https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
Sunday, August 28, 2016
j reacts to the error of using a regression analysis to try and predict elections
1) the polls he's using are garbage. garbage in, garbage out.
2) you just simply don't model elections using regression analysis and a line of best fit. elections are not natural phenomena. a trendline in a graph is absolutely meaningless. smoothing things out is backwards. you want to amplify the noise, not quiet it down.
one should expect that election polling will fly around all over the place, not follow a defined curve. it may be true that a constant rate of change from now into infinity will give trump 100% of the vote. it's ridiculous to apply it as predictive at all. even over a few months.
but, that's my point. you can't do elections like you do physics. it's just wrong.
that said, i agree that he's right in pointing out that there's a lot of volatility right now. i'd just be more likely to argue that this volatility is careening towards a possible clinton landslide...
as to the point: is it too early to run out the clock? broadly, yes. on the emails, specifically (the point of the article)? no. there's lots of outreach she can continue to do, but i agree that she's better off keeping her mouth shut about that specific topic.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-soon-for-clinton-to-run-out-the-clock/
2) you just simply don't model elections using regression analysis and a line of best fit. elections are not natural phenomena. a trendline in a graph is absolutely meaningless. smoothing things out is backwards. you want to amplify the noise, not quiet it down.
one should expect that election polling will fly around all over the place, not follow a defined curve. it may be true that a constant rate of change from now into infinity will give trump 100% of the vote. it's ridiculous to apply it as predictive at all. even over a few months.
but, that's my point. you can't do elections like you do physics. it's just wrong.
that said, i agree that he's right in pointing out that there's a lot of volatility right now. i'd just be more likely to argue that this volatility is careening towards a possible clinton landslide...
as to the point: is it too early to run out the clock? broadly, yes. on the emails, specifically (the point of the article)? no. there's lots of outreach she can continue to do, but i agree that she's better off keeping her mouth shut about that specific topic.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-soon-for-clinton-to-run-out-the-clock/
j reacts to the social value of yoga as just another excuse for capitalist assholery
yoga is a cult, and it turns people into shallow, mindless idiots.
the aerobics may be healthy. so, drop the bullshit and go to aerobics class.
the aerobics may be healthy. so, drop the bullshit and go to aerobics class.
i've never stated, in public or private, anything other than that my only regret was that i put my transition on hold way back when. i don't regret anything else that happened. and, i wouldn't do anything else differently. but i do very, very much wish that i would have dealt with this properly back in 2002.
the intent was to stop for a few months. that turned into a few years. and, it became financially difficult to pick up where i was.
it was a huge mistake....
....but i mean the choice to suspend was a mistake. x > y. sure. but, it's only that part that i'd reverse, if i could. then, we'd have to see what would happen from there....
yes: a lot of the things that happened would not have happened had i not paused. that is true. but, given that i did pause, i don't regret what i did. what i regret is only that i paused.
i simply can't know what the alternate path would have been, or how similar it would be to what actually happened. so, i can't say anything else. i can only look at the choices i actually made. and, there's really only one i'd reverse.
i'm sorry if that's not what you think, but i need to reiterate: i've never stated anything else. anything else is just in your head.
the intent was to stop for a few months. that turned into a few years. and, it became financially difficult to pick up where i was.
it was a huge mistake....
....but i mean the choice to suspend was a mistake. x > y. sure. but, it's only that part that i'd reverse, if i could. then, we'd have to see what would happen from there....
yes: a lot of the things that happened would not have happened had i not paused. that is true. but, given that i did pause, i don't regret what i did. what i regret is only that i paused.
i simply can't know what the alternate path would have been, or how similar it would be to what actually happened. so, i can't say anything else. i can only look at the choices i actually made. and, there's really only one i'd reverse.
i'm sorry if that's not what you think, but i need to reiterate: i've never stated anything else. anything else is just in your head.
j reacts to the mississippi floods and ignoring first nations regarding how to live here
that's one way to do it.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjTXGrMuJ078ocxiknyxZiCjFgR89cKFUICd2MXluT0Dt2zlECBJp2d4yHJ7g9Zx7hR0RTG_TMC6o_xi_LgNKkOXOe5LSHTdxElBUxBdeyEhjYIzbI16-7JV3CV-qa3XB5DsScJRlwSTfP/?imgmax=800
kind of makes this seem more obvious, though, doesn't it?
https://news.illinois.edu/blog/files/6367/205015/40716.jpg
americans living around the mississippi get up and evacuate every couple of years due to the flood waters, but they wait until it floods until they do it. the previous inhabitants of the region got out of the way every year, expecting the worse and no doubt preventing a lot of destruction in the process. that migration is ongoing. people just don't realize it.
less false dichotomies and more synthesis, please.
