i pulled that 20% number out myself, and it does seem to be representative of a kind of inflection point, where community spread perhaps plateaus for a while and then starts to slow down - but understand that that number is increasing while the infections are slowing down, too. something the media always misses in these discussions is that these numbers coming out of studies are lagged. so, that 7% in stockholm was measured in april, leaving the swedish authorities to extrapolate then current infection rates based on independently measured growth curves. that's how they got 20% out of 7%...
but, i'm posting to suggest that you're more likely to find reasons that this number grows higher in some populations due to their living conditions rather than seek it out in genetic factors. one of the examples cited is prisons, where it seems obvious that cramped living conditions have accelerated immunity. i know that we've recently measured high immunity rates in new york city, as well, where the population density makes living conditions not that much different from those in prisons, in many cases.
that doesn't mean that people living in more normal living conditions won't get to the same rates of immunity we're seeing in prisons, it just means that they haven't gotten there yet, because the rate of spread is that much slower - and slowing, due to that 20% threshold being sufficient to minimize spread under normal social conditions.
so, check back in a few months, and those 20%s will be 30%s and 40%s. but, the places that happens will likely not see explosive new outbreaks, but rather a manageable stream of steady cases.
vancouver would appear to not be there yet, but i wonder if toronto is. see, this is why my faith in the numbers, being as low as it is, is frustrating. if we assume that cases are undercounted by a factor of 10, which i think is a low estimate in the specific context of ontario, then we're only at 3%, and vulnerable. but, i suspect that the factor in ontario is closer to 100 than to 10, which has us hovering in that sweet region.
we're going to find out which is true, in ontario; it's not currently clear.
but, let's not pull out the genetics when the issue is obviously environmental. that kind of pseudo-science doesn't help at all - and could lead to creepy deductions.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584
Friday, July 17, 2020
ok, i know these faces and the truth is that the researchers have got this all wrong.
0 is when a cat has yet to consider the premise that it may eat you. note the empty, blank stare.
1 is when a cat is thinking through the idea that it could potentially eat you. notice the more ponderous posture.
2 is when a cat has decided that it will, in fact, eat you, as soon as it gets the chance. notice the hunting eyes and ready jaw.
and, while a cat in stage 2 may spend years biding it's time, and developing schemes, it won't ever change it's mind. and, quite a few get the chance, eventually, too.
and, that's the thing about cats - they really do fully intend to eat you, eventually.
0 is when a cat has yet to consider the premise that it may eat you. note the empty, blank stare.
1 is when a cat is thinking through the idea that it could potentially eat you. notice the more ponderous posture.
2 is when a cat has decided that it will, in fact, eat you, as soon as it gets the chance. notice the hunting eyes and ready jaw.
and, while a cat in stage 2 may spend years biding it's time, and developing schemes, it won't ever change it's mind. and, quite a few get the chance, eventually, too.
and, that's the thing about cats - they really do fully intend to eat you, eventually.
so, my argument the whole time has been that extra precautions need to be taken to protect those that are vulnerable, even as restrictions maintain lax in the general society. what that means is that the son, here, had a duty of care to his father, to ensure he did not introduce the virus into the house - and his parents had the obligation to ensure he understood it and acted through with it.
it actually sounds to me like the teenager was told that he would be safe if he wore a mask at that party, which is false. there is actually no sound reason to think that the individual would have avoided spread at that party with a mask on, unless he was using a medical grade mask, which he no doubt was not. the correct messaging to the kid should have been that the consequences of his overweight 42 year-old father's preventable medical conditions means he is strictly not allowed to leave the house - or to re-enter it if he disobeys.
and, does his father not bear some responsibility for his health conditions? this is not a 77 year old frail grandmother, who is weak due to age; this is a 42 year-old grown ass man that is overweight and diabetic. his condition is of his own making, and it is not at all fair that he impose a life of isolation on his family in order to protect him from his own self-destructive habits. while the family must make the choice to act to protect him, it is an infringement on their rights that they must, and some effort should be made to call him out on it.
so, while this is indeed the feared vector of transmission, from healthy and young people to those with underlying conditions, it is the household's own responsibility to ensure it's own safety and it's own health on an everyday basis, and the household that failed in this case. the father allowed himself to become fat and weak at a young age, and is dying from a virus that he should have easily beat. that said, to protect the irresponsible father, the teenager must have been ordered to stay in and kicked out if he refused to listen; instead, he appears to have been told to go out and have fun, just wear a mask.
don't blame the government for your own irresponsible behaviour. we will never evolve to a system of anarchism like that.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7188224/florida-dad-coronavirus-teen/
it actually sounds to me like the teenager was told that he would be safe if he wore a mask at that party, which is false. there is actually no sound reason to think that the individual would have avoided spread at that party with a mask on, unless he was using a medical grade mask, which he no doubt was not. the correct messaging to the kid should have been that the consequences of his overweight 42 year-old father's preventable medical conditions means he is strictly not allowed to leave the house - or to re-enter it if he disobeys.
