21-04-2016: floundering the day away while deciding to not go to defeater

defeater set from 2012:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOjshU_Gk2A

i am wearing the same outfit as in the thumbnail (hair was a little lighter, then).

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tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1

j reacts to pre-polling for april 26th and what it says about the future

so, i suggested that either kasich would win every state on the 26th or trump would sweep the delegates. i don't think there's a state on tuesday that cruz can finish second in, but it doesn't look like anybody is taking a serious run for kasich, either.

the results on tuesday are going to be similar to the results from new york. it wasn't because cruz insulted new yorkers. it's because his policies are considered to be insane by northeasterners, and kasich is...in truth, it's probably just not enough time. if cruz had dropped out, kasich might have been able to take a run. even in a two person race, cruz never had a serious chance of getting to 30%, let alone winning.

the projections throw around the number of 100 delegates for trump on tuesday. i think it's going to be closer to 150. the hope was that kasich could keep trump under 50%, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

as for bernie? harsh reality at this point is: don't expect him to win any states at all on the 26th. i would expect him to do better than the polling in maryland due to bias (and that should hold, there, because the rules aren't as strict as new york - and, if you look it up, you'll see the predictions have consistently overestimated the effects of race), but it's not going to be enough. best case scenario is splits everywhere.

you'll note that my path called for near splits on the 26th. i suggested he should be aiming to pick up 50 delegates, mostly in pennsylvania, in order to close the distance to about 100. but, that was built on a win in new york taking him from 200 to 150, rather than a loss taking him from 200 to 250.

it's not a disaster, mathematically - there's enough delegates up on the 26th that he could, in theory, make up 150 and get back on track. but, the polling isn't projecting this.

realistically, he should be hoping to walk out of the 26th with the difference less than 300. and, he probably won't be able to keep it to that.

moving forward, i expect her to win indiana & west virginia by substantial margins - indiana will look like ohio, and west virginia will look like tennessee. the next state he'll have a real chance in will be oregon, but the difference will be nearly 400 delegates by the time he gets there.

i don't like it, either. sorry.

yeah. the media is out to lunch. the republican nomination is over. it's not even close.

trump currently has 847.

conn: 25 (take most)
del: 16 (take all)
mary: 38 (take all)
penn: 71 (take all)
ri: 10  (prop)

that's 160 on tuesday. let's round down to 153, so we can say he has around 1000 after tuesday.  that would mean he'd need around 250.

california: 172 (take all)
new jersey: 51 (take all)

that's 220. and, despite what media suggests, california is not in play.

oregon: 28 (prop)
wash: 44 (prop)
nm: 24 (prop)

so, that's 96 proportional. surely, he can average 30% in those states. so, there's your win.

not used:

indiana: 57 (take-all - this is unclear)
wv: 34 (probably trump, but weird rules)
nebraska: 36 (cruz)
montana: 24 (cruz)
south dakota: 29 (cruz)

if he wins indiana and gets 15-20 from wv, he's got more than 1300 delegates. and, that's a realistic target, too.

so, that's done.

j reacts to questions about whether bernie is angling for a run

see, i think he would have stopped already if he wasn't planning on it. but, i also think he's waiting to make the choice. if june comes around, and she's twenty points ahead nationally? well, no. if june comes around and he's beating her by ten points? probably, yeah. and, we know that growth is not infinite, but the direction of the curve suggests a run.

i do think he'll do everything he possibly can to win the nomination, though - and i he can, he'll take it. he'd legitimately rather run as a democrat. it makes everything easier.

but, i just have to think he knows his odds, and i couldn't imagine what else he's planning around. it depends on everything, of course. but the thinking has to be that he gets to the convention pretty close in delegates, and with all the momentum, and then marches the left out of the party once and for all.

i don't even think you need to pull out the indictment. what if he's beating her by 10% in national polls? consistently? right now, it's still ambiguous whether one candidate is polling stronger than the other. by june, it may not be.

j reacts to the cluelessness of voting for hillary explicitly to stop trump

but, i just want to remind you: over the next few months, you're going to hear all kinds of horrible things about donald trump. and, most of them will be true, on at least some level. but, what you're not going to hear - and are going to have to constantly remind yourself - is that almost all of it applies equally well to clinton.

so, for example, consider the border fence. terrible policy, sure. but, clinton's policy is, in fact, essentially identical. she's a lot less crude about it, but she favours continuing obama's mass deportation policies. one candidate is being sold to white xenophobes that blame minorities for class inequality, whereas the other is being sold to minority voters that blame white people for class inequality (see the trick, there?). but, the policies are not actually meaningfully different. if you're not fully expecting clinton to deport even more people than obama, you're not paying attention.

or, you could look at iran. hillary is, in fact, itching to bomb iran. she's entirely in line with john mccain and dick cheney. absolute neo-con. there is a difference in appearance: she knows a little about the situation, whereas trump is just trying to sound tough. there's no reason to expect any real substantive policy difference.

and you can go down this list for a while. you won't pull out much of a difference. the few things where there is a difference (trade, war) maybe ought to lean you towards trump - if you're an actual leftist, that is, and don't just like wearing the shirt and the hipster status attached to it.

so, i mean, if you don't like trump that's fine. i don't like him either. i couldn't imagine voting for him. just make sure you know where hillary stands before you vote for her, against trump - because you might be disappointed when you get exactly what you voted against.

but, maybe you still think obama is a peace candidate, too? you should have never thought that. he couldn't have been more clear.

so, you know that i frequent message boards. and i know that it's 90% people doing their jobs. but, you have to give trump's pr team some credit, even if you don't like his policies.

these are real-life talking point by paid trump hacks, who (like most of the country) are simply not taking ted cruz seriously anymore:

1) Ted Cruz has a pay as you go flip phone.
2) Ted Cruz wears Donald Trump Pajamas.
3) Ted Cruz keeps his khakis on during sex.
4) When at a steakhouse, Ted Cruz orders salmon.
5) Ted Cruz has every episode of Murder She Wrote on his DVR.
6) Ted Cruz’s default search engine is Bing.
7) Ted Cruz orders off of the kids’ menu.
8) Ted Cruz kisses his dad on the mouth.
9) Ted Cruz is no longer allowed to cut his own bangs.

shit hillary said vol 37

"I am very grateful that I had a grounding in faith that gave me the courage and the strength to do what I thought was right, regardless of what the world thought."