j reacts to the ubiquity of junk economics in the mainstream press

"Trump's stated plans to cut taxes and ramp up infrastructure spending is expected to boost the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve is expected to boost U.S. interest rates, which could draw investors toward the U.S. greenback."

no.

rather, i'd expect that a congressional push for austerity and entitlement clawbacks is going to lead to a punishing recession, which will lead to a strong sell-off. republicans are generally terrible for the american economy, and usually create recessions. the combination of congressional austerity with a protectionist white house is likely going to be disastrous.

i agree with the rate hike, but i do not believe that rate hikes or cuts affect the value of the currency much.

the canadian dollar is traded on a market. rates are not meaningful because traders sell the currency quickly. it does not react to macroeconomic factors, either. it's value is determined by the perception of investors, not by causal economic laws. these predictions are consequently always worthless - when they are right, it is by sheer chance.

that said, i'd also expect that the sum effect of trump's policies is going to push oil lower (unless he manages to piss off opec, or something). and, because canada's dollar is perceived as a petro-currency, that remains the dominant psychological factor on the value that the canadian currency is traded at.

so, what we're going to be looking at with the loonie is finding a middle point between a worse-than-usual republican recession (which helps the loonie) and low oil prices (which doesn't). i'm not going to guess where it balances out, and don't think you should either. but, i'd bet more on stability than instability.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loonie-us-dollar-forecasts-1.3863851

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/11/20/trumps-turn-republican-presidents-rule-recessions/93976832/

"While we see substantial support in Congress for proposals to cut taxes and reform the tax code, our current impression is that market expectations of quick fiscal expansion may be running ahead of political and legislative realities," Goldman said.

yup.

tax cut? check.
infrastructure spending? nope.

the report also makes the "error" of assigning gdp growth to tax cuts. i say "error" because i do not believe that goldman sachs actually believes in reaganomics, so much as it is holding to the lie because it wants the tax cut.

expect a recession. and pretty quickly.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/19/us-recession-odds-relatively-low-but-curb-your-enthusiasm-on-trumponomics-goldman.html

don't be surprised if the recession turns into a depression, either.

didn't they actually buy a drone company for delivery?

my best guess is that they just came to the startling conclusion that the most cost-effective way to deliver the product was to convert warehouses into store fronts.

i'd kinda still like to see drone mail delivery. more likely is that they're going to slowly lose market share, online.

and i'll stick with the second hand book stores, myself.

www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/amazon-offline-1.3868891

liberals need to avoid taking the alt-right bait on a racist narrative. this can't be about white liberals standing up for brown people. that just plays into their identity politics narrative, and perpetuates further conflict, even if we win most of the battles. it has to be a teachable moment used to banish race from the discourse altogether.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/race-is-not-biological_us_56b8db83e4b04f9b57da89ed

news flash: voter suppression or not, it was the republicans that were most successful in using identity politics, this election.

the right-wing press is nailing trudeau for refraining from demonizing castro.

they don't represent popular opinion in the country. trudeau should stick by his comments, which were reflective of the broad understanding in this country that castro was not perfect but that he did far more good than he did harm.

that's the historical narrative that will stick. the tory media is, as usual, completely wrong.

trudeau did not win the election by caving to the media. and, he should not cave to the media, now.

a lot of the people in the tory press that are criticizing trudeau today for his comments on castro were no doubt supporting apartheid south africa while castro was fighting it. they were on the wrong side of history then, and they are on the wrong side of history, now.

these are the same people that declared mandela a terrorist and stuck to it.

their opinions are wrong. they have always been wrong. and, if their media parent companies had any concept of social responsibility, their microphones and pens and keyboards would have been taken away from them years ago.

you don't have to be an advocate of historical materialism to realize that you can't expect a primitive society to respect queer rights. my understanding is that the reality was less that castro was an opponent of queer rights and more that he chose not to prevent their persecution. the ultimate problem stemmed from centuries of colonial rule by the catholic church. it was something that he couldn't overturn quickly, and fighting against it too strenuously may have put the whole thing in jeopardy.

the same thing is true today in russia. putin does not care about gay people one way or another. but, he knows that standing up to the church, which is what is actually leading the persecution, would put his own position in jeopardy.

i'm not trying to whitewash putin or castro. you can call putin weak, and be right. and, you can question castro's judgement. but, let us attribute the problem, correctly - in both cases, the problem is religion. and, on the left, we know how careful we have to be about religion and striking the right balance in letting it die out slowly.

it's not that queer rights are not important. of course, they are. but, they are a second-generation concern.

there is consequently something deeply bourgeois and distressingly haughty in these upper class tories and liberals looking down on these developing societies and criticizing them for not overturning their colonial brainwashing fast enough.

queer rights are a deduction, and not a premise. a certain framework must come first.

and, in time, castro's society did become more free for queer people - once it had time to undo the effects of catholicism.

more projection. classic trump. he knows the election was rigged in his favour - that millions more votes for clinton disappeared. this is what he does to control his herd of idiots and deplorables (it was a stupid thing to say, but it was always true, and i'm going to stick with it). at some point, the sheep will react. but, they're sheep. it could be a while.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/trump-calls-it-sad-that-clinton-joining-recount-effort/article33058826/

j reacts to the idea that pipelines can be a compromise in fighting climate change

"Mr. Trudeau has appeared willing to take that risk because it could lead to a political triumph. If he can balance a pipeline with a climate deal with premiers at a meeting Dec. 8 – and it appears a deal with all provincial premiers except Saskatchewan’s Brad Wall is likely – then he can claim the broad political middle by asserting he delivered both a pipeline to tidewater and a deal on emissions."

this is stupidity. he will do neither. he will alienate both constituencies.

there is no "political middle". it's a fantasy created by conservatives to co-opt the left.

the liberals played this game in the 90s and lost. the lesson they should have learned is that they can't balance the left and right, and that they're only deluding themselves in pretending that they can.

the reason is that nobody actually wants this compromise. there's no victory in getting pipelines built, while you address climate change. that's not something i want, or something i'll celebrate. it's just feet-dragging and weak tea.

i know it's coming. i never pretended it wasn't. i knew he was going to approve pipelines, and i knew they would need to be fought in court and on the ground. but, i'm not looking forward to it, and nobody else is, either.

that's delusional. simply. plainly.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/were-about-to-see-just-how-ruthless-trudeau-can-be/article33065655/