ford's path to victory was always reliant on his ability to swing ethnic conservatives on social issues, without losing too much support in the more traditional tory base, which is fiscally conservative, but rather socially liberal. this is a different country; we don't have a prominent christian right, here. i mean, it exists. but it's perpetually marginalized. it's the biggest difference between the two countries, and you can see it evidenced in policy, from gay marriage to abortion rights.

it's a contradiction that the conservatives need to resolve to form a government: their future is ethnic voters that want social conservatism and big government (not dissimilar to rural whites in the united states), but their past is fiscal conservatives that want responsible spending and libertarian social policy. that's a tightrope to walk. and it required a smart leader to navigate it.

ford has managed to alienate everybody. he fired the kingmaker, tanya allen granic, who was organizing support against sex ed. the beer in the corner store thing seems stupid and trivial to white people, but it's going to be a big deal for muslims, which is who wynne was really talking to - at the expense of her own party brand. but, by talking about this stuff, he scared people. on top of that, he speaks so vaguely about spending to a base that cares deeply about it that he has projected an aura of absolutely no credibility on fiscal concerns whatsoever. i think he even promised to run deficits.

so, what he had to do was build support in ethnic communities by pushing right-wing social messaging, while holding wealthy whites by appealing to their pocket books, and he's really done the exact opposite, alienating both groups of people.

i will say that: it's really a massive accomplishment to cut the tory base up. bravo, doug. that's been solid for decades. i guess if anybody could do it, it was going to be a ford brother.

this doesn't change any of the long term demographic realities i've been talking about. but, my fears of a realigning election appear to have been misfounded; the rejection of doug ford appears to be rather total. it's a tripartisan conclusion across race and class: this guy can't be running things.

but, again, that doesn't mean these people are going to vote ndp. it's more likely that they don't vote at all.

what if we get something like 15% turnout? is there a concept of quorum in the westminster system?

the ekos numbers in the last federal election were an actual outlier, and in the end it seemed to be that his methodology had a problem with undecided voters, who really only made up their mind to vote liberal at the very last minute. i suggested to him that he should publish undecideds.

he's not publishing these numbers.

i can speculate that he's dealing with the same basic concern, which is that his system is being broken by an electorate that doesn't want to give him a straight answer - because it doesn't have one. that's consistent with the other numbers i'm seeing.

...which isn't to say that i think he's making up numbers. i don't doubt that this is what he has. but, it seems to be reflecting low engagement, rather than a surge of young people swinging ndp. if young liberals & young conservatives just refuse to vote, or are tuning out of the system altogether due to awful choices, the historically solid - but smaller - ndp base looks dominant because they're the only people that are still bothering to show up. they're the only people still excited, the only people still into this.

voter apathy usually helps the conservatives. this is is usually explained by demographics, but it might also have something to do with the conservatives having a more robust grassroots - and they do. maybe a part of the reason that conservatives have higher voting retention is that they're more involved in the selection process. but, conservatives don't like their own guy this time, either. that's unusual.

it may be the ndp that has the most engaged base this election. and, if voter engagement amongst conservatives & liberals is really falling by up to 40%, they may win accidentally due to voter suppression.

it's not hard to believe that the ndp have the most engaged and dedicated voting base amongst young activists; if they're the only young people that bother to vote this election, you get that exaggerated skew out of nowhere.

this at least makes sense to me; it would be less that horwath is swinging all of these liberals all of a sudden, and more that the ndp is the only party that hasn't cratered with it's own support base. and, that is indeed sort of what happened in 1990, right?

but, as mentioned in the analysis, and also by mainstreet, the key variable appears to be turnout modelling. if the liberal ground game in toronto holds, or the conservatives can get the old folks excited after all, the calculation changes.

i'm just trying to get the point across so this isn't misunderstood: there doesn't appear to be a surge towards the ndp so much as there seems to be an extreme level of apathy setting in with the other two parties, which could allow the ndp to double the percentage of their vote, even as they don't actually swing anybody.

but, again: that might not translate into actual seats.

i'm still waiting on the mainstreet numbers.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_may_25_2018.pdf

forum, living up to it's reputation.

official rebuttal: c'mon.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

found a late announcement in a familiar place, and seem to be good to go for the night.

great.

i was initially thinking i had a good pick between two solid parties tomorrow night, and now i'm thinking neither one is really worth it, whether i can get in to the latter or not.

so, do i want to go to trip metal and go home early? that means catching the 1:00 bus, meaning i could probably catch the whole show. but, i think everybody playing is over 65.

the show starts at 4:00 pm.

i'm as picky about techno as i am about anything else, and i've learned the hard way that i'm not just going to ignore it in a blur of inebriation. there's lots of things happening tomorrow night, i'm just not particularly excited about any of it.

i am excited about staying out on a warm night. this is the first really seriously nice night of the year. but not at the expense of pissing away $100 on lacklustre sets.

the other two nights are better and will cost less.

i'm just worried that, if i go to the trip-metal thing, then i won't want to go home after.

ergh.

as things play out over the next few weeks, keep this in mind: andrea horwath doesn't like to fire people.

she thinks everybody deserves a second chance.

and then another chance after that.

and then another one.




































and then another one after that.

it may be more true at this point to suggest that techno invented detroit - as we know it - than that detroit invented techno.