20/21-06-2016: thoughts on inri000, and other things (markets, keystone)

tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inri-cassette-demo-1
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1

a new way forward for the koala central command is coming

the koala central command would like to announce that it is partnering with the free market to bring our fugitive, deathtokoalas, to justice. we are frustrated that she remains at large, still. we believe that the "market forces" that the free market offers is the ideal set of tools that we require and have been lacking. our collaboration will begin once a trained economist from the free market arrives and teaches us how to summon the invisible hand to control our enemies through targeted incentives. all hail koalas!

so, what are the polls *actually* at in the us election right now?

we all know it's a two-party system, so that's how the pollsters work. but, this is what they're *actually* picking up.

1) clinton - 40%
2) neither - 30%
3) trump - 30%

trump is actually running in third right now, behind "they're both unelectable".

if you needle them a little further, and even the staunchest big tenter *must* with those numbers, you get:

1) democrats (clinton) - 40%
2) republicans (trump) - 30%
3) none of the above - 15%
4) libertarians (johnson) - 10%
5) greens (stein) - 5%

so, this election is very live and currently very much defined by voter dissatisfaction. obviously, the smart money right now is on clinton. but, the actual public mood right now is that people are looking for a way out of that inevitability.

the numbers are volatile. anything could happen. the libertarians will probably not catch the republicans - the religious right is too powerful, and they're more likely to stay home than swing to the libertarians. but, they might, if trump can't keep his leg out of his mouth. i think the greens have a better chance of splitting on the left, as sanders supporters get collectively less and less interested in clinton as she moves further and further to the right.

by the end of it, the spectrum could shift in such a way that pulls the republicans right off of it and allows the democrats to emerge victorious as the new moderate right; that would be the creation of a new "party system", which is something that happens in american politics.

but, the headlines are warped. they're telling you clinton is headed for an easy win, by ignoring the full spectrum. in the end, it might work out. don't count on it.

the truth is that they're both running in the 30s, and trump is running on the low end of that - very close to 30.

j reacts to polling for the greens and the possibility of positive feedback cycles

greens at 7? libertarians at 9? da fuck?

well, it's probably an underestimate, actually - "fuck the two party system" is actually running close to thirty percent right now - and arguably ahead of trump.

i've pointed out previously that i don't think the libertarians can hold that - presuming trump aligns with his party. on the other hand, the more that clinton aligns with her party, the more she alienates green supporters. that's a very different dynamic: trump gets stronger as he moderates for the general, whereas clinton gets weaker.

if jill stein can hold those numbers, they could very well double overnight once the word gets out. if that happens, she's going to hit a bit of a brick wall around 15%, in the short run. but, if she can get there, that support may be permanent.

like i say: tipping points. half of 50 is 25. that's too much. 15-20 isn't. then, we've got a three-way race and the debates over what people actually want can begin.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/06/21/rel7b.-.2016.general.pdf

^lots of ifs, there, of course. hypotheticals on hypotheticals.

just, don't be shocked. it's plausible.