wow.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6912844/shopify-rbc-canada-company-coronavirus/
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
has the governor been to a grocery store recently?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html
our authoritarian response may actually be having the effect of converting a flu-like illness into a serious pandemic, by maximizing the amount of damage it can do, by slowing it down.
as a result, the death rate in sweden may end up .05% or lower - and up to ten times that in places where the government is pushing down social distancing, which is 5x worse than my conceptual model.
how do you understand this apparent contradiction, where social distancing increases the number of deaths?
i posted this picture back on pi day:
if sweden followed the red curve, it saw an immediate spike, but should now see almost no deaths, as the virus is no longer being carried. that means there's still a lot of vulnerable people out there, but the virus is no longer finding their way to them.
everybody else followed the blue curve, which saw smaller number of deaths to start but, ultimately, higher levels of spread, due to lower immunity. this means that more vulnerable people - twice as many, according to the (conceptual) calculation of the area under the curve - are likely to end up sick and die.
i know this is counter-intuitive, but don't listen to me, look at the data.
i posted this picture back on pi day:
if sweden followed the red curve, it saw an immediate spike, but should now see almost no deaths, as the virus is no longer being carried. that means there's still a lot of vulnerable people out there, but the virus is no longer finding their way to them.
everybody else followed the blue curve, which saw smaller number of deaths to start but, ultimately, higher levels of spread, due to lower immunity. this means that more vulnerable people - twice as many, according to the (conceptual) calculation of the area under the curve - are likely to end up sick and die.
i know this is counter-intuitive, but don't listen to me, look at the data.
so, are they peaking in sweden, then?
it looks like it...
and, that's what? around 3000 deaths? plus or minus?
if it burns out to a trickle over the next few days, there's not going to be any choice but to conclude they've reached something approaching functional immunity, at least in the active population, which could have the effect of largely burning it out, even if they still have to deal with small scale outbreaks for the next forever, like everybody else.
but, what is the damage?
if we calculate 3299 deaths in total out of a population of 10,501,043, that's .031415926% - which proves that this was the optimal strategy, after all.
at a herd immunity of 66.6%, which we have no idea is true or not, 10501043*.666*x = 3299 <---> x = .047%. so, that is your true death rate, which is equivalent to the flu.
no, stop - this is empirical. this is the best data we have. but, it does seem a little low....
the other hypothesis is that maybe herd immunity doesn't require two thirds of the population, but something less than that, and maybe the antibody data coming out of new york and elsewhere is grounds for that, as well.
so, what if herd immunity is actually achieved by this disease at 50% exposure? then the death rate becomes .063% - not a big jump.
what if it's 33%? then you're still barely getting at the .1% that i've been lowballing at.
but, let's get the point - the experiment in sweden seems to be winding down, and while the swedes themselves might be disappointed that it got into the old folks' homes (a problem that exists everywhere.), the data we're getting out of it is lowballing the lowballs.
you'd have to struggle to pull a .1% death rate out of these numbers.
it looks like it...
and, that's what? around 3000 deaths? plus or minus?
if it burns out to a trickle over the next few days, there's not going to be any choice but to conclude they've reached something approaching functional immunity, at least in the active population, which could have the effect of largely burning it out, even if they still have to deal with small scale outbreaks for the next forever, like everybody else.
but, what is the damage?
if we calculate 3299 deaths in total out of a population of 10,501,043, that's .031415926% - which proves that this was the optimal strategy, after all.
at a herd immunity of 66.6%, which we have no idea is true or not, 10501043*.666*x = 3299 <---> x = .047%. so, that is your true death rate, which is equivalent to the flu.
no, stop - this is empirical. this is the best data we have. but, it does seem a little low....
the other hypothesis is that maybe herd immunity doesn't require two thirds of the population, but something less than that, and maybe the antibody data coming out of new york and elsewhere is grounds for that, as well.
so, what if herd immunity is actually achieved by this disease at 50% exposure? then the death rate becomes .063% - not a big jump.
what if it's 33%? then you're still barely getting at the .1% that i've been lowballing at.
but, let's get the point - the experiment in sweden seems to be winding down, and while the swedes themselves might be disappointed that it got into the old folks' homes (a problem that exists everywhere.), the data we're getting out of it is lowballing the lowballs.
you'd have to struggle to pull a .1% death rate out of these numbers.
