the type of voter that the republicans lost was not working class stiffs, it was upper middle class evangelicals. in fact, they don't seem to have done particularly poorly with lower income voters that would be more affected by "cost of living" concerns - or at least not worse than normal. these are typically democratic voters in the first place. there could not have been a big swing in this demographic to the democrats because the democrats already dominated it. but if the election was about gas, rent and groceries, trump would have lost voters at the bottom of the income spectrum. the fact that he actually lost voters in the middle to the top suggests it was probably more about social issues, like abortion.
concluding that iran cost the republicans the election is consequently the wrong lesson and it won't help the republicans rebuild their base, which is suffering from the absence of a ballot issue. if they want to come back, they need to find a way to get evangelicals out to vote, or they need to focus on swinging a different demographic.
there is no lesson in these results for the liberals in canada, but the conservatives may want to take note of the importance of continuing to string their base along on issues like abortion, because the alternative is losing them and becoming uncompetitive.
it's an open question whether the republicans can rebuild the reagan coalition in the next two years. if they can't, they may have a hard time generating voters.