27-03-2016: a couple of rants (day spent planning april concert schedule)

tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1

hopefully, the cuts never get restored at all. and that really would look a lot better!

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-budget-defence-milewski-1.3506670

strangely, i now want to go buy some tannerite. which, it turns out, is a brand name rather than a scientific compound. no mention of their competitors, usa today? what's the profit in a stealth ad like this? excellent marketing, though. have to hand it to the company. great way to get a leg up on their competition.

tannerite: it'll blow your socks off.

you're making an incredible error in your perception that non-voting implies passivity, as though the idea is that trump wins and everybody goes home for four years. bernie or bust is a movement to reject the ballot box as ineffectual and move strictly to civil disobedience. what it is saying is that bernie is the system's last chance to listen, before the plug gets pulled. that doesn't mean apathy. it doesn't mean go home and get drunk. it means general strikes. it means million person marches, it means total war against the state. and, frankly, if you're taking this kind of entirely antagonistic approach, it doesn't matter if it's hillary or trump. in fact, there's not even a contradiction in voting for hillary and then going out and organizing the general strike.

it's been converted into a fashion trend, which will be it's own death knell once a new fashion trend appears. in the meantime, the kids are just looking for an excuse to copy the new trend. this is this year's party. next year, it will be some other thing.

it's frustrating that you still have all these people that think they can co-opt the media using it's own methods, only to repeatedly come face-to-face with movement collapse precisely *because* they tried to use those methods. by now, you'd think these lessons would be learned. but, leftists are not good at learning lessons. far too many of us seek our answers in a theory and are unwilling to adjust to evidence as it comes in.

they're not ideologues. they're not zealots. in fact, if you talk to them, you'll find out that a lot of them are centrist conservatives (although they may not realize it). they're just sheep following the latest fashion trend.

so, the facts in the case don't actually matter. what matters is being in the right place and having the right slogan on your tshirt.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/black-lives-matter-toronto-loku-1.3508462

furnace is leaking... (update)

the drip seems to be around the seal, rather than in the plastic - it was just accumulating on the plastic.

i have taped over the area. i know that this defeats the purpose of the drainage, but my prerogative is in keeping the water off of the floor. and, i suspect that the issue is upstairs, anyways.

i'm going to guess that the seal probably needs to be recaulked. but that the issue is probably really in the furnace.

j

j reacts to the racist primary modeling, again

i already debunked this kind of thinking. but, i'll do it again: specifically as it applies to west virginia and kentucky. this is a racist analysis, by npr. and it should be challenged. strenuously.

these are conservative, deep southeastern states. the white population in these states (and also in indiana, which was ignored) should be expected to behave the same way as the white populations in the similar states around them. tennessee. virginia. southern ohio, too. and, clinton carried the white population in these states by very large margins.

these are results from march 1.

arkansas: 80% white. 66% clinton.
tennessee: 67% white. 66% clinton.
texas: 46% white. 66% clinton.
virginia: 61% white. 64% clinton.

what you see when you look at those results is that support for clinton remains stable, while race fluctuates. what that means is that race is not a predictor variable. and that's a proof!

again: the media will not cease, nor will they desist. the media is racist. it is a part of their job to be racist. but they must be called out on it at every opportunity.

voters make decisions based on the content of their characters, not on the colour of their skins.

and, clinton should be expected to carry the white vote in kentucky, west virginia and indiana by significant to overwhelming margins.

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/27/472056754/despite-the-math-bernie-sanders-has-already-won

shit hillary said vol 11

"History shows us that a strong regional architecture can bring to bear incentives for cooperation and disincentives for provocation and problematic behaviors. But this kind of architecture does not just spring up on its own, just as NATO and other aspects of the post-World War II architecture didn’t just happen. It takes consistent effort, strong partnerships, and crucially, American leadership. And that is, at core, what our strategy in the Asia Pacific is all about. All of our actions – diplomatic, economic, and military – are designed to advance this goal. Let me offer three examples about how it works."

...

"Here’s a second example, which demonstrates how strong rules and norms matter in people’s lives. As part of that same trip last November, the President built momentum for a new far-reaching trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership that we are negotiating with eight other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This agreement is not just about eliminating barriers to trade, although that is crucial for boosting U.S. exports and creating jobs here at home. It’s also about agreeing on the rules of the road for an integrated Pacific economy that is open, free, transparent, and fair. It will put in place strong protections for workers, the environment, intellectual property, and innovation – all key American values. And it will cover emerging issues such as the connectivity of regional supply chains, the competitive impact of state-owned enterprises, and create trade opportunities for more small-and-medium-sized businesses."

j reacts to the mar 26 primary results

my hawaii argument was based on the idea that hawaii would vote similarly to other pacific island states, but it was never presented with much confidence. there wasn't any polling done, and the demographic modelling is anti-scientific and should be rejected. i always said that this idea was preliminary and subject to modification by incoming data. all anybody could have given you was an inference (that is, a guess). one could have argued that sanders should have won because it was a caucus, but hawaii had a secret ballot so the logic of peer pressure is kind of funny. nor is hawaii a white state. i think the better analysis is likely to invert my argument. i had essentially suggested that clinton should be favoured because of greater name recognition, in what is really a distant colony (and that was the pattern in the other pacific island states). what was probably true in the end was that the name recognition worked against her - which is to say it was probably less about a vote for sanders and more about a vote against clinton. turnout does not seem to have been low, either. for substantive policy: how about the asia pivot, and concern about clinton starting a war in the pacific? there's no polling, so all one can do is make stuff up.

either way, that buffers the loss in arizona a little. even still, it looks like he's about 25 delegates behind where i said he should be. but, i also suggested that he only really needs to split wisconsin. he now needs to have wisconsin act more like minnesota than illinois in order to make up the difference. he should still be aiming for 200 going into new york. and, he absolutely must win new york.

i would not advise taking early polls seriously. but, it is a closed primary. and, the results in massachusetts and illinois would suggest a split is more likely than a win.