ontario did have a stable tory majority up until 1985.
that was over 30 years ago.
since then, we've undergone a major generational change. and, today, there are wide swaths of the province where there are less native-born citizens than immigrants. in 1968, the country was almost totally white; today, there are wide swaths of toronto where white people are literal minorities.
the canada that exists today has essentially no meaningful connection to the canada that existed in the past. and, one is being generous as pointing to patriation as a new starting point; i wouldn't even bother looking at data from before the last referendum. canada as we know it today is really a creation of the last generation.
again: i prefer the sitting government's policies. and, i'm savvy enough to know that i'm watching politics. but, in tapping into this rather trumpian concept of moral indignation and self-righteous conservatism (traits usually associated with progressivism, not liberalism), wynne is trying to appeal to a past that not only never existed, but never existed in a country that no longer exists; she's selling a fantasy reality to voters that don't exist, and never existed.
again: causality is hard to determine. i'm pointing a lot at the media. but, at the very least wynne is not helping herself at all - and hasn't been since day one.
this is a co-ordinated strategy of potentially disastrous miscalculation.
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
"fuck tha police" is a cultural slogan, it's not a threat to power or a statement of defiance. it's a multi-million dollar industry. it's the status quo.
what this actually is is just another example of kathleen wynne putting her foot in her mouth. and, the more she insists on appealing to some imaginary concept of a silent majority, the more her numbers collapse.
the reality is that her moral indignation at a "fuck tha police" sign probably just cost her 3-5 points in downtown toronto, where she needs to win to avoid annihilation. and, she probably doesn't understand why she sounds racist when she says what she's saying.
sadly, the dog whistles are coming from kathleen wynne this election, not from doug ford. and, there's some sad underlying truth to it: the liberals are the party of upper-class white torontonians, and don't seem to really understand the world from outside of their bubble.
they've been doing this since before the election. and i pointed out here quite a while ago that the party has this weird conservative streak, and that it could very well be a wildcard in the election.
wynne needs to be trying to win the votes of the people she just alienated by attacking a slogan at the heart of their movement. and, she's not remotely cognizant of what she just did.
what this actually is is just another example of kathleen wynne putting her foot in her mouth. and, the more she insists on appealing to some imaginary concept of a silent majority, the more her numbers collapse.
the reality is that her moral indignation at a "fuck tha police" sign probably just cost her 3-5 points in downtown toronto, where she needs to win to avoid annihilation. and, she probably doesn't understand why she sounds racist when she says what she's saying.
sadly, the dog whistles are coming from kathleen wynne this election, not from doug ford. and, there's some sad underlying truth to it: the liberals are the party of upper-class white torontonians, and don't seem to really understand the world from outside of their bubble.
they've been doing this since before the election. and i pointed out here quite a while ago that the party has this weird conservative streak, and that it could very well be a wildcard in the election.
wynne needs to be trying to win the votes of the people she just alienated by attacking a slogan at the heart of their movement. and, she's not remotely cognizant of what she just did.
i agree. this is terrible.
he's got the preposition definite article completely wrong. it's despicable. like he's never even heard the fucking song.
could we could all consult our album covers for a second?
so, we're in agreement: fuck tha police. not fuck "the" police. like you're some tight-ass, grammar correcting, fucking cracker or something.
he's got the
could we could all consult our album covers for a second?
so, we're in agreement: fuck tha police. not fuck "the" police. like you're some tight-ass, grammar correcting, fucking cracker or something.
there is now a 0% chance that i'm going to vote for the liberals in the next federal election.
sorry.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4238702/ottawa-buy-trans-mountain-pipeline-project-4-5b/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopular&utm_campaign=2014
sorry.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4238702/ottawa-buy-trans-mountain-pipeline-project-4-5b/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopular&utm_campaign=2014
this isn't a poll.
and it's just regurgitating tory media talking points.
so, don't take this very seriously...
