Tuesday, October 22, 2024

the premise that the government's ministers have the right to order people around without due process of law is blatantly absurd and has no place in a democratic society.

it's the kind of mindset you'd expect from a backwards dictatorship like iran.

the only way to react to uppity people that think they have some kind of authority to order you around is to ignore them and if the minister wants to continue to walk around with these delusions of grandeur then the labour board is going to be left with no choice but to ignore his "orders".

something that democratic commentators are fundamentally misunderstanding is that the perception of age across the parties is not reciprocal. democrats need young voters to win, but what we're learning is that the problems in democratic appeal are not restricted to having this old guy as the face of the party. republicans, on the other hand, are the party of old men, and they see themselves in an older candidate like trump. republicans like old white men; it's what they are, themselves.

biden's age was consequently a liability, admittedly, while trump's age is actually an asset.

but i said from the start that harris was the worst possible candidate. who was responsible for setting this up? ultimately, biden, by picking her, and that will just be recorded in history as one of his myriad mistakes.
these are 538 numbers regarding probabilities of trump winning. yes, the math works in harris' favour as well, but the existence of a likely bradley effect and a general polling error in favour of harris make the opposite exceedingly more likely and everybody realizes that.

50% - pennsylvania
50% - nevada
50% - michigan
50% - wisconsin
==============
53% - minnesota
53% - new hampshire
54% - virginia
54% - new mexico
54% - maine
=================
56% - colorado
56% - oregon

given the not just possibility or plausibility but actual likelihood of a roughly 5% error in the polling in harris's direction (and trump's favour), the election map actually probably looks like this going into the very end of the election:



there is a very real possibility of a 400+ ec vote massive trump blowout.