let me be a little presumptuous in suggesting that whatever is rebuilt in the region will be flooded again within a few years. you sure that's the best idea?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNaXdLWt17A
the mounds are a good idea. really.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjTXGrMuJ078ocxiknyxZiCjFgR89cKFUICd2MXluT0Dt2zlECBJp2d4yHJ7g9Zx7hR0RTG_TMC6o_xi_LgNKkOXOe5LSHTdxElBUxBdeyEhjYIzbI16-7JV3CV-qa3XB5DsScJRlwSTfP/?imgmax=800
kind of makes this seem more obvious, though, doesn't it?
https://news.illinois.edu/blog/files/6367/205015/40716.jpg
americans living around the mississippi get up and evacuate every couple of years due to the flood waters, but they wait until it floods until they do it. the previous inhabitants of the region got out of the way every year, expecting the worse and no doubt preventing a lot of destruction in the process. that migration is ongoing. people just don't realize it.
less false dichotomies and more synthesis, please.
let me be a little presumptuous in suggesting that whatever is rebuilt in the region will be flooded again within a few years. you sure that's the best idea?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNaXdLWt17A
the mounds are a good idea. really.
j reacts to the importance of the historic opportunity to permanently annihilate the gop
when this
election cycle started, a lot of people were talking about how trump was
a clown but he could maybe break open the two-party system. then, you
had the bernie or bust types that argued that a trump presidency may be
preferable because it will create a bigger backlash, and a part of me
agrees, but then what? another democrat?
how do we break this cycle?
the way the election has unfolded suggests that this may be the last election with a serious republican candidate. clinton is poaching the brains out of the republicans. all that's left is koch money, and it will be gone in eight years due to natural causes. the next election could feature the democrats as the conservative party on the right, with a sanders-inspired liberal party challenger. greens? somebody else? i don't know.
i think the tactic ought to be to worry less about who is the lesser of two evils (they're both flat out satanic) and focus more on taking the opportunity to help destroy the republican party.
if the democrats can pull off a full sweep in addition to their poaching of the intelligentsia, the republican party will be left without any hope of a future and the left can transcend the fear-mongering.
that's going to require a bit of a social movement. the seeds of this exist. you don't have to support clinton to attack trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSDm62Hmbf4
how do we break this cycle?
the way the election has unfolded suggests that this may be the last election with a serious republican candidate. clinton is poaching the brains out of the republicans. all that's left is koch money, and it will be gone in eight years due to natural causes. the next election could feature the democrats as the conservative party on the right, with a sanders-inspired liberal party challenger. greens? somebody else? i don't know.
i think the tactic ought to be to worry less about who is the lesser of two evils (they're both flat out satanic) and focus more on taking the opportunity to help destroy the republican party.
if the democrats can pull off a full sweep in addition to their poaching of the intelligentsia, the republican party will be left without any hope of a future and the left can transcend the fear-mongering.
that's going to require a bit of a social movement. the seeds of this exist. you don't have to support clinton to attack trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSDm62Hmbf4
j reacts to the looming canada post strike
i'm actually really not that concerned about the mail and whether it exists or not. i get two kinds of mail: stuff from the government, and fliers. almost everything i get from the government could be digitized, and i don't care at all about fliers.
the mail system absolutely needs to adjust to the digital world. what these people do is an anachronism. my criticism of the previous government on the mail issue was that they weren't going far enough, and they were botching the implementation. i don't even need to look at the accounting to know ahead of time that building community mailboxes is actually just going to increase costs.
so, i'm not going to get upset if this shuts down. rather, i'd request that they hurry up in digitizing. lots of people don't recycle.
i'd also support bylaws that outlaw flyering.
the mail system absolutely needs to adjust to the digital world. what these people do is an anachronism. my criticism of the previous government on the mail issue was that they weren't going far enough, and they were botching the implementation. i don't even need to look at the accounting to know ahead of time that building community mailboxes is actually just going to increase costs.
so, i'm not going to get upset if this shuts down. rather, i'd request that they hurry up in digitizing. lots of people don't recycle.
i'd also support bylaws that outlaw flyering.
again: quality v quantity misunderstands what i'm doing. the question is whether i'm being thorough in documentation, or haphazard about it. this is not a film production, it's a vlog. how detailed am i being?
another way to put it is that i don't really have control over the viewing quality of my life, nor am i particularly concerned by it. what i have control over is how meticulous i am in building a historical document.
i went from not being able to sleep to crashing really, really hard. we had some rain move in. it does that to me. i haven't been able to stay awake for more than a few hours at a time the last few days. i feel awake, but we'll see.
another way to put it is that i don't really have control over the viewing quality of my life, nor am i particularly concerned by it. what i have control over is how meticulous i am in building a historical document.
i went from not being able to sleep to crashing really, really hard. we had some rain move in. it does that to me. i haven't been able to stay awake for more than a few hours at a time the last few days. i feel awake, but we'll see.
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