Thursday, November 7, 2024

it's not entirely clear why the liberal media thinks trump is pro-netanyahu or even pro-israel other than that it is the liberal media.

trump is the isolationist. biden/harris were the global policeman.

i don't think trump is going to be really pushing to escalate at all and may succeed in restraining and better focusing netanyahu where biden failed.

the one upside of trump winning is that american foreign policy will hopefully take a return to sanity after the insane war mongering of the biden years, although biden left such a mess that it could take most of the next 4 years to fix it. the liberal media has really lost the plot and needs to reconnect with the facts in front of them.
to be clear: historically, candidates like trump tend to accidentally win because nobody really bothers to vote.

on face value, at least, trump is the opposite; he's winning by convincing those that don't vote to go vote.

that's hard to analyze, other than to rely on the last two elections, which is what i did, but i thought the black vote would actually overpower in detroit and that was my one miscalculation.

like, i even got the weakly democratic leaning states dead on - new mexico, minnesota, new hampshire, virginia. i missed new jersey.
was i wrong about michigan?

i was right about everything else.

the weird thing about michigan is that turnout went up again. i'm not aware of a large movement of people into michigan, recently; generally, the trend is leaving. that would suggest that trump dramatically succeeded in mobilizing non-voters.

i penciled michigan as leaning blue because while the data was a little sketchy i decided black turnout for harris would be decisive. what i didn't see coming was startlingly high turnout in rural michigan and i wonder how much voted against harris rather than for trump. rural michigan is as racist or more racist than anywhere in the country.

or maybe they stuffed the ballots. i dunno.

one day, a candidate will get 133.7% of the vote.

for now, whatever the truth, trump got that vote out almost impossibly well and it is the singular state i missed.
joe biden thinks he has immunity if he shoots trump, though.

trump isn't president again just yet.
i hope we're not subjected to too much barking from vice president fido.
joe biden won arizona, georgia, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin.

kamala harris lost every one of those states.

joe biden won the senate. kamala harris took down capable incumbents with her.

kamala harris was the first out in the primaries because democrats - not independents. democrats. - didn't like her.

harris vote total: 68 million votes
biden vote total: 81 million votes

without factoring in population growth, harris lost 13 million votes. that's a lot.

harris is a loser.