....but, it's still putting the liberals ahead in the 416.
the mainstreet data is more reliable. but, this pushes home the point: that if the liberals can find a way to sweep toronto again, in the end, then it doesn't matter if they're running at 7% in the rest of the province.
toronto has roughly half the province's population. (7 + 35)/2 = 21. so, if they are running at 21 percent provincially, and are running at 7% outside of toronto, that means they must be running in the mid to high 30s in toronto.
they are the toronto party. they've been that way for years. they still win, though.
like i say: i trust the mainstreet data better. i'm just pointing out it could be wrong and the results are potentially profound if it is.
and it's just regurgitating tory media talking points.
so, don't take this very seriously...
....but, it's still putting the liberals ahead in the 416.
the mainstreet data is more reliable. but, this pushes home the point: that if the liberals can find a way to sweep toronto again, in the end, then it doesn't matter if they're running at 7% in the rest of the province.
toronto has roughly half the province's population. (7 + 35)/2 = 21. so, if they are running at 21 percent provincially, and are running at 7% outside of toronto, that means they must be running in the mid to high 30s in toronto.
they are the toronto party. they've been that way for years. they still win, though.
like i say: i trust the mainstreet data better. i'm just pointing out it could be wrong and the results are potentially profound if it is.
the beer test.
is that what ford's focus on beer-o-nomics is really about? i dunno.
i think i can understand why some out of touch tory elitists might think ford wins beer tests, but, it's a pretty bizarre understanding of the ontario electorate. i bet doug ford could win a beer test in wisconsin, or maybe upstate new york, but in downtown toronto?
doug ford is the guy that wants to buy me a beer, and that i try to get away from all night.
so, would i rather have a beer with one of the other two, then?
i might rather smoke a joint with andrea horwath, rather than have a beer with her. i have no idea what her habits are. but, beer drinking is more about talking about the weather, whereas toking is when you get into the fun intellectual discussions and poke at each other's ideas a little bit.
kathleen wynne is like the person at the other end of the bar, and while i wouldn't doubt that she's enjoying her beer (or glass of wine, or margarita, as it may be), any discussion would be likely to be terse and maybe a little awkward. it's a class thing, actually.
but, the point i wanted to make is this: if this is really about beer tests, the tories have an insulting and downright outdated concept of ontarians.
is that what ford's focus on beer-o-nomics is really about? i dunno.
i think i can understand why some out of touch tory elitists might think ford wins beer tests, but, it's a pretty bizarre understanding of the ontario electorate. i bet doug ford could win a beer test in wisconsin, or maybe upstate new york, but in downtown toronto?
doug ford is the guy that wants to buy me a beer, and that i try to get away from all night.
so, would i rather have a beer with one of the other two, then?
i might rather smoke a joint with andrea horwath, rather than have a beer with her. i have no idea what her habits are. but, beer drinking is more about talking about the weather, whereas toking is when you get into the fun intellectual discussions and poke at each other's ideas a little bit.
kathleen wynne is like the person at the other end of the bar, and while i wouldn't doubt that she's enjoying her beer (or glass of wine, or margarita, as it may be), any discussion would be likely to be terse and maybe a little awkward. it's a class thing, actually.
but, the point i wanted to make is this: if this is really about beer tests, the tories have an insulting and downright outdated concept of ontarians.
so, this is what i was looking for: some actual data. don't misunderstand me: i'd like a larger sample size. but, aggregating data doesn't work like you think it does.
the most important bar here is the number for toronto. this is the first data i've seen that suggests that the fortress in toronto is cracking. trying to determine causality in context is perilous, but i'm going to suggest that all of the media telling people that the liberals can't win is finally seeping into the base - and they've flipped over to the ndp in droves.
if i'm right, and the media strategy was to prop the ndp up to try to split the vote, then this appears to have backfired. and, it may provide an answer to a long-running dispute that i've had with right-leaning liberal party supporters, who argued that ignatieff got beat by strategic voters moving to the conservatives to stop the ndp. that was the most transparent pile of bullshit from the start.
