again - she's up by 6-8 in this one, as though nothing has happened in weeks.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/September-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline-Clinton.pdf

j reacts to the idea that clinton is a lock on 270 ev, but less certain to win

see, now we're very close to a point of agreement. i'd just question the idea that the margins cited are nearly as meaningful as suggested (especially between ohio and pennsylvania, which have often voted differently). that's the same question of demographics being predictive or not, which, remember, i largely reject.

and, i'd have to wonder aloud how anybody could agree that it is almost certain that she's going to win at least 270 electoral votes, and yet much less certain that she's going to win the election. because if that isn't a contradiction (it is), it's at least cognitive dissonance.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/

(independent random variables should be very familiar not just to statisticians, but to anybody with a remotely mathematical background - computer scientists, physicists, engineers. you may not have even ventured past them, if you're less theoretical and more practical.

you couldn't do this in canada - and if you could, it wouldn't really mean anything. but, given that there is ample data for states in the american election, and the unit of the state is paramount, i might suggest that the way to model elections is to assign each state as an independent random variable. this assumes that data in ohio and pennsylvania (and in any other two states) is entirely independent. and, i think this is correct.

this isn't exotic. it's textbook. it's just a different assumption. but, if anybody knows of anybody doing modelling like this, i'd like to see it.

https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter3/3_1_4_independent_random_var.php)

(i'm just trying to tersely explain what an independent random variable is for random onlookers.)

j reacts to the estate tax hike as bad politics (this election is about winning boomers)

this is good policy.

but, in a year when disproportionately wealthy aging boomers are going to determine the election, the reality is that it's terrible politics.

you want to do it. but, you want to bury it somewhere.

i just don't get it: the inability to adapt. broadly. what, is it supposed to attract young voters? because they don't want to inherit anything? i...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-proposes-65-tax-on-largest-estates-1474559914

again...

who picked clinton over sanders? boomers.
who picked trump over the field? boomers.
who are the issues directed at? boomers.
what is the age of the candidates? boomers.
who are going to vote in the largest numbers? boomers.

here's a (not so) bold prediction: whomever wins boomers will be the next president.

hopefully, this is a last hurrah. an end of an era.

but they created this election, and it is theirs to decide.

while the battles of that generation go through their final motions, the kids are going to remain off in the distance smoking a joint and laughing about how absurd the charade is.

nobody's going to swing them. not these candidates. accept it...

you have to win boomers, democrats.

ok. i'm confident in stating i'm over it, even if i feel a little rough in the morning for the next five or six days. but, when you're sick for four days, it really feels like one big long day that never starts. you wake up, you eat, you fall asleep. repeat.

i happen to have gotten a lot of ranting in, so i could upload four separate vlogs full of rants. but, if i were to remove the ranting, there wouldn't be anything left except talking about how i'm sick. see, i try to separate my vlogs by chunks of consciousness. normally, that works by partitioning over sleeps, meaning i'll connect together several days through the property of awakeness. in this case, i basically slept for four days, so it would be consistent in a broader sense to combine them all together through the property of asleepness, even if i happen to have woken up for a few hours in between to do things like eat and rant.

i just feel that the best way to do this is to combine it all together into a single sick vlog in order to capture that experience as a single, uninterrupted whole. which means a relatively lengthy vlog for the 18th-21st (inclusive) will come up on the 29th.

there will be nightly reacts videos published as they are appropriate.