Friday, April 24, 2020
i understand that the graph isn't perfect.
but, the up and down nature of it (no plateau of sustained levels) is pretty strongly suggestive of the lockdown having almost no effect.
this is just one city, and i must concede that new york was often presented in the modeling as the worst case scenario, as what happens when you do nothing at all - despite the fact that they did in fact do quite a bit. so, if it turns out that the actions taken by statist authorities had little to no effect on the outcome in new york, that may actually have minimal forecasting effects for other cities, for the reason that they acted too late; we don't yet know whether the numbers we're seeing in new york are proof of the futility of acting against the virus, or just evidence that they were too slow to act. we'll need to see the numbers in other cities, first.
but, they're saying now that there were thousand of cases in new york as early as january, meaning it took months to actually ramp up like this. what that means is if you're a city like toronto which we think is weeks behind new york, and you're watching your numbers tick up from 30ish to 50ish, this graph should scare the hell out of you.
one thing that we appear to have learned from this week is that immunity was high enough in new york to prevent an easter spike, but wasn't in detroit. it seems like toronto isn't far enough along the curve to be able to even detect an easter spike, yet.
this could be a vicious week here, in eastern canada. and, i suspect it will be. so, despite confusing messages, it's more important to be careful in ontario if you're at high risk than ever before.
whatever the effects of the quarantine end up being here in the end, i hope that locking down too early doesn't have the effect of creating lockdown fatigue. but, if people don't understand the risk this causes the elderly at this point, will they ever?
right now, convincing examples of bent curves are almost non-existent - almost everywhere, we're seeing peaks and falls or slower ramp ups than initially thought. but, it will be this week and the next that the regions that locked down as early as possible will get to the point in the curve where you can start to really make more serious deductions.
i hope that the loss of life is minimal.
but, eastern canada should brace for the worst.
thankfully, it seems clear that we have.
i just want to tersely comment on the falling new york death toll.
i think everybody would like to see these numbers fall faster than they are, but this is a fairly rapid and steady decline that we're seeing. it's certainly not a sustained death toll. or, not yet, anyways.
again: there should be some background level, in the end, so don't expect it to fall to zero.
the term i used, crash, may have been somewhat unfortunate. but, the question is whether it's falling steadily or levelling off, and it's the former that is clearly more true.
i think everybody would like to see these numbers fall faster than they are, but this is a fairly rapid and steady decline that we're seeing. it's certainly not a sustained death toll. or, not yet, anyways.
again: there should be some background level, in the end, so don't expect it to fall to zero.
the term i used, crash, may have been somewhat unfortunate. but, the question is whether it's falling steadily or levelling off, and it's the former that is clearly more true.
one more update...
and, i had to sort through this, but this month was far less eventful than the second half of last month, and the update will reflect that.
i'm very, very close to getting back to work, for the first time since february. finally...
=====
- spent morning of 31st shopping
- had panic attack at far store, after experiencing some sore legs from walking.
- made it home, slept for 12 hours.
- back up early on 1st without turning modem back on, ate a big meal, was back out for more shopping. out all day, again. leg still sore...
- got soy milk last, and picked up some pot at store downtown to deal with sore leg. crashed when i got home.
- up early on the 2nd, and finally turned modem back on after roughly 48 hours, but just briefly. there was serious traffic logged for the 31st (and should have been almost none), with minimal traffic on the 1st (should have been exactly none.)
- went for long walk to get soy (using pot as aid), finally found it at closest store, on way back. crashed all day, up late in the evening.
- checked usage stats early on the 3rd and saw no traffic for the 2nd, which should have been for the first. odd, but the server seems to have reset.
- was there entry when i was gone? hard to say. some weak evidence. more importantly, server reset...because they came in and reset it?
- finished smoking the pot and kind of relaxed for the day. read the news. slept some more.
- usage stats on the 4th were in my normal range, if offset. this repeats itself from here on in.
and, i had to sort through this, but this month was far less eventful than the second half of last month, and the update will reflect that.
i'm very, very close to getting back to work, for the first time since february. finally...
=====
- spent morning of 31st shopping
- had panic attack at far store, after experiencing some sore legs from walking.
- made it home, slept for 12 hours.
- back up early on 1st without turning modem back on, ate a big meal, was back out for more shopping. out all day, again. leg still sore...
- got soy milk last, and picked up some pot at store downtown to deal with sore leg. crashed when i got home.
- up early on the 2nd, and finally turned modem back on after roughly 48 hours, but just briefly. there was serious traffic logged for the 31st (and should have been almost none), with minimal traffic on the 1st (should have been exactly none.)
- went for long walk to get soy (using pot as aid), finally found it at closest store, on way back. crashed all day, up late in the evening.
- checked usage stats early on the 3rd and saw no traffic for the 2nd, which should have been for the first. odd, but the server seems to have reset.
- was there entry when i was gone? hard to say. some weak evidence. more importantly, server reset...because they came in and reset it?
- finished smoking the pot and kind of relaxed for the day. read the news. slept some more.
- usage stats on the 4th were in my normal range, if offset. this repeats itself from here on in.
- went out on saturday morning (4th) to get more soy milk + a quarter of marijuana at the store, as they were closing indefinitely (past 4/20). crashed when i got back...
- still sleepy on the 5th, but starting to refocus. smoking through quarter.
(so, week was spent shopping. internet issue resolved itself.)
- finally finished very long sunsquabi/beethoven review on 6th.
- finished control top review on 8th.
- back to blog cleaning until the 11th
- realized on the 10th that the court was open this week. sort of. for virtual sittings, not filings...
