what do i think about the polls that have biden way ahead just right now?

this is actually surprising to me, but biden seems to be doing unusually well amongst this specific midwestern demographic, mostly white, that has been iffy about the democratic party for many years, now. key traditionally democratic demographics that were shaky on obama, and liked clinton less, seem to be far more comfortable with biden.

i don't exactly get it, and i doubt it has much depth, but it seems to be measurable, and has been since the primaries. but, all i think it really is is this: biden has managed to co-opt some kind of popularity out of the anti-trump cultural moment. i think certain types of popular media got to them...

the thing is that this is flaky because it's not built on anything. something we saw happen in the democratic primaries was biden lose huge amounts of interest to any other candidate who managed to show up over and over again, and the reason for this is clear enough - he came off as doddering and past his prime, when compared to....anybody. even bernie. sort of.

they had to clear the field. remember?

so, biden is probably his own biggest opponent. if he can take advantage of the virus and use it to remain away from public scrutiny, he may spurn my earlier predictions and ride public indignation as the figurehead of a movement to remove trump. if it doesn't ask too many questions, that is. but, the more that people see of joe biden, the less they like him, and a good shot of joe in action at the debate could very well sober a few "moderates" and "progressives" alike up as to what they're actually voting for.

stated simply, it's too early.

but, i'd rather be up by 10 than down by 10.