one of the things the media is forgetting to tell you is that the liberals have been uncompetitive outside of toronto (and ottawa) for years, anyways - and that there are enough seats in toronto that they could win by being the toronto party. they did that in 2014. so, this narrative isn't a new development. but, what is a new development is that idea that they're running in third in toronto, and, if that's true, they're going to get decimated pretty badly.
i know not to put everything into one poll, but we only have one poll.
and, i'm still skeptical about how well this polling is doing in measuring the breadth of the movement that's happening, or in modelling actual turnout on the ground.
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-surge-past-pcs-into-the-lead/
the most important bar here is the number for toronto. this is the first data i've seen that suggests that the fortress in toronto is cracking. trying to determine causality in context is perilous, but i'm going to suggest that all of the media telling people that the liberals can't win is finally seeping into the base - and they've flipped over to the ndp in droves.
if i'm right, and the media strategy was to prop the ndp up to try to split the vote, then this appears to have backfired. and, it may provide an answer to a long-running dispute that i've had with right-leaning liberal party supporters, who argued that ignatieff got beat by strategic voters moving to the conservatives to stop the ndp. that was the most transparent pile of bullshit from the start.
one of the things the media is forgetting to tell you is that the liberals have been uncompetitive outside of toronto (and ottawa) for years, anyways - and that there are enough seats in toronto that they could win by being the toronto party. they did that in 2014. so, this narrative isn't a new development. but, what is a new development is that idea that they're running in third in toronto, and, if that's true, they're going to get decimated pretty badly.
i know not to put everything into one poll, but we only have one poll.
and, i'm still skeptical about how well this polling is doing in measuring the breadth of the movement that's happening, or in modelling actual turnout on the ground.
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-surge-past-pcs-into-the-lead/
it was a long day and i crashed hard at the end.
there was a moment when i stopped drinking - around 4:00 - where i had to sit down for a minute due to overheating. it was like 40 degrees, and highly humid, in the second club. i eventually went out for some fresh air around 6:00 and then couldn't acclimatize back to it, so i left. but, the night is clear all the way through.
i'll update this post after i get my habitual nachos.
(it is now after 3:00 on the 30th)
====
this night was meant to be very long, starting at about 14:00 on monday and going until early on tuesday - 6? 7? 8? it wasn't clear how this was going to work....
it was more like 15:30 when i got to the actual bar, which was somewhere i hadn't been to before. i figured if i'm going to the tv lounge i should dress in drag, right?
(i'm not a transvestite, and i don't dress in drag)
the fact is that it was so hot out that i didn't have to use the washroom at all, for the entire 10 hours i was there, despite drinking seven beers over the period. again: 7 drinks in ten hours isn't excessive at all, it's just a long day drinking. i guess my body decided it didn't have any extra fluid to excrete.
the reason i went to this party is that it was supposed to focus on 'german techno', which is somewhat of an unclear description, as it could refer to anything. i think i was expected something a little more atmospheric and electro-gazey, tangerine dream set to a hard beat sort of thing, but instead walked into what was essentially a dungeon somewhere in east germany that was playing very minimalist digital hardcore at a fast bpm. i kind of felt like blixa bargeld should have come out of nowhere and hit me over the head with a gong, before preceding to the light the place on fire - or that david bowie should have appeared as an apparition and complained that that fucking wanker eno was getting all of the credit for his work. i went in there a few times early in the night and had some fun doing aerobics, but it became pretty clear early on in the night that the actual party was happening outside. staub, itself, appeared to be pretty much dead.
the fact is that it was fucking beautiful outside. 30+ degrees well into the night. the humidity was still thick in the air when i left at around 1:30. not a cloud in the sky. just fucking perfect weather. who wants to spend a night like that locked in a dungeon doing cardio when there's a well-populated dance party happening on a patio a few feet away?
