if you put money down on andrew yang to win the presidency, i have a bandcamp site to send you to.
i think the error here is thinking this is a serious projection, rather than a way for fools to part with their money.
Friday, February 14, 2020
this is explored in greater detail in the dawkins film 'nice guys finish first'.
there's lots of examples in this primary, but klobuchar v warren is particularly clear. if they continue to compete, they're going to end up both getting <15% across the board. but, if they cooperate by picking a ticket and sticking with it, they could give bernie a run for his money.
buttigieg and biden is another example, but it's not as clear, yet.
there's lots of examples in this primary, but klobuchar v warren is particularly clear. if they continue to compete, they're going to end up both getting <15% across the board. but, if they cooperate by picking a ticket and sticking with it, they could give bernie a run for his money.
buttigieg and biden is another example, but it's not as clear, yet.
at
20:45
i suspect i'll be talking a lot about this in the upcoming weeks.
if you don't know what it is....
...and i like the advertising example, in context.
if you don't know what it is....
...and i like the advertising example, in context.
at
20:18
i'm forced to live inside the system that is erected around me.
but, you would find the depth of my rejection of capitalism to be shocking, should i ever choose to get involved with politics in a serious manner. the groups i would support would be extremely radical, and i would not stand with groups in the centre, at all.
if you were to see me in action, you might begin to understand why i reject bourgeois politics so thoroughly.
if you were to see me in action, you might begin to understand why i reject bourgeois politics so thoroughly.
but, my art is more important than my politics, and is where my energy will be focused for the near future.
at
14:50
and, why don't i go to shows in windsor?
because there aren't any. or, there aren't any worth going to, anyways. it would be far easier if there were, trust me. but, there aren't.
it's a small city. i'm a big city person...i need a large metropolitan area to be able to generate the kind of art i'm interested in.
at
14:44
i am a canadian citizen and live in windsor. i just go to detroit to party, because it's the closest major city. if there was a closer city on this side of the border, i would go there, instead.
i have no interest in detroit politics, and would even consider engaging myself within them to be an example of foreign interference. i may make comments or observations about things that are meaningful to me, but it's intentionally done from a great distance.
i would involve myself with issues on this side of the border, strictly, if i were to decide to make that choice. but, i am not likely to find myself interested in bourgeois politics any time soon. i would be more likely to involve myself with ngos and anarchist groups.
at
14:42
we have a special place in our law for indigenous groups that take direct action against groups that would infringe upon their constitutionally defined rights, it is true.
but, that place doesn't extend to people acting in solidarity with other groups, even if popular opinion is on their side.
at
14:06
actually, the issue here in ontario is pretty cut and dry, although scheer's suggestion (and trudeau could order the rcmp in if he wanted) is pretty hamfisted, in terms of public relations, and intended more for a political audience.
but, that's my point - everybody loves the phrase "rule of law" nowadays, even if few people seem to know what it means, but that's not really the point on either side.
the government doesn't want to create any martyrs, and should not be overly aggressive in it's actions. if they were blocking somebody from entering their own territory to lay a pipeline here, the courts would interpret the situation in a different manner than they do with run of the mill vandalism, even if that's technically what they're doing. but, this isn't what's happening. you can stand with them and agree with them, and i do to an extent, but this is going to end with mass arrests and convictions for garden variety offences like mischief and trespassing. what the police are really waiting for is for the topic to exit the news cycle - it's an entirely political response, through and through.
likewise, scheer surely knows that calling for tanks in the streets in canada is just an authoritarian right pipe dream to rev up his racist political base, although it demonstrates why so much of the country refused to even consider his candidacy. it's just crazy talk from somebody that will never hold any power.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6551391/wetsuweten-protests-trudeau-scheer/
but, that's my point - everybody loves the phrase "rule of law" nowadays, even if few people seem to know what it means, but that's not really the point on either side.