don't do this.
the kid will hate you for it and just change it as soon as they can. i've seen it happen...
i have no intention to procreate, but, if i ever did, and i had anything to do with it, i'd insist on something like _____ as the official name. a placeholder.
that's essentially all they're really doing, anyways.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6905662/elon-musk-grimes-baby-name/
the kid will hate you for it and just change it as soon as they can. i've seen it happen...
i have no intention to procreate, but, if i ever did, and i had anything to do with it, i'd insist on something like _____ as the official name. a placeholder.
that's essentially all they're really doing, anyways.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6905662/elon-musk-grimes-baby-name/
i was waiting for an update on this.
so, if all goes according to plan, i should have enough electricity credits saved up to get back to work very soonish.
https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/05/ontario-extends-electricity-rate-relief-during-covid-19.html
so, if all goes according to plan, i should have enough electricity credits saved up to get back to work very soonish.
https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/05/ontario-extends-electricity-rate-relief-during-covid-19.html
this is so far beneath any concept of contempt as to be impossible to actually believe.
jason kenney, you must resign immediately.
your reaction should be a difference of scale beyond outrage. and, if there was ever any doubt in your mind, there should not be - this perverse catastrophe must be permanently and thoroughly shut down.
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-suspends-19-oilsands-environmental-monitoring-requirements-coronavirus-concerns/
jason kenney, you must resign immediately.
your reaction should be a difference of scale beyond outrage. and, if there was ever any doubt in your mind, there should not be - this perverse catastrophe must be permanently and thoroughly shut down.
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-suspends-19-oilsands-environmental-monitoring-requirements-coronavirus-concerns/
"why don't you just stop taking them, then?"
because the amount of intellectual freedom that i've gained from emancipating myself from my sex drive is immeasurable. i don't want to go back to having this urge to masturbate all of the time, i hated it. my mind is now free for everything else that the world has to offer....
if the system is going to force me to choose, i'd rather live a short life in emancipation of sex than a long life in enslavement to it.
it would take minutes. it's not a strain on the system. they're not over-capacity. they are merely refusing service due to ideological reasons, and at the expense of their hippocratic oath - they are terrible doctors, and should be publicly berated for it.
but, what do i do?
i can't do anything...
because the amount of intellectual freedom that i've gained from emancipating myself from my sex drive is immeasurable. i don't want to go back to having this urge to masturbate all of the time, i hated it. my mind is now free for everything else that the world has to offer....
if the system is going to force me to choose, i'd rather live a short life in emancipation of sex than a long life in enslavement to it.
it would take minutes. it's not a strain on the system. they're not over-capacity. they are merely refusing service due to ideological reasons, and at the expense of their hippocratic oath - they are terrible doctors, and should be publicly berated for it.
but, what do i do?
i can't do anything...
an orchiectomy is a minor procedure that can be done within a few minutes in the office of the specialist. it requires arranging a trip home as walking may be difficult, but it doesn't require invasive surgery or a trip to the er.
costs are a few thousand dollars, which i'd rather spend on something i'm not covered for, but i need to get on with this and get off these pills.
costs are a few thousand dollars, which i'd rather spend on something i'm not covered for, but i need to get on with this and get off these pills.
it's not frivolous, either.
1) given that i haven't used them in years and years, and i never want to use them again, they're really just a cancer risk. if i end up getting a tumour in there, can i hold them liable for refusing to treat me? it's just an empty, unused lump of tissue - it's a cancer risk.
2) the drugs that i take to reduce my testosterone levels to a functional near zero (which is on purpose. because i fucking hate testosterone.) are relatively hard on my liver. i've been on them for ten years, now, which is longer than anybody is supposed to be on them for. if i could get the testicles out, i could get off these drugs that are hard on my liver.
but, all that these fucking morons want to talk about is god.
fuck your stupid, imaginary, bullshit god....
how did they even become doctors?
1) given that i haven't used them in years and years, and i never want to use them again, they're really just a cancer risk. if i end up getting a tumour in there, can i hold them liable for refusing to treat me? it's just an empty, unused lump of tissue - it's a cancer risk.