that said, i would have probably stayed in the german techno club if one of two things were true: (1) if the music outside sucked or (2) if the party inside picked up. i could be wrong, but i don't think the party inside ever picked up. and, the music outside had a sparse, british feel to it that i'd actually usually prefer over anything german. i picked up a few autechre samples.
it seems like the party outside was actually partially organized by some kids from pittsburgh, so i seem to have gone to a detour records festival as much as the german techno festival i meant to go to. but, listen: i should be happy that i had an escape from an empty party.
staub may want to think about publishing line-ups in the future.
the first set i got into was marc lansley, who seems to be a little obscure, but something i want to take a closer note of because i actually found it to be one of the most interesting sets i've heard in real time. he did something i wish more people did, which was play with the syncopation. so, he had us dancing to 16th note articulations on shuffle beats, and what not. it was less exquisite, and more just awkward - cracked out beats for lack of a better term. samples crashing into each other and creating a mess. and, while a couple of people were looking around wondering how they got to this strange place, i found the deviation from orthodoxy to be rather exhilarating. detroit has no market for art techno, but if there are people listening, let it be known that i'd love to see more sets like this. i can't find anything substantive online.
the next two sets were the kids from pittsburgh, and it was a little looser and a bit funkier. a bit more soul. i danced a bit, but i was in and out of the dungeon - and left to get smokes around 21:30. i didn't go back in the dungeon after i got back.
i caught most of the next set, and spent the bulk of it dancing. i'm going to claim it wasn't particularly memorable, but that i had a good time with it nonetheless. it got me moving without making me cringe...
i was in the yard there for much of the last set, but i spent a good deal of it sitting. it was a little funkier, more soul, and i tend to interpret that as sort of cringey.
i got to the second bar a little before 2:00 and think i got most of all of the sets. i only bought one drink here and finished it a little after 4:00 and had to sit down around 4:30-4:40-ish; what i was doing was sweating, and i was less drunk and more dehydrated. i just had to let the wave pass. you get that or you don't. but i was legit drenched by the time i stood up. so, i caught whatever was on from 2:00-4:30. again: it got me dancing with no clear complaints. asher perkins kicked me on the way past me, presumably to "wake me up", and i caught what i think was the bulk of his set, after 5:00. i've seen him spin enough that he did actually seem to kick me to get up, which is a lot i guess, and what i'll say is he's definitely filling out his sound a little: there's just more and more stuff happening. he really filled the place up. i was out around 6:00, then back in, and then out again around 6:30 - after experiencing some fresh air, my body told me to stay out and breathe it in. i just wasn't getting enough oxygen in there. and, this party ended at 7:00...
so, if i was there from 2:00-6:30 i must have caught most of everything, even if i'm not totally sure if i was actually a foot away from antwon faulkner for an hour or not. it was dark. and i was dancing...
there was a moment when i stopped drinking - around 4:00 - where i had to sit down for a minute due to overheating. it was like 40 degrees, and highly humid, in the second club. i eventually went out for some fresh air around 6:00 and then couldn't acclimatize back to it, so i left. but, the night is clear all the way through.
i'll update this post after i get my habitual nachos.
(it is now after 3:00 on the 30th)
====
this night was meant to be very long, starting at about 14:00 on monday and going until early on tuesday - 6? 7? 8? it wasn't clear how this was going to work....
it was more like 15:30 when i got to the actual bar, which was somewhere i hadn't been to before. i figured if i'm going to the tv lounge i should dress in drag, right?