the government doesn't want to create any martyrs, and should not be overly aggressive in it's actions. if they were blocking somebody from entering their own territory to lay a pipeline here, the courts would interpret the situation in a different manner than they do with run of the mill vandalism, even if that's technically what they're doing. but, this isn't what's happening. you can stand with them and agree with them, and i do to an extent, but this is going to end with mass arrests and convictions for garden variety offences like mischief and trespassing. what the police are really waiting for is for the topic to exit the news cycle - it's an entirely political response, through and through.
likewise, scheer surely knows that calling for tanks in the streets in canada is just an authoritarian right pipe dream to rev up his racist political base, although it demonstrates why so much of the country refused to even consider his candidacy. it's just crazy talk from somebody that will never hold any power.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6551391/wetsuweten-protests-trudeau-scheer/
at
14:02
i need to repeat the point.
there is no polling support for anybody else besides sanders and maybe biden clearing 15%. not warren, not steyer. and, the polling support for biden is rather weak (i'll get to that).
my intuition is that buttigieg remains the most likely second place finisher, but we're running out of time to build polling support, and if the data doesn't come in soon, that will need to be abandoned. i won't run on gut feelings in any scenario besides the complete absence of data, which is what we're faced with. my gut is not a convincing oracle, nor is yours. this telephone poll has a very small sample size, though, and isn't enough to go all in on - we're still forced to rely on guessing.
if sanders is the only person that gets over 15%, he gets 100% of the delegates.
so, he could in theory get 22% of the vote and 100% of the delegates if the second place finisher gets 14%, and the field is bunched up behind him. and, that looks like what's going to happen, if buttigieg can't clear that hurdle.
there is no polling support for anybody else besides sanders and maybe biden clearing 15%. not warren, not steyer. and, the polling support for biden is rather weak (i'll get to that).
my intuition is that buttigieg remains the most likely second place finisher, but we're running out of time to build polling support, and if the data doesn't come in soon, that will need to be abandoned. i won't run on gut feelings in any scenario besides the complete absence of data, which is what we're faced with. my gut is not a convincing oracle, nor is yours. this telephone poll has a very small sample size, though, and isn't enough to go all in on - we're still forced to rely on guessing.
but, i think it's more likely that they both fail than that biden succeeds at buttigieg's expense. i mean, you've got three options:
1) buttigieg takes votes from biden and ends up viable while biden doesn't. i still consider this likely, in nevada, in the end.
2) biden recovers support from buttigieg and ends up viable while buttigieg doesn't. i can't imagine that happening, anywhere, anymore, not after listening to biden speak, recently. he's a senile idiot. you'd have to be retarded to vote for him. i'd vote against him, explicitly, if i could. he should be in a retirement home, not running for president..."too old" is maybe not a fixed number, but biden really is too old.
3) they split their own vote and both get under 15%. this is currently the second option and is increasingly looking more likely.
you could say something similar about klobuchar and warren, except that all evidence at this point suggests they're going to split and both end with nothing. they're in a classic prisoner's dilemma, and failing badly.
how likely is it that biden will be viable? polling at 18% with a 5% moe means you're between (13,23), 99% of the time. as he has tended to underperform his polling just about everywhere, it seems likely that he'll end up on the bottom end of this, that is below 18 rather than above it, so it's not strong evidence that he'll end up viable. and, these are higher numbers than i expected to see.
so, if we don't get any polling evidence that buttigieg or at least klobuchar have a shot at viability, if the polls continue to suggest that it's just biden & sanders, you should prepare yourself for the strong likelihood that sanders takes the pot, here.
1) buttigieg takes votes from biden and ends up viable while biden doesn't. i still consider this likely, in nevada, in the end.
2) biden recovers support from buttigieg and ends up viable while buttigieg doesn't. i can't imagine that happening, anywhere, anymore, not after listening to biden speak, recently. he's a senile idiot. you'd have to be retarded to vote for him. i'd vote against him, explicitly, if i could. he should be in a retirement home, not running for president..."too old" is maybe not a fixed number, but biden really is too old.
