i think you're going to find it's a mirage. when polievre was running at 40%+ it was mirage, and carney running at 40%+ is also a mirage.
the question that you need to ask when looking at the numbers is if they're going to translate into seats, and it's unclear where. the liberals are actually up a lot in conservative areas, for the obvious reason that carney is a more convincing and appealing conservative than polievre. is that going to get them seats? where?
at most, a 10% bump in alberta might win them one seat. where's ralph? a 15% bump in saskatchewan might get his seat back.
the liberals are also up 5% in ontario, which is a lot of voters, but where are those voters? are they in safe liberal ridings? or is carney going to swing rural ontario?
if the liberals are going to win seats, it will probably be in quebec, but the three or four way split is tricky, and it may be the case that carney is just going to sweep montreal by huge margins.
i have a habit of making non-standard projections based on my reading of the polls, and i have flubbed it a few times, but i usually get it right when the mainstream media analysis doesn't.
right now, carney has nowhere to go but down, he peaked too early.
my projection: liberal minority. it might be a stronger liberal minority, but it will still be a liberal minority.
unfortunately, the ndp appears set to lose the balance of power, leaving it with the bloc, or resulting in an unworkable parliament.