i can smell & taste.

i'm not, otherwise, sore.

no gastric issues.

really, i'm just dehydrated....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/record-low-temperatures-windsor-1.5563289

we're used to swings in temperature at this time of the year in this part of the world, but this is a little much, even for here:

the dashes are average highs and lows.

that might be a record low for that date on the 11th if it happens.

but, let's hope that's the end of not just this season but the ass end of this cycle.

i just slept some more....

do i think i finally picked this thing up?

well, i get tired when i have migraines, so it's not clear which is the culprit. some other signs...

- i don't have a thermometer i can use for a fever, but i am feeling a little warm. i've checked the thermometer i bought last year, though, and guess what? it's actually unusually warm in here.
- i started coughing last night and it's lingering, but i was reacting to second hand smoke (since passed, apparently) and it feels like a smokers' cough.
- the headache is getting better, but it is also triggered by dry air and smoke.

there's a very weird cold snap going through here right now that should lift in a day or two.

in the meantime, i didn't get that shower yet and am looking forward to it.

i dunno. i know i feel dehydrated...

another way to look at montreal is like this: staying closed may not save many or even any lives, but, at this point, you almost want to question whether it is better to stay closed to respect the dead.

if they're going to peak in a week or two, is it worth reopening now?

there's maybe a place for business owners to make that choice. it's not so clear from a distance.

i stopped to eat some fruit, and i had to pause halfway through the broader meal, but i'm feeling a lot better.

the air has cleared out in here, thankfully.

so, i'm going to get some spaghetti in me, take a shower and hopefully get back to it before sunset...

there is of course a caveat to apocalyptic scenarios in any city - eventually, you run out of vulnerable people to kill.

these were my projections at the beginning of april, and these numbers are simply based on protective immunity:

what are my number of projected deaths in....

1) new york city: (5799, 17398, 28997)  [projection: low end]
2) gta:  (4133, 12399, 20665)   [projection: low end]
3) montreal: (2800, 8399, 13999) [projection: low end]
4) detroit (metro area): (2866, 8599, 14332) [projection: expect something more like the middle number, due to higher comorbidity]

new york city and the detroit metro area have both passed the lower numbers, but neither have hit the middle numbers. i think i may have underestimated the effects of diabetes in new york city.

montreal is at about half the lower number and starting to ramp up. and, this hasn't even started in the gta, yet.

the point i'm making is that there are upper bounds, here, and while they may look gruesome, you have to continually remember that this is really very much an old person and already-very-sick person thing - which isn't to trivialize it, so much as to reinforce the point that the vulnerable need to stay inside.

we've all known old people. they don't fucking listen. and, at some point, we just have to accept the reality - it doesn't matter what rules we pass, and it doesn't matter how much we all "sacrifice", if they're just going to waltz around like it's their day of reckoning, anyways.

it doesn't matter what else we do if they don't stay inside - and if they do stay inside, it doesn't matter what else we do, either. we're focusing on the wrong concern....

if montreal peaks mid-may, that means toronto is a little further behind than we thought, too - it might not peak until early june or even a little later.

so, this is my advice to montreal - reopen or don't reopen, it doesn't really matter.

what's more important is that the vulnerable remain isolated.

i would take this with a grain of salt, and the reason is that there really isn't any convincing evidence that the reproduction number is decreasing or is likely to decrease any time soon.

the argument is essentially "if you loosen restrictions, the reproduction number will go back over 1".

but, it seems to me that it's already over 1, that it's been over 1 for a long time and that it doesn't seem likely that much of anything besides literal martial law is going to take it under it. they're going to have to let it run it's course.

my position has been consistent from the start: if i thought these hare-brained schemes were likely to work, i'd be likely to support them. like everybody else, i want to minimize unnecessary death. but, i don't think they're going to work, so what's the point?

it's probably too late to even have this discussion, in montreal. you should be having this discussion in toronto, where you might still be able to salvage it if you overreact in the most extreme way imaginable.