2) the drugs that i take to reduce my testosterone levels to a functional near zero (which is on purpose. because i fucking hate testosterone.) are relatively hard on my liver. i've been on them for ten years, now, which is longer than anybody is supposed to be on them for. if i could get the testicles out, i could get off these drugs that are hard on my liver.
but, all that these fucking morons want to talk about is god.
fuck your stupid, imaginary, bullshit god....
how did they even become doctors?
i don't understand why people second guess others on this.
if i go into a doctor's office and tell you point blank that i want you to take my testicles away, that's something i've thought about. frankly, i don't care about your opinion, and think you're a narcissistic asshole for even presenting one - i'm here to have them out, so just shut the fuck up and get rid of them.
this should be no hassle, no questions asked and more or less on demand.
it's baffling to me that i have to win an argument, first, and that the people i'm tasked with arguing with are largely disinterested in it.
it's not the system, here - this is covered.
but, the doctors here are all religious, and it's kind of putting me in a culture shock.
who'd have thought that the most substantive interaction with religion that i will ever have in my life comes in trying to convince a doctor to snip my testicles out? why do i have to lower myself to such stupidity?
if i go into a doctor's office and tell you point blank that i want you to take my testicles away, that's something i've thought about. frankly, i don't care about your opinion, and think you're a narcissistic asshole for even presenting one - i'm here to have them out, so just shut the fuck up and get rid of them.
this should be no hassle, no questions asked and more or less on demand.
it's baffling to me that i have to win an argument, first, and that the people i'm tasked with arguing with are largely disinterested in it.
it's not the system, here - this is covered.
but, the doctors here are all religious, and it's kind of putting me in a culture shock.
who'd have thought that the most substantive interaction with religion that i will ever have in my life comes in trying to convince a doctor to snip my testicles out? why do i have to lower myself to such stupidity?
let me try to get up to eat.
but, the other thing was with the doctor, today....
i went in today to rebook an appointment, because the line just rings when i call. i was told they're not booking until after covid-19 and i should come back later, which struck me as being runaround. i was told i could book by phone, but i can't reach them by phone, and, besides - the appointment is for a physical, which cannot and should not be done over the phone. anybody billing ohip for a "virtual physical" should be charged with fraud.
i offered to just rebook next year, and that was not met well. they told me to come back in a few weeks...
what i was concerned with was ensuring that i didn't lose my status as a patient, but that concern didn't seem to register with staff in a way that really rubbed me the wrong way.
so, am i potentially dealing with transphobic staff at the windsor family health centre? i don't know.
what i know is this: i deal with transphobia by rubbing my tits in your face. so, if they want to be stupid about it, i'll be happy to make a scene about it.
right now, i've decided to play stupid for a little while. i am awaiting results from this doctor on reassignment concerns (i am trying to get my testicles removed, and nobody seems to want to do it...), and i want to consider changing my hormones to prometrium.
i'm going to send them a fax about the issue...
but, the other thing was with the doctor, today....
i went in today to rebook an appointment, because the line just rings when i call. i was told they're not booking until after covid-19 and i should come back later, which struck me as being runaround. i was told i could book by phone, but i can't reach them by phone, and, besides - the appointment is for a physical, which cannot and should not be done over the phone. anybody billing ohip for a "virtual physical" should be charged with fraud.
i offered to just rebook next year, and that was not met well. they told me to come back in a few weeks...
what i was concerned with was ensuring that i didn't lose my status as a patient, but that concern didn't seem to register with staff in a way that really rubbed me the wrong way.
so, am i potentially dealing with transphobic staff at the windsor family health centre? i don't know.
what i know is this: i deal with transphobia by rubbing my tits in your face. so, if they want to be stupid about it, i'll be happy to make a scene about it.
right now, i've decided to play stupid for a little while. i am awaiting results from this doctor on reassignment concerns (i am trying to get my testicles removed, and nobody seems to want to do it...), and i want to consider changing my hormones to prometrium.
i'm going to send them a fax about the issue...
the fact is that montreal did everything right. it was maybe slower than it should have been to crack down on the religious minorities, but that's not something unique to it.
expect toronto to be next - i said mid-to-late-may, and it seems like it may be in the latter category.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/swamped-montreal-hospitals-told-to-send-covid-19-patients-to-off-island-centres/
expect toronto to be next - i said mid-to-late-may, and it seems like it may be in the latter category.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/swamped-montreal-hospitals-told-to-send-covid-19-patients-to-off-island-centres/
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