so, again - they seemed to let the clark county results through first, which has redistorted the results. i'd expect them to balance back out again as the results finish up.

it appears as though biden will be viable in 2 out of 17 counties, whereas buttigieg will be viable in 15 out of 17, and there is precisely no overlap. so, my projection was actually correct.

the exact results in clark county were pretty dramatic, though. 25% isn't exactly a barnstorming result, but it is better than his polling, and that's a first this cycle, if it holds (and there's still reasons to think it will weaken). and, if buttigieg was going to miss viability in just one out of 17 counties, the one with 70% of the population is the worst one for it to happen in. he could still sneak over 15%, but this seems to contradict his kind of steady-eddy results. he really does about the same across most demographics.

is it possible that biden stuffed some ballots? well, clark county is one of the counties that people cheat in rather frequently, so it might be the answer to the shape of the data, and it might be the difference in the outcome. i'd be surprised if he didn't try a few times. but, the truth is that you probably want to criticize buttigieg for not cheating, when sanders and biden knew you had to. that's a lack of experience, maybe. it's not the red flag we saw in new hampshire, and i'm not willing to point any fingers. but, understand that this is a county that establishment democrats tend to stuff ballots in, so the burden of proof is probably the other way. and, i didn't really think that through carefully enough, either.

so, i'm standing by my analysis, but i'm conceding that i didn't extrapolate deeply enough.

sanders is running about where i suggested, buttigieg is viable almost everywhere and biden only made the cut in two counties. it's just that the population skews in such a way that the outcome is a little different than such an analysis might naively project, even if the spread between biden & buttigieg does shrink a little in the end.

sanders clearly did very well with latin-speaking voters, and that's not a surprising outcome. but, did biden manage to finally get over 20% in one county because of the "diversity" in it? i think that you might find a correlation, but that's probably not the cause.

rather, i suspect that an analysis of the data will show that biden did well with what you might call the rank and file, and that the fact that they showed up this time is really what the difference is. the rank and file would include certain types of unionized workers, seniors and other people that exist within the nuts and bolts of the democratic party machinery. again - 25% and a distant second place is hardly a show of force. but, that's what has made vegas a little different, the actual party machinery.

if buttigieg can't get to 15% in vegas in the end, he should be disappointed by it. this is vegas, specifically, literally. the ready-made excuses aren't going to work, here.

i'm a little surprised, but we could still see the numbers normalize.

i believe that 13 delegates will be awarded statewide, and they will mostly go to sanders. of the rest of the delegates, i believe that only 6 of them will be awarded to candidates that are viable in las vegas. the rest will be distributed to candidates that did will in the other districts. i think there's actually 18 of 36 delegates to award in the three districts that biden failed to reach viability in, and buttigieg succeeded to do so in.

that means that buttigieg will probably still get more delegates.

but, what i wanted to point out before the machine crashed was that i'm not planning on doing a review for the debussy show just right now, as there's still some open thoughts revolving around what happened.

it's hard to write a review about something, when you're not entirely certain what happened. i think i'm feeling good enough to make it to man or astroman tomorrow.

so, there's my bluescreen driver error.

"apc_index_mismatch"

i have never seen that before, i have absolutely no idea at all what it means and i have absolutely no interest in learning about it or looking it up. i have absolutely zero interest in this topic, whatsoever. but, i'm going to presume it's the same basic bullshit - that they're trying to install something remotely, and can't.

like, fuck off.

but, i wasn't done what i was doing, so i'm essentially going to need to instantly reimage, and get back to it within a few hours. i need to be using that machine for a few more days, still.

i'm going to stop to get some fruit, first.

on friday afternoon, the prime minister proclaimed by decree that "the time has come" to take the blockades down.

the media coverage around this has been bizarre, with several publications producing headlines that more or less claim that the protesters are "defying" the prime minister, as though he has any authority in the matter.

i would suggest that the time has come, but for something else.

i've been up since friday morning now, which is a good sign. and, i guess the question of whether that's due to something i did, or something they did, is potentially answerable by any response to this post, although i would request that they at least let me finish cleaning up this blog....

i had the thing disassembled for almost a month, so i'd think that it thoroughly drained anything from any volatile memory.

but, i dunno. i know i've taken the hub out, along with all of the wireless devices. i know i've taken the battery out. i know i'm down to one stick of ram instead of two. and i know it's been more stable than it's been in months...

...but i also know that certain measurements of surveillance seem to have reversed, so maybe they pulled back. or maybe they figured out a less invasive means of spying on me.

let's hope it stays up for a while, and i'll have to slowly bring the devices back in. but, none of this is changing my perception that i was being shut down remotely...and what i actually think is that they've adjusted their tactic, or given up.

it's kind of an overlooked point.

i live just outside of detroit, which i would think is being targeted. i've seen zero ads by tom steyer, zero ads by mike bloomberg, zero ads by bernie sanders and zero ads by anybody else.

i also use an ad blocker on the internet.

you'd be more likely to reach me by putting an ad in a bus shelter, or on a billboard, and proving that buying an ad there works.

so, they seem to have allowed just enough of some of the vote to trickle out to let biden back into second place in the second alignment, by a fraction of a percent, and then froze it in place. this is essentially allowing the sunday television coverage to run with the party's racist narrative.

we don't actually have ordered results. we don't have a delegate count. this is all nonsense.

and, it is foolish, as it is blunting the will of their own voters.

why do they do this every four years, if they just consistently ignore or distort what their own voters want? isn't that supposed to be the point?

we'll see how long this takes, but i wouldn't expect the results to pick up until after larry king is over, or whatever is on tv, nowadays. i don't even know.

i'm not a millennial, but i'm too young to watch tv.

ok.

i waited all night in new hampshire for the numbers to make sense, and they never did, leading me to be very skeptical about the whole thing.

but, buttigieg has, for the first time, overtaken biden on the final vote alignment in the published results, with roughly 50% reporting.

and, i'll remind you that there's supposedly 75,000 uncounted preferential ballots to sort through, which is more than the number of votes that have been counted, so far.

with south carolina, though, the field is badly split, and what that means is that nobody wins, but nobody really loses.

- biden needs to actually win, and he might
- steyer needs to get above 20% to even think of being competitive on super tuesday. but, i'm happy to let him hang around and split the black vote up...
- black voters in nevada are not quite as liberal as black voters in illinois or michigan, but they're nowhere near as conservative as black voters in the south. i wouldn't read much into how sanders did in nevada in terms of it being predictive in the south. he did well with northern blacks in 2016, too. he needs to focus on his 20-25%, and rely on the split in the field to limit the damage.
- buttigieg needs to try to play up the religious slant with rural democrats, mostly white ones, and hope it gets him some delegates at the district level. he's just looking to stay viable, though - he's just trying to get through it.
- neither warren nor klobuchar have a serious chance at delegates in south carolina, meaning they're both going to be a good ways behind the pack by the end of the process - 50, 60, 70 delegates out. it's far from insurmountable, but very challenging in a field this size.