- concert list on 11th, formatted laptop hard drive, then reviews over the 11th/12th, ending in list
- created bounds for vlogging cleanup on the 13th
- finished quarter on 13th
- not great pot, didn't have intended effect
(so, week was spent smoking pot and cleaning up blog & ranting about virus)
- slept for a few days...
- made multiple calls on 14th,
such as calling court to ask if hearing has been cancelled, and if there's a process to reschedule. sent email instead. (answer: day-today, not clear yet).
called cra.
called human rights tribunal, sent email for clarification. (answer: everything on hold, will pick up when feasible)
- finally woke up on the 15th
- called pharmacy, still pushing generic estrogen. got pushy. so, switched to other pharmacy instead.
- grocery shopping on afternoon of 15th (needed salami.), then picked up pills very late on 15th.
- after analyzing different delivery systems, decided to experiment with sublingual application on a weekly basis
- prometrium switch?
- much ranting on 16th/17th + eating & get smart. cleaning. laundry. shower.
- 18th: finished laundry, reimaged laptop, ate, etc
- 19th: back to vlogging, but not really. first entry, then concert lookahead, actually.
- 20th: sat down to switchover, got most of the vlogging updates done.
(so, week was spent cleaning in various ways & ranting heavily)
- 21st/22nd: built notes for long vlog update, ranted
- 23rd: notes posted, vlog updated over morning of 23rd.
- 23rd/24th/25th: finished these notes, last vlog updates before return
to be clear, i'm not a doctor. but, my analysis here is not medical.
i've certainly studied a wider range of science at a higher level than even the general educated public, so i will sometimes take the initiative to clarify or correct the mass ignorance in the media reports. i don't even look at social media any more; the lack of scientific literacy just makes me sad. but, making corrections to the science is not the focus, here.
so, i have heightened scientific literacy, but i'm not a scientist. but, that's not the focus of the analysis, so pointing it out is what's called a red herring.
rather, my degrees are in mathematics, computer science and law. what you should cite me as is an independent mathematician. and, that's what my analysis here is about.
but, my education aside, my passion is my art, and that is where i would prefer to focus my labour, my life and my mind.
i'm really providing this as a public service out of a sense of altruism. like, there's not even ads on the blog. i gain nothing from this besides clarity gained from the process of typing, and there's certainly some stress release in it.
so, take it for what it is - and take it or leave it. but, don't misconstrue it. i'm neither a doctor, nor pretending i am one. but, this isn't a problem for a doctor, it's a problem for a mathematician - and i am qualified to speak from that perspective.
i've certainly studied a wider range of science at a higher level than even the general educated public, so i will sometimes take the initiative to clarify or correct the mass ignorance in the media reports. i don't even look at social media any more; the lack of scientific literacy just makes me sad. but, making corrections to the science is not the focus, here.
so, i have heightened scientific literacy, but i'm not a scientist. but, that's not the focus of the analysis, so pointing it out is what's called a red herring.
rather, my degrees are in mathematics, computer science and law. what you should cite me as is an independent mathematician. and, that's what my analysis here is about.
but, my education aside, my passion is my art, and that is where i would prefer to focus my labour, my life and my mind.
i'm really providing this as a public service out of a sense of altruism. like, there's not even ads on the blog. i gain nothing from this besides clarity gained from the process of typing, and there's certainly some stress release in it.
so, take it for what it is - and take it or leave it. but, don't misconstrue it. i'm neither a doctor, nor pretending i am one. but, this isn't a problem for a doctor, it's a problem for a mathematician - and i am qualified to speak from that perspective.
again: the president gets the biggest, greatest, bestest briefings in the whole world.
i don't know why he insists on speaking like a character in a lewis carroll novel. but, he certainly doesn't have a deficit of information available to him. and, like the most allegorical texts, he shouldn't be discarded offhand - as absurd as he so frequently sounds, his statements need to be analyzed carefully.
no. that's what we learned. and, unlike you, i'm not a slow learner.
i don't know why he insists on speaking like a character in a lewis carroll novel. but, he certainly doesn't have a deficit of information available to him. and, like the most allegorical texts, he shouldn't be discarded offhand - as absurd as he so frequently sounds, his statements need to be analyzed carefully.
no. that's what we learned. and, unlike you, i'm not a slow learner.
so, what i've learned at this point is that trump is talking in riddles that he thinks his supporters are more likely to understand, rather than deferring to technical language that he likely has problems with, himself.
these statements appear at first glance to be delving into schizophrenia, or dementia. they simply come off as insane.
but, there have been reports about vitamin d deficiency being a risk factor not just for covid-19 but for a variety of health concerns. vitamins don't cure diseases on their own, but your body is essentially a factory that produces chemicals that control your body's operation, and deficiencies of raw materials will make it difficult for your body to function properly. vitamin deficiency is widely understood as a major underlying problem in the general health of americans. the culture is practically defined by it's romanticization of eating what most of the rest of the world would consider poison or garbage.
is he trying to get people to get outside to synthesize enough d?
and is that a general point we should all be reminded of, as we spend weeks inside, with no sun?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html
these statements appear at first glance to be delving into schizophrenia, or dementia. they simply come off as insane.
but, there have been reports about vitamin d deficiency being a risk factor not just for covid-19 but for a variety of health concerns. vitamins don't cure diseases on their own, but your body is essentially a factory that produces chemicals that control your body's operation, and deficiencies of raw materials will make it difficult for your body to function properly. vitamin deficiency is widely understood as a major underlying problem in the general health of americans. the culture is practically defined by it's romanticization of eating what most of the rest of the world would consider poison or garbage.
is he trying to get people to get outside to synthesize enough d?
and is that a general point we should all be reminded of, as we spend weeks inside, with no sun?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html
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