it looks like i'm going to need to deal with this in the near future.

i'm going to need to schedule a new hearing date by teleconference, it would seem - that is, if the previous date is firmly canceled. i'm hoping that this is not yet the case.

if they are processing motions, then i can file them electronically, it would seem.

it's too late in the day to call, now. let's hope that somebody can answer these questions on monday morning.

https://www.ontariocourts.ca/scj/notice-to-profession-to/#D_Divisional_Court_Matters

so, they made a deal with god, that it would not harm the village in return for a tribute of a fixed number of plays, performed at decadal intervals. how very german.

however amusing this is, i hope that they don't prioritize this bargain with god, or the gods, as being of greater importance than the value of science.

but, it's a reminder that, even in germany, christianity has adopted a great deal of regional traditions. one wonders what pagan ritual this practice ultimately sources from.

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/news/world/bavarian-towns-17th-century-vow-has-spared-it-from-coronavirus-pastor-says-436244/

press: you're going to have to use the emergency measures act, eventually.
trudeau: we're not doing that.
press: you can't just let this crisis go on without using it.
trudeau: just watch me.

so, is the data in italy beginning to plateau, indicating a so-called flattening of the curve? it's a bit choppy, on first glance, but given the inevitability of deficits in reporting accuracy, it's plateau-y enough, it would appear.

i have two reasons for you to read that data skeptically.

the first is that there are reports of a large amount of uncounted deaths, particularly at nursing homes, during the peak of the crisis a few weeks ago. the delay in counting these deaths might have muted an actual peak. the second is that the actual situation on the ground may be a series of localized peaks, which may appear as a plateau if plotted on top of each other in a way that obscures the overlapping peaks. that might actually explain the choppiness of the data - it's a series of maxima, not just one.

it would be useful to see a couple of different test cases in order to help work through some of these ambiguities in how to interpret the data from italy. i believe that the same concerns exist for spanish data, as well.

i think that the data from north america is likely to continue to be presented in very regionalized contexts, mostly by states and provinces, but also by mayors of large or important jurisdictions. hopefully, the more regionalized presentation of the data will help clarify the second point - it should make it easier to identify whether we're seeing spikes or plateaus, which is a marker to determine if we're suppressing the virus or if it's burning out.

as to the first, it is possible that delays in counting the dead might be better separated from the curve, if it is more localized, as well. but, north american jurisdictions seem to be more aware now, eventually, of the virus' particularly deadly potential inside of these care facilities, and are finally moving to take serious steps to protect these people from this. so, there is also a better likelihood that we'll actually get correct statistics from these homes, when the peak or plateau actually arrives - we might succeed in eliminating this bias by being prepared for it.

i've been distracted by the bad media coverage, again.

there's some upheaval happening, obviously.

i want to try to focus again, now.

i think that health policies that are specifically designed to protect aging professors, many of whom will likely live into their 90s if they can get through this, are justified, actually. that's one of the things that mortifies me most about these stalinists; they're almost eager to wipe out the smart people, they just get in the way. no - we need to protect the brains, we might need them, later.

it may turn out to be more practical in some contexts to introduce more flexible rules around sabbaticals, temporarily.

but, the point is that getting the health response right means understanding the different demographic footprints of covid-19 and influenza, which means letting go of some of the assumptions we have about influenza-like illnesses.

this disease is really a disease of the elderly, and the public health response should be designed to reflect that.

regarding this lancet article, i will acknowledge that the findings are preliminary, and also maybe wonder if they're asking the right research question.

when i suggested that closing schools might be a good idea, what i was mostly concerned about was transmission to older teachers, and, in the post-secondary context, to aging professors. what these preliminary studies seem to be concerned about is the prevalence of the spread amongst the children, rather than the impact that such spread might have on faculty, which is the real concern with this actual virus due to it's different demographic footprint.

see, they based all their studies around influenza, apparently, which has a relatively high mortality rate in very young people, that levels off in early adulthood and kicks back in again with the elderly. especially virulent flu viruses can also target young, healthy people. so, you definitely want to limit the spread of influenza in children, because they're vulnerable to it. this coronavirus that is causing covid-19 appears to have a very low mortality rate in almost everybody under 60; it is really almost exclusively targeting the elderly, although i need to warn that this might drastically change as it sweeps through the midwest. so, if you're looking specifically for the signals associated with influenza in young people, and you conclude that they aren't well-reflected in covid-19 data, you can kind of trick yourself into missing the point, which is that you want to conduct your studies around covid-19 assumptions rather than influenza ones.

so, i'd like to see some more studies done on this, but my immediate reaction is that it is probably right to conclude that shutting down public elementary schools likely did little to prevent spread in the under-60 demographic, even if it hasn't paid enough attention to the more pressing question as to whether opening certain types of schools (like universities, and high schools) may substantively increase the likelihood of older faculty and staff getting infected.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2352-4642(20)30095-X

there were a few years in the middle of the 90s where i found myself with this absolutely pointless holiday in the middle of the spring (the most nefarious thing about easter is that you never know exactly when it is.) that i barely understood. was jesus a man or a god, and do you dumbasses believe in reincarnation or not...?

i mean, of all the dumb holidays. he died for my sins? really? what an arrogant fucking prick.

i developed a sort of tradition of blaring this through speakers around noon on good friday, because i was bored at home. the tradition is that you take the corpse of your god-man down around 13:00. so, i made sure that it was loud enough that any religious minded person in earshot could hear it, at that time.

i guess that, during the late 90s, i would often disappear on the thursday night to some basement or garage somewhere, to light blunts and play songs, and maybe i'd be back that weekend, and maybe i wouldn't. so, this pointless holiday that i barely understood all of a sudden became an excuse to get stoned for days at a time.

but, when the social media era clicked in, i moved the ritual online and started posting this on facebook every year.

i would encourage you to post this song somewhere today, and across the internet on all days where fictional religious characters of all faiths are said to have died, to the maximum annoyance of all religionists that continue to insist on the inherently sophomoric juvenility and childishness of faith.

today your god is dead,
and noone cares.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2352-4642(20)30095-X