https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
Friday, August 5, 2016
j reacts to two more decent polls
the investor's business daily. that doesn't invoke a lot of confidence.
but, the methodology is sound, and the results are consistent - if a little pro-republican. investor's business daily? but, that's useful variance if it's mild and the methodology checks out. it does.
so, we have four polling firms now that are worth aggregating.
the polling story for the week is that stein has seen a measurable bump. let's see if it holds into next week.
--
actually, i missed the mclatchy poll, which is also good. this is an outlier right now - clinton+14? she's not up much. it's more that trump is barely pushing 30.
they claim it's a straight sample. that's interesting to me, because i'd have expected the opposite phenomenon - that weighting would be helping clinton. weighting is another valid debate. i don't think that we can get away with not weighting at all, which is to say the data there is probably a little too raw, but i'd think that the general trend right now is to fuck with the data too much. so, again: that's probably wrong, but it's useful. and, as mentioned, it's surprising. what it suggests is that the other polling firms may be exaggerating trump's lead with white people.
so, we've got five polls, now. that's good enough, i think.
but, the methodology is sound, and the results are consistent - if a little pro-republican. investor's business daily? but, that's useful variance if it's mild and the methodology checks out. it does.
so, we have four polling firms now that are worth aggregating.
the polling story for the week is that stein has seen a measurable bump. let's see if it holds into next week.
--
actually, i missed the mclatchy poll, which is also good. this is an outlier right now - clinton+14? she's not up much. it's more that trump is barely pushing 30.
they claim it's a straight sample. that's interesting to me, because i'd have expected the opposite phenomenon - that weighting would be helping clinton. weighting is another valid debate. i don't think that we can get away with not weighting at all, which is to say the data there is probably a little too raw, but i'd think that the general trend right now is to fuck with the data too much. so, again: that's probably wrong, but it's useful. and, as mentioned, it's surprising. what it suggests is that the other polling firms may be exaggerating trump's lead with white people.
so, we've got five polls, now. that's good enough, i think.
j reacts to a picture served up to me by google pictures while researching walking shoes
i need some new shoes and am trying to figure out if i should get something a little more designed for walking, or just stick with my characteristic frugality...
the last time i bought shoes was in mar, 2014. the pair of skate shoes somebody gave me, and were being worn all year in ottawa where there is much more snow, had developed some giant holes in them from the salt. these were expensive shoes, but salt does what salt does. realizing that salt in the winter is a fact of life in canada, i bought two pairs of very cheap ($5/each) walking shoes and expected them to meet the same fate.
but, the winters here are not as bad. even the cold doesn't necessarily bring snow, so the salt issue is just not comparable. i bought cheap shoes expecting the salt to get them within a few months, and instead got over a year out of both of them - which were in fact both worn down from sheer walking. i just walked through them...
i also quit smoking, so i'm not out in the salt 20 times a day anymore.
around the same time, i also bought a pair of sparkly pink fake cons. see, i know how i wear shoes down, so why waste money on them? but, i don't want to wear a pair of $5 walking shoes out somewhere, like a concert, either. i was down to these shoes on my compost run today and came back with sore feet. they're not worse than the cheap walking shoes, but that's kind of the point. i'm going to keep going on these four or five hour walks. so, should i spend a little and get something with better support? does it really matter?
see, here's the thing: how long can you really walk for before your feet get tired? my legs aren't tired. i'm fit enough that i could have walked another five hours. but, do shoes actually exist that can facilitate such a thing, or am i just being unrealistic and utopian again?
i've said this so many times, though: i am actually a very happy person. i want for little. people seem confused, because they think i have so little. i'm talking about buying shoes that i can walk hours in without my feet getting sore, and then i say i'm happy. why don't i want a car? but, maybe that's just exactly it, right?
