more about.

what i vote on is economic issues, and, whatever you think of my views on social issues (i'd argue they're extreme left, and that's why you're averse to them.), my economics views are decidedly communist, decidedly anti-market, decidedly anti-property, and outright hostile to the libertarian right.

they're the people i'm least likely to get along with on the issues i care most about.

so, as i've said repeatedly - i'm not a bourgeois liberal. i'm definitely not a conservative, of any type. and, i'm not a libertarian, either.

i am actually the anarcho-communist that i keep telling you i am.

i will remind you that i will likely be endorsing the greens this election, rather than anybody running in the democratic election. it would appear that the most likely candidate is howie hawkins, and i would feel the need to support him at this point, instead of bernie sanders:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howie_Hawkins

he may also win the socialist party ticket, creating a united green/socialist front, with decidedly libertarian tendencies. i'd like to hope that's a stable coalition, actually. if i was to join one of these clubs, i'd want to join the green anarchist club.

there is no party that perfectly represents my views, and i'm not going to change my views to align with the party, that's backwards thinking - voters pick parties, parties don't create voters. so, i'm sure i'll have lots of disagreements with them, and i'm sure they'll find things here they don't like. that's fine, we can have those debates. maybe i'll convince them, in the end. but, the point is that i ultimately don't care about party orthodoxy, or making friends, or fitting in or joining clubs - i am an independent, isolated voice that cares about identifying which party apparatus i believe is most likely to advance my self-interests, and that would appear to be the greens at this point, and not the democrats.