i was right about everything else.
the weird thing about michigan is that turnout went up again. i'm not aware of a large movement of people into michigan, recently; generally, the trend is leaving. that would suggest that trump dramatically succeeded in mobilizing non-voters.
i penciled michigan as leaning blue because while the data was a little sketchy i decided black turnout for harris would be decisive. what i didn't see coming was startlingly high turnout in rural michigan and i wonder how much voted against harris rather than for trump. rural michigan is as racist or more racist than anywhere in the country.
or maybe they stuffed the ballots. i dunno.
one day, a candidate will get 133.7% of the vote.
for now, whatever the truth, trump got that vote out almost impossibly well and it is the singular state i missed.