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqb-XbK0rDsf-m7XaM-IkSdnlyhmTvk77a2hDYq-FgHxWIC6DVV8D4z7lUl2ADT2PrvnplSkr_pJJVxS-2gCQeCjy1YH5HOe3trv8FvrUWQT4NgqXUn3uE9PgtFWxuXTvL7nR4WySOodg/s640/1.jpeg
the last time i bought shoes was in mar, 2014. the pair of skate shoes somebody gave me, and were being worn all year in ottawa where there is much more snow, had developed some giant holes in them from the salt. these were expensive shoes, but salt does what salt does. realizing that salt in the winter is a fact of life in canada, i bought two pairs of very cheap ($5/each) walking shoes and expected them to meet the same fate.
but, the winters here are not as bad. even the cold doesn't necessarily bring snow, so the salt issue is just not comparable. i bought cheap shoes expecting the salt to get them within a few months, and instead got over a year out of both of them - which were in fact both worn down from sheer walking. i just walked through them...
i also quit smoking, so i'm not out in the salt 20 times a day anymore.
around the same time, i also bought a pair of sparkly pink fake cons. see, i know how i wear shoes down, so why waste money on them? but, i don't want to wear a pair of $5 walking shoes out somewhere, like a concert, either. i was down to these shoes on my compost run today and came back with sore feet. they're not worse than the cheap walking shoes, but that's kind of the point. i'm going to keep going on these four or five hour walks. so, should i spend a little and get something with better support? does it really matter?
see, here's the thing: how long can you really walk for before your feet get tired? my legs aren't tired. i'm fit enough that i could have walked another five hours. but, do shoes actually exist that can facilitate such a thing, or am i just being unrealistic and utopian again?
i've said this so many times, though: i am actually a very happy person. i want for little. people seem confused, because they think i have so little. i'm talking about buying shoes that i can walk hours in without my feet getting sore, and then i say i'm happy. why don't i want a car? but, maybe that's just exactly it, right?
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqb-XbK0rDsf-m7XaM-IkSdnlyhmTvk77a2hDYq-FgHxWIC6DVV8D4z7lUl2ADT2PrvnplSkr_pJJVxS-2gCQeCjy1YH5HOe3trv8FvrUWQT4NgqXUn3uE9PgtFWxuXTvL7nR4WySOodg/s640/1.jpeg
j reacts to the idea of buying out the ambassador bridge (do it!)
i think that buying the bridge would solve a lot of problems, actually. well, i wouldn't even buy it, i'd just seize it. but, the reality is that while we can lament how we got into this mess and try and learn from it, the fact that we have this bridge in private hands is a catastrophe and virtually everything and anything should be done to reverse the problem.
this is not my riding. i'm a block away, in windsor-tecumseh. and, i did vote liberal in the last election because i liked what frank schiller had to say about nafta (even though i realized he wouldn't be listened to) and, perhaps more importantly, i found cheryl hardcastle's views on gmos to be disqualifying. it wasn't the issue of gmos, exactly, but what it more broadly implied about her scientific literacy levels.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/brian-masse-says-dwight-duncan-s-mandate-is-to-build-not-buy-a-bridge-1.3708665
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZefOPHAekM
this is not my riding. i'm a block away, in windsor-tecumseh. and, i did vote liberal in the last election because i liked what frank schiller had to say about nafta (even though i realized he wouldn't be listened to) and, perhaps more importantly, i found cheryl hardcastle's views on gmos to be disqualifying. it wasn't the issue of gmos, exactly, but what it more broadly implied about her scientific literacy levels.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/brian-masse-says-dwight-duncan-s-mandate-is-to-build-not-buy-a-bridge-1.3708665
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZefOPHAekM
j reacts to the obvious superiority of technocratic government
i know this may sound alien and quaint, but the place i always looked to for social leadership was actually the sciences. it took me the longest time to figure out how naive that was...
so, i remember not understanding why nobody cared about climate change. to me, it was natural for the scientists to take a leadership role in shaping society. it wasn't even progress. i didn't even see it as debatable, really. it was just obvious that society should be run by scientists.