and, does his father not bear some responsibility for his health conditions? this is not a 77 year old frail grandmother, who is weak due to age; this is a 42 year-old grown ass man that is overweight and diabetic. his condition is of his own making, and it is not at all fair that he impose a life of isolation on his family in order to protect him from his own self-destructive habits. while the family must make the choice to act to protect him, it is an infringement on their rights that they must, and some effort should be made to call him out on it.
so, while this is indeed the feared vector of transmission, from healthy and young people to those with underlying conditions, it is the household's own responsibility to ensure it's own safety and it's own health on an everyday basis, and the household that failed in this case. the father allowed himself to become fat and weak at a young age, and is dying from a virus that he should have easily beat. that said, to protect the irresponsible father, the teenager must have been ordered to stay in and kicked out if he refused to listen; instead, he appears to have been told to go out and have fun, just wear a mask.
don't blame the government for your own irresponsible behaviour. we will never evolve to a system of anarchism like that.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7188224/florida-dad-coronavirus-teen/
what do i think about the polls that have biden way ahead just right now?
this is actually surprising to me, but biden seems to be doing unusually well amongst this specific midwestern demographic, mostly white, that has been iffy about the democratic party for many years, now. key traditionally democratic demographics that were shaky on obama, and liked clinton less, seem to be far more comfortable with biden.
i don't exactly get it, and i doubt it has much depth, but it seems to be measurable, and has been since the primaries. but, all i think it really is is this: biden has managed to co-opt some kind of popularity out of the anti-trump cultural moment. i think certain types of popular media got to them...
the thing is that this is flaky because it's not built on anything. something we saw happen in the democratic primaries was biden lose huge amounts of interest to any other candidate who managed to show up over and over again, and the reason for this is clear enough - he came off as doddering and past his prime, when compared to....anybody. even bernie. sort of.
they had to clear the field. remember?
so, biden is probably his own biggest opponent. if he can take advantage of the virus and use it to remain away from public scrutiny, he may spurn my earlier predictions and ride public indignation as the figurehead of a movement to remove trump. if it doesn't ask too many questions, that is. but, the more that people see of joe biden, the less they like him, and a good shot of joe in action at the debate could very well sober a few "moderates" and "progressives" alike up as to what they're actually voting for.
stated simply, it's too early.
but, i'd rather be up by 10 than down by 10.
this is actually surprising to me, but biden seems to be doing unusually well amongst this specific midwestern demographic, mostly white, that has been iffy about the democratic party for many years, now. key traditionally democratic demographics that were shaky on obama, and liked clinton less, seem to be far more comfortable with biden.
i don't exactly get it, and i doubt it has much depth, but it seems to be measurable, and has been since the primaries. but, all i think it really is is this: biden has managed to co-opt some kind of popularity out of the anti-trump cultural moment. i think certain types of popular media got to them...
the thing is that this is flaky because it's not built on anything. something we saw happen in the democratic primaries was biden lose huge amounts of interest to any other candidate who managed to show up over and over again, and the reason for this is clear enough - he came off as doddering and past his prime, when compared to....anybody. even bernie. sort of.
they had to clear the field. remember?
so, biden is probably his own biggest opponent. if he can take advantage of the virus and use it to remain away from public scrutiny, he may spurn my earlier predictions and ride public indignation as the figurehead of a movement to remove trump. if it doesn't ask too many questions, that is. but, the more that people see of joe biden, the less they like him, and a good shot of joe in action at the debate could very well sober a few "moderates" and "progressives" alike up as to what they're actually voting for.
stated simply, it's too early.
but, i'd rather be up by 10 than down by 10.
if they do these tests and they come back with low immunity levels, one wonders if it is a testament to the high level of isolation that people in these communities face.
my own hunch is twofold: (1) that addicts are sick all of the time anyways and may have had other reasons to avoid the er and (2) that the spike in opioid deaths over the last months might be evidence of some kind of interaction of the virus with the tolerance levels of opioid addicts.
vancouver is indeed a very wealthy, educated city, but it does have this impoverished underbelly as well. my understanding when i was there is that the city is almost designed to prevent that educated part of the city from interacting with the impoverished underbelly - which may work out to the latter's benefit in a scenario where a pathogen is introduced into the region largely via outside travel, at least to start. education breeds it's own sort of herd immunity, in that way, because let's be real - this thing is stopped pretty easily with basic hygiene.
so, yeah, there's lots of poor people in vancouver, too, but the character of the city is very well-to-do, and that is an increasing phenomenon. i'm interested in the results, but i stand by my statement.
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