trump will win if he runs as an anti-war candidate with strong libertarian leanings. in fact, i will go so far as stating the following: the republicans will not win another presidential election until they run a libertarian candidate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N7e9aRflO8
the reality is that trying to run to the right of clinton is a very narrow path. that's going to be her tactic, of course - to control not just the center of the road, but a good portion of the right of it. she's going to try to muscle him off on to the curb - and she's not just smarter than him....she's got bigger arms, too. if he lets her do this, she's going to body slam into the ditch. and, this is the popular reading of the election - she gets 65% of the vote and wins all the red states by presenting herself as the more reasonable and more moderate conservative, while he sputters out with gun nuts and kooky nationalists.
he's not strong enough to push back. she's got the establishment and the media on her side. it's a losing fight; she will crush him like a bug.
the only way for him to get out of this is to swing out and try and rally her left flank to mutiny. they're not going to need a lot of convincing, either. they're just going to need something halfways articulate and convincingly sane. but, that's kind of a tough sell - and getting tougher every day.