hey.
if you exceed life expectancy, then you did beat the odds.
after that, you're just operating on bullshit luck.
so, if he makes it another year, he's exceptional.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
at the very least, in quebec, in 2019, if you're going to invite the ndp, you have to invite the greens, too.
if you're not going to invite the greens, you should also exclude the ndp.
that you would pick one and not the other is irrational, given the data.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
if you're not going to invite the greens, you should also exclude the ndp.
that you would pick one and not the other is irrational, given the data.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
bc has a unique spectrum, with no provincial conservative party. in bc, the right-wing is the liberals and the centre is the ndp (like in australia). they used to have a right-wing called "social credit", but it's been dead for years (and largely eaten by the liberals). the greens have recently jumped up on the left, and currently hold the balance of power in an ndp-led government.
so, the ndp numbers are higher in bc than anywhere else for that reason - in bc, the ndp is the centre. singh is being saved by horgan.
but, don't be surprised if you wake up in a few weeks time and see them with one or two seats - or less - east of the rockies.
and, i'm sorry that i told you this would happen, but you should be sorrier that you didn't listen. nothing was more obvious. nothing was more predictable...
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
so, the ndp numbers are higher in bc than anywhere else for that reason - in bc, the ndp is the centre. singh is being saved by horgan.
but, don't be surprised if you wake up in a few weeks time and see them with one or two seats - or less - east of the rockies.
and, i'm sorry that i told you this would happen, but you should be sorrier that you didn't listen. nothing was more obvious. nothing was more predictable...
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
ekos wasn't the best pollster in 2015, which i think had to do with his sampling methods.
but, look at these numbers:
according to these numbers, the greens are beating the ndp in like half the country.
and, the ndp are polling at scary low numbers in a lot of places.
the debate is about whether the greens or ndp will finish in third, but if trends continue in the direction they're going, we're going to be asking if the ndp finish in 4th or 5th.
they could get wiped.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
but, look at these numbers:
according to these numbers, the greens are beating the ndp in like half the country.
and, the ndp are polling at scary low numbers in a lot of places.
the debate is about whether the greens or ndp will finish in third, but if trends continue in the direction they're going, we're going to be asking if the ndp finish in 4th or 5th.
they could get wiped.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
see, this is part of the reason we can't get rid of elizabeth may - they keep giving her the opportunity to write essays like this.
of course, she's right.
given current polling realities, it's very hard to justify including the ndp and excluding the greens. this simply doesn't make sense.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-green-party-wont-be-silenced-by-tva/
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
of course, she's right.
given current polling realities, it's very hard to justify including the ndp and excluding the greens. this simply doesn't make sense.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-green-party-wont-be-silenced-by-tva/
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
if you're going to make me choose solely between harris and warren, that's a pretty easy choice. harris has repeatedly demonstrated herself to be an unserious candidate.
on certain fundamental points, they may be more similar than different. neither will commit to serious health care reform, for example.
but, that's not a fair fight, overall, and it's easy to see why warren is kicking her ass.
what's less clear is whether she can take advantage of any of this or not.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
on certain fundamental points, they may be more similar than different. neither will commit to serious health care reform, for example.
but, that's not a fair fight, overall, and it's easy to see why warren is kicking her ass.
what's less clear is whether she can take advantage of any of this or not.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
but, to be clear, this graph makes it pretty obvious where support has been shifting and why.
warren is essentially destroying harris, and it would appear to be with female identity voters. sanders is actually roughly flat.
that means that it's not obvious that warren benefits from this.
i would be more likely to look at the greens, or some other third-party, than default to warren or biden.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
warren is essentially destroying harris, and it would appear to be with female identity voters. sanders is actually roughly flat.
that means that it's not obvious that warren benefits from this.
i would be more likely to look at the greens, or some other third-party, than default to warren or biden.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
i haven't seen eye-to-eye with bernie recently, but i do wish him a full recovery - in retirement.
it's sad to say that this was predictable, at his age, and i'm not the only person that questioned how far he would make it.
and, it does uphold a point that i and others have been making - it's not ageist to refer to statistics and uphold facts about aging. stats are ruthless things, and facts are even more intolerant than stats.
even if he comes back, it's over.
it's time for the left to move on, and it's not to elizabeth warren. there's still time for somebody to step in. i mean, what happens to these tens of millions of dollars that bernie raised? but, i really think that the focus needs to be to get a strong third party up and running right now.
is biden next? i'd suspect he's in better physical health. that was the difference - bernie seemed mentally sharp but physically weak, whereas biden seemed physically fine but mentally questionable. it's inevitable - not if but when.
and, then what?
all those candidates in single digits are still terrible, whether the old men are running or not.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
it's sad to say that this was predictable, at his age, and i'm not the only person that questioned how far he would make it.
and, it does uphold a point that i and others have been making - it's not ageist to refer to statistics and uphold facts about aging. stats are ruthless things, and facts are even more intolerant than stats.