i think this took longer than anybody expected, but montreal needs to brace for impact.

and, it's not the last city in line, either.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/loosening-restrictions-could-mean-huge-increase-in-montreal-covid-19-deaths-report-1.4932199

i have never been diagnosed with clinical depression, and i've never claimed i suffer from it, ever.

i do not self-medicate.

i'm not even depressed.

i'm just frustrated that i can't focus.

i don't write folk music or hip-hop or techno. i make very technical, complicated progressive rock.

that means that i need to be able to think clearly - to work out time signatures, to do math on the fly.

being stoned just doesn't work for me.

i'm sorry - i'm not that person, i never was and i never will be. i don't want to be.

i do not smoke drugs or drink alcohol when i'm creative. ever.

it makes me stupid and unproductive.

what i want right now, and will want for the near future, is total sobriety so i can work on my art.

i can't work when i'm stoned.

ok?

the legal pot in this province is terrible. it's not worth buying.

i have no intention on being inebriated for months, and i'm going to get fucking livid if i'm forced to get stoned against my will.

it's absolutely revolting and disgusting in every conceivable way.

i should not be forced to deal with this.

why do i have to say this every fucking time?

why don't you just get this worthless, piece of shit out of here?

again -

can you get this disgusting pig upstairs out of here, please? there's a respiratory virus going around, i don't want to be breathing in second-hand smoke.

it tends to be ok in here until i go for groceries, at which point the fucking idiots seem to think that observing me bum a cigarette at the grocery store means i must not care if they smoke in the house, which is wrong in every way.

as has been the case now for nearly five years, i do not smoke habitually. the fact that i might bum a smoke when i'm out does not mean it's ok to smoke in the house. and, while this is not hypocrisy, it wouldn't matter if it is - what matters is that i've signed a non-smoking lease, and i expect it to be upheld.

so, if you're going to put a fucking pig upstairs to do what, i don't know, can you get one that doesn't smoke, please?

thank you.

they should have sent the military into the geriatric facilities immediately, and let everybody else carry on.

and, don't blame it on science, either - the science never supported any of this.

blame it on twitter, and blame it on politicians that valued twitter over science.

"so, why did we do this, then? was it for nothing?"

yes. we were stupid...

we did something that didn't work, and we need to come to terms with it and cut our losses and move on.

yeah, here comes the migraine....

i'm going to have to go in the other room and sit over the sink and let the humidity come back up.

the feds may be frustrated, but they need to look in the mirror - it's their own policy that failed.

has montreal peaked? it's closer than everywhere else, but not yet, i don't think.

did closing businesses stop the spread of the virus? clearly not.

is the virus going to burn out? obviously not.

so, that means they will get to protective immunity first, and will consequently be able to reopen first, while everybody else is waiting for immunity to build.

the cop should be banned from the force and charged with assault, and the worker should receive a hefty payout from the city.

https://nationalpost.com/news/outside-police-agency-to-review-how-officers-handled-run-in-with-costumed-worker

Does someone, somewhere (in the federal government) understand why Quebec, that has more than half of the COVID-19 deaths in the country, is the first to reopen? 

you would in fact expect the hardest hit areas to be the first to reopen, yes. that's how this will work, generally.

well, the shut down didn't work in slowing the spread, so why would you hold to a failed policy, expecting it to magically start working, all of a sudden?

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/why-would-he-pick-a-fight-with-us-covid-19-raises-tensions-between-trudeau-government-and-quebec

if people want to gamble, they will gamble.

that is all.

"15% unemployment?. meh. pass the caviar."

so, they released the worst jobs report in decades and the stock market rallied. record unemployment? pop the champagne...

it's a casino.

i may have avoided the migraine by sleeping it off.

it doesn't usually work like that, though.

so, i feel like i'm on borrowed time this morning. but, let's try this anyways...

it's the dry air and the smoke....and, here it comes again....

ugh.

the pollution in here is triggering another migraine.

fuck.