after failing to confirm their motion on the 6th, the landlords have legitimately forgotten to reserve me and appear to have filed a document with the wrong date on it. that motion won't be heard.

this application costs around $400, plus labour for the lawyer, and it puts it off to at least the 1st of november, as motions are only heard on fridays. they won't get the money back. they'll have to pay it again.

the most likely outcome is it for it be rescheduled to next year, anyways, and the longer this takes, the less sense it makes. i overheard some rescheduling motions on friday, and i'm likely to get to trial before they can file to cancel me. yet, those slots in april are also filling up and, the longer this takes, the higher the chance that april fills up, too.

so i may be safe here for quite a while. it's looking like november, 2025, but i don't want to still be here by then.

the situation is toxic and unsafe (for me) and i need to get out. if you can make some purchase as an act of charity or altruism to help get me out of here, please do.

maybe they should have thought about the consequences of their actions before they acted. israel is acting out of self-defense, and that is a legal act.

iran is not the west's primary enemy, it's a relatively small country with a long history of being destroyed by outsiders because it has historically been poorly governed by authoritarian regimes and has been on the brink of collapse, once again, for decades. it won't take much for israel to topple the jenga tower over.

the united nations should be helping israel to remove the terrorist regime in iran and return iran to the international community and iran is delusional to expect otherwise.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-it-will-respond-decisively-if-israel-attacks-asks-un-to-intervene/

the russians saw the americans lining up in poland, clearly intending to move in. so, they struck first.

the russian operative was to move the war west, so that it was fought in ukraine instead of in russia. this is ukraine's longstanding purpose to moscow, after all, as a buffer state, even if it would rather that buffer state be poland than ukraine.

america's purpose in digging in has been to bleed russian resources, take out some ships, etc. the hope is that it can reduce russia's strategic capabilities. this has clearly backfired, as america is having difficulty producing missiles and munitions, and the cost of the war has become a major political issue that is negatively impacting the popularity of the current administration.

russia has since annexed four provinces in southeast ukraine that were absorbed into russia in the distant past and were appended to ukraine by khruschev during the soviet period. this was supposed to russify ukraine, which was a fine enough idea when the soviet union existed, but has resulted in a region that russia considers a part of russia outside of russia, after the collapse of the union. these areas are also russian-speaking.

by annexing the regions to russia, putin can claim he is expelling ukrainian invaders from russian territory, which is an awkward claim but has some convoluted logic to it.

while it seems on it's face that the russians are halted due to incompetence, given these competing objectives, it is possible that they were trying to create a trench and dig in, a la world war one, or at the very least were slowing down the process on purpose. this is after all what the russians want - to fight the war in ukraine, if the americans insist on fighting it. winning would actually be counter-productive, then, as the americans would just start another war somewhere else. so long as this trench across ukraine exists a distance from russia, the russians basically get what they want.

however.

the russians have recently been moving west: 

i picked that graphic for a reason. look at it carefully.

there is a jagged grey line in the middle of the picture. that line is the official border of the russian federation.

what happens when russia gets to that line? does it stop?

will it get there before the reinauguration of donald trump in january? if it does, this slow trudge west could produce the conditions for a truce.

is that what the russians wanted all along?

is that why this is taking so long?

i'm going to rephrase what i said previously.

the iranian threat to israel gives the pentagon an excuse to get out of ukraine before it becomes a massive drag on american resources, like vietnam was.

if they don't get out soon, that's the inevitable outcome, and we'll be talking about them getting out eventually, after having squandered trillions and after having gained nothing.

seems like the biden administration wants trump to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/world/middleeast/us-israel-military-aid-gaza-improvements.html