even if he comes back, it's over.
it's time for the left to move on, and it's not to elizabeth warren. there's still time for somebody to step in. i mean, what happens to these tens of millions of dollars that bernie raised? but, i really think that the focus needs to be to get a strong third party up and running right now.
is biden next? i'd suspect he's in better physical health. that was the difference - bernie seemed mentally sharp but physically weak, whereas biden seemed physically fine but mentally questionable. it's inevitable - not if but when.
and, then what?
all those candidates in single digits are still terrible, whether the old men are running or not.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
and, the bloc.
the bloc should be killing it right now, and that they aren't seems to be a mixture of a feeling of apprehension about a couple of policies with a desire to move forwards, rather than backwards.
i understand the thing about "money and the ethnic vote". but, they need to focus less on demonizing other groups and more on promoting their own. quebec identity shouldn't be a process of defining itself against others, but a process of determining itself on it's own merits.
there is a broad feeling that the culture is under attack and needs to be protected from foreign influences, and i don't even want to challenge the point because i agree that it's true, but the party has been focusing too much on this in recent years and not enough on upholding quebec for what it is. if it wants to get over the hump and get back to where it was, it need some more positive messaging.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
the bloc should be killing it right now, and that they aren't seems to be a mixture of a feeling of apprehension about a couple of policies with a desire to move forwards, rather than backwards.
i understand the thing about "money and the ethnic vote". but, they need to focus less on demonizing other groups and more on promoting their own. quebec identity shouldn't be a process of defining itself against others, but a process of determining itself on it's own merits.
there is a broad feeling that the culture is under attack and needs to be protected from foreign influences, and i don't even want to challenge the point because i agree that it's true, but the party has been focusing too much on this in recent years and not enough on upholding quebec for what it is. if it wants to get over the hump and get back to where it was, it need some more positive messaging.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this
as for the conservatives.
they've consistently struggled to get to 20% in quebec since meech lake, and the media thinks that they're all of a sudden competitive when a few polls show them at 25% - a phenomenon unique to quebec's fragmented political system.
even so, they only won one close riding in 2015. even with all of these three or four way splits on the left, they still can barely compete.
so, don't fool yourself - quebec is not going to vote for andy scheer, except by accident. when the numbers settle - and it's mostly a two-way race between the liberals and bloc, with the greens as dark horse - the conservatives will remain uncompetitive in most regions of the province.
andy has no strategy here.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
they've consistently struggled to get to 20% in quebec since meech lake, and the media thinks that they're all of a sudden competitive when a few polls show them at 25% - a phenomenon unique to quebec's fragmented political system.
even so, they only won one close riding in 2015. even with all of these three or four way splits on the left, they still can barely compete.
so, don't fool yourself - quebec is not going to vote for andy scheer, except by accident. when the numbers settle - and it's mostly a two-way race between the liberals and bloc, with the greens as dark horse - the conservatives will remain uncompetitive in most regions of the province.
andy has no strategy here.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
who do you think justin's hero is?
laurier, like his father?
hopefully not reagan, like obama, surely, although some evidence leans in that direction
nope.
trudeau's hero is rocky balboa, the mentally challenged but broadly good natured fictional character played by sylvestor stallone in the rocky film series. it's as obvious as can be: this is the guy trudeau looks most up to, and wants to be most like.
don't vote for this guy again, please.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
laurier, like his father?
hopefully not reagan, like obama, surely, although some evidence leans in that direction
nope.
trudeau's hero is rocky balboa, the mentally challenged but broadly good natured fictional character played by sylvestor stallone in the rocky film series. it's as obvious as can be: this is the guy trudeau looks most up to, and wants to be most like.
don't vote for this guy again, please.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
trudeau inherited the smart party, and is trying to turn it into the stupid party by appealing to the dumbest voters out there.
and, he's at least succeeding in doing that.
boxing. really. you going to beat putin at his own game? you think this ends with a standoff against dolph lundgren at the un?
why not send him out on the beach shirtless? wait. they did.
dolph actually finished his engineering degree, fwiw.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
and, he's at least succeeding in doing that.
boxing. really. you going to beat putin at his own game? you think this ends with a standoff against dolph lundgren at the un?
why not send him out on the beach shirtless? wait. they did.
dolph actually finished his engineering degree, fwiw.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this.
“My presence in Quebec says, hey, there’s a better way to work together.
We can work together and not discriminate based on the way we look,”
said Singh.
he just doesn't understand what the whole thing is about at all.
he thinks it's just a rule that discriminates against people for looking different, and he's absolutely, 100% dead wrong.
i don't like foucault. but, has mr. singh read any?
no analysis at all.
the liberals are supposed to do better than his.
he just doesn't understand what the whole thing is about at all.
he thinks it's just a rule that discriminates against people for looking different, and he's absolutely, 100% dead wrong.
i don't like foucault. but, has mr. singh read any?
no analysis at all.
the liberals are supposed to do better than his.
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