as i've pointed out repeatedly, the fundamental problem is that biden thinks he's solving the larger israel-palestine issue (ala camp david more so than oslo) rather than dealing with the particular problem in front of us, which is destroying hamas. he had a predefined plan in place when he took over office and has resisted the need to change it to reflect shifts in facts and reality. as a result, he's creating problems, not solutions.

he has consequently defined "success" as getting a peace treaty, which might have been fine even two years ago, but makes no sense after october 7th, which changed everything and which he's not reacting to.

the goal of the white house should be destroying hamas, not getting a peace deal between israel and gaza, and trying to aggressively enforce a pre-oct 7 reality on a government dealing with a foundational shift in reality should be and largely is being seen as disgusting.

this is some evidence that he's maybe accepting the new reality. but the best thing that the united states can do is speed this up by helping israel get to the finish line, and stop slowing it down by aggressively seeking this illusory peace deal.

what biden wants as an outcome - a solution to the broader conflct - is not going to happen before january but will require the elimination of hamas as a prerequisite.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-biden-doesnt-want-to-reward-hamas-with-more-concessions-after-hostage-executions/

the ndp are stepping away from the liberals and they are pointing to stalled legislation, which ought to be a good reason, but the reality is that ther polling is cratering, as they're seen as being a part of an unpopular government.

this is tricky in a three party system.

generally, a decrease in ndp support most benefits the liberals, and if you're familiar with thinking in the ndp, you might realize that a primary purpose of the coalition agreement was to prevent an election the conservatives would win.

had trudeau just fucked off years ago, the liberals might be in a better position. currently, there's no foreseeable outcome but another liberal minority, and a decrease in ndp support would indicate that they should call the election now and not wait. 

the actual reality is that the leadership of the ndp would approve of that.

everybody said it was crazy that canada was providing easy access to the united states for terrorists. 

well, there wasn't any evidence.

there is now.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-newman-trudeaus-canada-safe-for-alleged-terrorist-targeting-new-york-jews

i think this is a more realistic map and i'm posting it for a reason.

even if harris wins all of the "sun belt" states, and even if she wins michigan, which i think is very likely, she still has to win one of {minnesota, wisconsin, pennsylvania} to win.

if i were to predict an outcome today, it would be this:

should harris focus on north carolina instead?

i woudn't advise it.

it's worth noting that kamala harris chose to release an endorsement by corporate ceos on the same day that biden signed an executive order on labour standards, undercutting the ability of these corporate ceos to hire illegal labour under the table.

it's as though she finds the idea of standing with workers to be embarassing and had to do some damage control, which is the status quo ante in the contemporary democratic party and in the liberal party of canada as well. if these workers were smart, they'd be managers and worth standing in solidarity with. right?  who cares about dumb workers. they don't fund the party.

it sends a pretty clear message, if you're listening.