and, let the rest of the world take note - this is how america treats it's friends and allies.

donald trump is a bully. and, like all bullies, he seeks out easy targets. canada is the easiest target he can find.

it's not more complicated than that.

i understand that the trudeau government's instincts are to play buddy-buddy, point to the fact that we're allies under norad and nato and hope there's a rational human being in there somewhere. this is what all canadians really want. but, for at least the next four years, this is the wrong approach.

when a bully targets you because you're easy meat, you have no choice but to stand up for yourself.

they should call his bluff and make a fool out of him, and do it as internationally as possible. humiliate him on the world stage. teach him a lesson.

that's how you deal with bullies.

i've been clear about my views on this.

1) trump is going to face domestic opposition to renegotiation. the congress will not give him what he wants.
2) therefore, he's bluffing.
3) i never liked nafta much, anyways. plus, we have the fta to fall back on.
4) let's call him on his bluff by offering to pull out of nafta. we don't have a congress that can block us. we can do this in 90 days. we can give him what he wants, if he wants it. but, of course, it's going to cost him.
5) oh, wait. he likes nafta after all?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-canada-trade-options-analysis-idUSKBN17R2TL

most recent poll in ontario:

none of the above - 45%
patrick brown (conservative) - 23%
andrea horwath (ndp) - 22%
kathleen wynne (liberal) - 9%

don't think this isn't in play.

it's in play...

...but the numbers have to move, soon. and, if they don't, we need to get off the sinking ship.

i guess the parties have been reading the polls.

this is a good idea. it's not expensive; it actually saves money.

the provincial liberals want it done nationally, but this is one of the things that trudeau has walked away from. but, listen: if this election ends up as a fight between the ndp and the liberals over who can be more populist, we all win in the long run.

....just so long as we don't split the vote, which is going to have to be the factor that actually motivates me in lining up behind one or the other, in the end. wynne has a huge hole to climb out of, and if she doesn't make some progress soon, we're all going to have to cut the line to keep the tories out - and i'm not going to pretend this isn't so.

(my riding is not in play)

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/04/24/ndp-liberal-battle-for-hearts-and-votes-of-progressives-cohn.html

did trump just tell trudeau to "just watch"?

i mean, i suppose he could have had no idea what that implies, but those are some words, up here.

they were talking about this before.

apparently, studies done in the past suggest that the ubi doesn't provide a disincentive towards working. i'd guess this is probably due to social coercion.

i would personally not be subject to such coercion. but, i'm unemployable, anyways - and i think that's the more key point. it's going to be a hard sell to certain groups, but if you want to do this experiment, you have to separate out the noise. i mean, call me a loser if you want. or call me an artist with an unmarketable product. that's not so important, in context; what's more important is that nobody is going to hire me any time soon, anyways, so the ubi isn't keeping me out of the work force.

the point is that you have to scratch people like me off the list. let's hope they actually do it, so i'm not skewing the results. for me, the whole thing really reduces to not needing to go through the hassle of getting my odsp renewed again - and also to a bit of a boost in income. how much?

to ease the pain on the calvinists, which are the real opposition here (even when they don't realize they're calvinists...), i want to draw attention to the numbers they're floating around. i'm on the ontario disability support, which is $1128/month - and i fully acknowledge that this feels like it's generous in the part of the province i live in (although, the caveat is that i moved across the province to allow for it). i have plenty of spending money, as those that follow me can see clearly. that works out to $13,536/year. this is before tax credits, but i'm going to assume that they will remain (because nobody has suggested otherwise). i wouldn't push back on swapping the trillium out for a ubi, though.

the article puts the number of $16,989 down, which is $1415.75/month. so, i would get a boost in benefits of $287.75/month - substantial, to say the least. that's a 26% boost, and i'm not even paying union dues. if i was moving from welfare to the ubi it would be more like a 215% boost in income. and, if i renewed my disability, i may be potentially eligible for another $500/month, making the total increase close to 70%.

but, calvinists should calm down.

at $16,989/year, that would be equivalent to about $8.17/hour, if the person worked 40 hours a week. the minimum wage is about $11.50, and living wage advocates in toronto are pushing for something closer to $20. so, there remain plenty of incentives to work, depending on where you live. in toronto or ottawa, this would merely make the desperately poor a little less desperate. here in windsor, it may be harder to make that argument, but the economy is terrible, anyways. if i stay on disability and this goes through, i could conceivably buy property here with $23,000/year. that's less than i made at microsoft, but pretty close to what i made working tech support for hp - in ottawa, in 2006. it's almost minimum wage, now.

so, the numbers seem to be crunched for toronto and that may be some insular thinking. this is unsustainable if you don't adjust for living costs, locally. if you try and find some middle point, i'll get twice what i need and somebody in a wheelchair in toronto will get half what she needs. it's a big province, with big disparities. and, this is arguably at the root of the cause in the first place - they aren't doing this, and it's what they need to do.

but, it's good to see some work moving in this direction.

https://news.ontario.ca/mcss/en/2017/04/ontarios-basic-income-pilot.html

"Canada is supposed to be fair for everybody." - justin trudeau

no, don't misunderstand - i'm not being snide. it's almost precocious, in a way - in a sort of childlike naivete. but, i'm not pushing back - this is what you want to hear from a dauphin growing into his role. you want to almost be proud of him, or something.

he's right. canada is supposed to be fair for everybody. and, we should applaud the prime minister for upholding the social contract and passing legislation that makes it a little bit more fair, when he can.