as an adult, i can look back at myself and label myself a technocrat. i do retain the term, sometimes. in fact, that was my initial point of interest in (scientific) socialism, whatever the oxymorons in the term, and however apparent that is to me, now. why were lawyers running the country? what did they know about science? liberals, conservatives....what's this boring shit....where's the science party?
you can imagine how crushed i was when i realized that most people looked not towards scientists and academics for leadership but towards athletes and entertainers. and, this is coming from somebody that has had a deep love of music for as long as i can remember, but that understood it for what it actually is. what the fuck was wrong with people? just another factor for misanthropy, for depression, for disassociation - or to withdraw...
even in my early 20s, i couldn't really grapple with the truth of it. i got it, but i didn't really get it. it wasn't until i was able to talk to some people from outside the continent that i was able to get my head around how abnormal the society really is. university professors can hold televised news conferences in prime time in france; in korea, scientists can generate rallies that can pack sports stadiums.
the issue become apparent to me: what i truly need to grapple with is what the fuck it is that is wrong with us.
so, i remember not understanding why nobody cared about climate change. to me, it was natural for the scientists to take a leadership role in shaping society. it wasn't even progress. i didn't even see it as debatable, really. it was just obvious that society should be run by scientists.
as an adult, i can look back at myself and label myself a technocrat. i do retain the term, sometimes. in fact, that was my initial point of interest in (scientific) socialism, whatever the oxymorons in the term, and however apparent that is to me, now. why were lawyers running the country? what did they know about science? liberals, conservatives....what's this boring shit....where's the science party?
you can imagine how crushed i was when i realized that most people looked not towards scientists and academics for leadership but towards athletes and entertainers. and, this is coming from somebody that has had a deep love of music for as long as i can remember, but that understood it for what it actually is. what the fuck was wrong with people? just another factor for misanthropy, for depression, for disassociation - or to withdraw...
even in my early 20s, i couldn't really grapple with the truth of it. i got it, but i didn't really get it. it wasn't until i was able to talk to some people from outside the continent that i was able to get my head around how abnormal the society really is. university professors can hold televised news conferences in prime time in france; in korea, scientists can generate rallies that can pack sports stadiums.
the issue become apparent to me: what i truly need to grapple with is what the fuck it is that is wrong with us.
j reacts to criminal negligence in the context of the anarchist social contract
criminal negligence revolves around the concept of reasonable precaution. what is at question here is ultimately not whether he carried out an act or not, or even if he did so on purpose, but whether he took the proper precautions to ensure it didn't happen. the legal question will likely revolve around the discussion he had with the person that actually prepared the food. did he point out the allergy clearly enough on the order?
the article is poorly written - it does not provide any facts. but, if the waiter expressed the allergies with a sufficient level of force, then it falls upon the cook.
it is very difficult to see how any judge in any liberal democracy could legally fault the victim for forgetting their epipen.
but, a lot of how you react to this is going to depend on what kind of social contract you feel is best applied. i'm an advocate of the proudhonian social contract, but less so of the one promoted by rousseau. i do consequently think that the waiter has a moral, legal and social responsibility to ensure that he does not poison anybody, and that he should face collective punitive action by society should he not uphold that social contract.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/sherbrooke-waiter-arrested-salmon-allergic-customer-negligence-1.3707667
the article is poorly written - it does not provide any facts. but, if the waiter expressed the allergies with a sufficient level of force, then it falls upon the cook.
it is very difficult to see how any judge in any liberal democracy could legally fault the victim for forgetting their epipen.
but, a lot of how you react to this is going to depend on what kind of social contract you feel is best applied. i'm an advocate of the proudhonian social contract, but less so of the one promoted by rousseau. i do consequently think that the waiter has a moral, legal and social responsibility to ensure that he does not poison anybody, and that he should face collective punitive action by society should he not uphold that social contract.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/sherbrooke-waiter-arrested-salmon-allergic-customer-negligence-1.3707667
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