(i'm not a transvestite, and i don't dress in drag)
the fact is that it was so hot out that i didn't have to use the washroom at all, for the entire 10 hours i was there, despite drinking seven beers over the period. again: 7 drinks in ten hours isn't excessive at all, it's just a long day drinking. i guess my body decided it didn't have any extra fluid to excrete.
the reason i went to this party is that it was supposed to focus on 'german techno', which is somewhat of an unclear description, as it could refer to anything. i think i was expected something a little more atmospheric and electro-gazey, tangerine dream set to a hard beat sort of thing, but instead walked into what was essentially a dungeon somewhere in east germany that was playing very minimalist digital hardcore at a fast bpm. i kind of felt like blixa bargeld should have come out of nowhere and hit me over the head with a gong, before preceding to the light the place on fire - or that david bowie should have appeared as an apparition and complained that that fucking wanker eno was getting all of the credit for his work. i went in there a few times early in the night and had some fun doing aerobics, but it became pretty clear early on in the night that the actual party was happening outside. staub, itself, appeared to be pretty much dead.
the fact is that it was fucking beautiful outside. 30+ degrees well into the night. the humidity was still thick in the air when i left at around 1:30. not a cloud in the sky. just fucking perfect weather. who wants to spend a night like that locked in a dungeon doing cardio when there's a well-populated dance party happening on a patio a few feet away?
that said, i would have probably stayed in the german techno club if one of two things were true: (1) if the music outside sucked or (2) if the party inside picked up. i could be wrong, but i don't think the party inside ever picked up. and, the music outside had a sparse, british feel to it that i'd actually usually prefer over anything german. i picked up a few autechre samples.
it seems like the party outside was actually partially organized by some kids from pittsburgh, so i seem to have gone to a detour records festival as much as the german techno festival i meant to go to. but, listen: i should be happy that i had an escape from an empty party.
staub may want to think about publishing line-ups in the future.
the first set i got into was marc lansley, who seems to be a little obscure, but something i want to take a closer note of because i actually found it to be one of the most interesting sets i've heard in real time. he did something i wish more people did, which was play with the syncopation. so, he had us dancing to 16th note articulations on shuffle beats, and what not. it was less exquisite, and more just awkward - cracked out beats for lack of a better term. samples crashing into each other and creating a mess. and, while a couple of people were looking around wondering how they got to this strange place, i found the deviation from orthodoxy to be rather exhilarating. detroit has no market for art techno, but if there are people listening, let it be known that i'd love to see more sets like this. i can't find anything substantive online.
the next two sets were the kids from pittsburgh, and it was a little looser and a bit funkier. a bit more soul. i danced a bit, but i was in and out of the dungeon - and left to get smokes around 21:30. i didn't go back in the dungeon after i got back.
i caught most of the next set, and spent the bulk of it dancing. i'm going to claim it wasn't particularly memorable, but that i had a good time with it nonetheless. it got me moving without making me cringe...
i was in the yard there for much of the last set, but i spent a good deal of it sitting. it was a little funkier, more soul, and i tend to interpret that as sort of cringey.
i got to the second bar a little before 2:00 and think i got most of all of the sets. i only bought one drink here and finished it a little after 4:00 and had to sit down around 4:30-4:40-ish; what i was doing was sweating, and i was less drunk and more dehydrated. i just had to let the wave pass. you get that or you don't. but i was legit drenched by the time i stood up. so, i caught whatever was on from 2:00-4:30. again: it got me dancing with no clear complaints. asher perkins kicked me on the way past me, presumably to "wake me up", and i caught what i think was the bulk of his set, after 5:00. i've seen him spin enough that he did actually seem to kick me to get up, which is a lot i guess, and what i'll say is he's definitely filling out his sound a little: there's just more and more stuff happening. he really filled the place up. i was out around 6:00, then back in, and then out again around 6:30 - after experiencing some fresh air, my body told me to stay out and breathe it in. i just wasn't getting enough oxygen in there. and, this party ended at 7:00...
so, if i was there from 2:00-6:30 i must have caught most of everything, even if i'm not totally sure if i was actually a foot away from antwon faulkner for an hour or not. it was dark. and i was dancing...
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