3) they split their own vote and both get under 15%. this is currently the second option and is increasingly looking more likely.
you could say something similar about klobuchar and warren, except that all evidence at this point suggests they're going to split and both end with nothing. they're in a classic prisoner's dilemma, and failing badly.
how likely is it that biden will be viable? polling at 18% with a 5% moe means you're between (13,23), 99% of the time. as he has tended to underperform his polling just about everywhere, it seems likely that he'll end up on the bottom end of this, that is below 18 rather than above it, so it's not strong evidence that he'll end up viable. and, these are higher numbers than i expected to see.
so, if we don't get any polling evidence that buttigieg or at least klobuchar have a shot at viability, if the polls continue to suggest that it's just biden & sanders, you should prepare yourself for the strong likelihood that sanders takes the pot, here.
at
13:35
these numbers are roughly in line with what i suggested, with the open questions being how much support will flow to buttigieg from biden and how much will flow from warren to klobuchar. i am skeptical that biden will run that high in the end (he's demonstrated himself to be a doddering idiot, and if being "diverse" means you're more likely to vote for a moron then that reflects poorly on diversity, doesn't it? i'm not buying into that, that's racist.), but we'll see what happens.
note that if these numbers are roughly correct and nobody can get to 15% then sanders actually gets all of the delegates, in the end.
note that if these numbers are roughly correct and nobody can get to 15% then sanders actually gets all of the delegates, in the end.
at
13:13
inri021 updated and tested
this is tested and working on the chromebook and on firefox on the windows 7 box.
what's in there, now?
- the 17 songs on the record
- cover.jpg & a jpg of the backsheet for cd-r printing (the insert for the spine)
- a playlist.m3u file stored as raw text
- a 126 page doc file of liner notes over the fall of 2013
- a 126 page pdf file (same)
- an instructions file
- inri021.html.7z.txt is a 175 mb document that must be renamed and unzipped and contains (1) an html version of the liner note package, including an html5 player that can load the purchased audio in the browser and (2) deleted masters of the record from 1999 and 2013, in standalone 192 kbps mp3 and embedded into the html file.
the full download, in flac, is 570 mb.
there will be further updates to the liner notes as i run through the alter-reality, and as i run through the remastering period that took place over 2015-2016. but, this is likely the last major revision to my second record, which is nearing a point of final completion.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inriched
it's time to stop to eat and shower.
what's in there, now?
- the 17 songs on the record
- cover.jpg & a jpg of the backsheet for cd-r printing (the insert for the spine)
- a playlist.m3u file stored as raw text
- a 126 page doc file of liner notes over the fall of 2013
- a 126 page pdf file (same)
- an instructions file
- inri021.html.7z.txt is a 175 mb document that must be renamed and unzipped and contains (1) an html version of the liner note package, including an html5 player that can load the purchased audio in the browser and (2) deleted masters of the record from 1999 and 2013, in standalone 192 kbps mp3 and embedded into the html file.
the full download, in flac, is 570 mb.
there will be further updates to the liner notes as i run through the alter-reality, and as i run through the remastering period that took place over 2015-2016. but, this is likely the last major revision to my second record, which is nearing a point of final completion.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inriched
it's time to stop to eat and shower.
at
05:36
is sanders the front-runner?
right now, he is, yes. maybe he shouldn't be, and maybe he won't be next month, and maybe the fact that he is right now is a reflection of the field being unsettled, but he's the only guy you can place a bet on to get over 15% in any particular state.
it's not often that "getting over 15%" means you're in first place, but that's the reality that exists, right now.
i keep pointing out that it seems like this is intentional, and the longer these goofs keeping running into each other for, the more likely that will seem.
it's not often that "getting over 15%" means you're in first place, but that's the reality that exists, right now.
i keep pointing out that it seems like this is intentional, and the longer these goofs keeping running into each other for, the more likely that will seem.
at
00:14
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