we should protect the weak, yes.
we shouldn't let their needs dominate, or define the response.
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
do we need a re-evaluation of morals on this continent?
we'll, i'd argue we already had one, and we're kind of in a point of flux regarding which side really wins the debate. we're in the midst of a major generational overturn, that's being muddled and confused by increasing levels of slave morality via mass immigration.
like nietszche, i'm not a nihilist. i'd rather call for the rationalization of christian morality, and would even settle for a sort of re-embrace of natural law, at least to start, than an embrace of master morality. i'm not a christian at all, but i am a secular humanist. christianity actually has a history, however flawed, of using logic and reason to uncover right from wrong, and that's actually the tradition i'd most identify as being a part of.
but, any roman emperor would consider what we're doing to be insane, and i'm certainly leaning in that direction, myself.
we'll, i'd argue we already had one, and we're kind of in a point of flux regarding which side really wins the debate. we're in the midst of a major generational overturn, that's being muddled and confused by increasing levels of slave morality via mass immigration.
like nietszche, i'm not a nihilist. i'd rather call for the rationalization of christian morality, and would even settle for a sort of re-embrace of natural law, at least to start, than an embrace of master morality. i'm not a christian at all, but i am a secular humanist. christianity actually has a history, however flawed, of using logic and reason to uncover right from wrong, and that's actually the tradition i'd most identify as being a part of.
but, any roman emperor would consider what we're doing to be insane, and i'm certainly leaning in that direction, myself.
at
22:20
but, the nature of the problem means that you have to wait for the simulation to end before you can draw valid conclusions.
i think they're probably doing this better - and i have a stronger level of identification with the value system underlying their approach.
but, we'll need to wait to see.
i think they're probably doing this better - and i have a stronger level of identification with the value system underlying their approach.
but, we'll need to wait to see.
at
22:01
i can follow nietszche in setting out two basic concepts of morality - a slave morality which comes from evolutionary pressures attached to the settled, agricultural areas of the middle east and a master morality which comes from evolutionary pressures attached to nomadic civilizations, like the mongolians or the indo-europeans.
in reality, cultures are mixes of these ideas. so, the romans and greeks both initially followed very dominant master moralities, before having it softened up due to the effects of being settled into agriculture, something that ended with christianization (but started with plato). sweden is not what it was 1000 years ago, but it was arguably never fully christianized, so that difference in values is still very real.
i would have identified with the franks in 476.
and, i'll identify with the swedes, now.
sorry.
in reality, cultures are mixes of these ideas. so, the romans and greeks both initially followed very dominant master moralities, before having it softened up due to the effects of being settled into agriculture, something that ended with christianization (but started with plato). sweden is not what it was 1000 years ago, but it was arguably never fully christianized, so that difference in values is still very real.
i would have identified with the franks in 476.
and, i'll identify with the swedes, now.
sorry.
at
22:00
but, let's be clear on the point.
i know this is a false dichotomy, but let's over-simplify, anyways.
if you think that freedom is a more important value than security, you're a liberal; if you think that security is a more important value than freedom, you're a conservative.
at
21:42
stated tersely: i don't think there's any meaningful evidence right now that what sweden is doing is worse from a public health standpoint, but we'll have to wait and see. it's not going to be until or if death counts in sweden start to tick up over 20,000 that grounds to second guess the approach will have any merit.
but, it's clearly been far less invasive on people's freedom.
in the end, what the more important concern is is a value judgement, and the following may be a valid deduction when this is over: swedish values are a little different than elsewhere.
but, it's clearly been far less invasive on people's freedom.
in the end, what the more important concern is is a value judgement, and the following may be a valid deduction when this is over: swedish values are a little different than elsewhere.
at
21:30
so, when the who says that sweden may be a model moving forward, are they on to something?
i'd say they are - it's backing up what i said previously.
but, they should probably stay mum for a bit longer; i'm an anarchist with a blog, they're the world health organization. we have somewhat different standards, and their's at least shouldn't be met, yet.
i'd say they are - it's backing up what i said previously.
but, they should probably stay mum for a bit longer; i'm an anarchist with a blog, they're the world health organization. we have somewhat different standards, and their's at least shouldn't be met, yet.
at
21:17
how is sweden doing?
well, you could be naive and just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases. but, we know that's a horribly retarded analysis, at this point. rather, as deaths are a direct metric and official government case counts are basically worthless information, what you need to do is try to calculate an accurate number of cases via the number of deaths, and an estimate of the mortality rate.
a good estimate of the mortality rate right now is between 0.1-0.5%. this is somewhere between the seasonal flu and the spanish flu, but much closer to the spanish flu.
so, an off the cuff calculation would suggest they have between 500,000-2,500,000 cases.
"but, that means they're failing. look at all of the cases."
again - that's based on the idea that you can burn the virus out, which we know is a horribly retarded opinion. as the population of sweden is around 10.25 million, that would suggest that between 5%-25% of the population is now immune to the virus, at least until it mutates.
at 66% for protective immunity, i would suggest a lower bound for the death toll would be about 6800 in the end.
now, is it fair to compare sweden to new york city? well, sweden is a country, and new york city is a city. that means that sweden has varying population densities, and new york city doesn't. the north of sweden is even basically a different country. the answer is "no, not really".
what kind of numbers do you get by doing the same analysis on data from the united states? the answer is that there are probably between 12 million and 62 million cases in the united states, indicating there's between 4%-19% immunity.
"so, if america has lower immunity, then it's winning. the lockdowns are working! hooray!"
well, they don't say americans are stupid without evidence, right?
these are marginal differences, in truth. but, i'd rather get to immunity faster, meaning i'd argue that sweden is winning.
what about canada?
calculating case counts from the death toll and a reasonable mortality rate, you're looking at between 600,000 and 3,000,000 actual cases - most in the detroit-quebec city corridor. that's 2%-8% immunity. so, unfortunately, canada would be rather far behind on building immunity, right now - but immunity is probably much higher in the more populated regions, even if it lags behind in the rural areas.
note: these calculations are extremely haphazard, in that you probably shouldn't compare the entirety of sweden to the entirety of the united states or the entirety of canada, even if it's better than comparing the entirety of sweden to the city of new york.
well, you could be naive and just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases. but, we know that's a horribly retarded analysis, at this point. rather, as deaths are a direct metric and official government case counts are basically worthless information, what you need to do is try to calculate an accurate number of cases via the number of deaths, and an estimate of the mortality rate.
a good estimate of the mortality rate right now is between 0.1-0.5%. this is somewhere between the seasonal flu and the spanish flu, but much closer to the spanish flu.
so, an off the cuff calculation would suggest they have between 500,000-2,500,000 cases.
"but, that means they're failing. look at all of the cases."
again - that's based on the idea that you can burn the virus out, which we know is a horribly retarded opinion. as the population of sweden is around 10.25 million, that would suggest that between 5%-25% of the population is now immune to the virus, at least until it mutates.
at 66% for protective immunity, i would suggest a lower bound for the death toll would be about 6800 in the end.
now, is it fair to compare sweden to new york city? well, sweden is a country, and new york city is a city. that means that sweden has varying population densities, and new york city doesn't. the north of sweden is even basically a different country. the answer is "no, not really".
what kind of numbers do you get by doing the same analysis on data from the united states? the answer is that there are probably between 12 million and 62 million cases in the united states, indicating there's between 4%-19% immunity.
"so, if america has lower immunity, then it's winning. the lockdowns are working! hooray!"
well, they don't say americans are stupid without evidence, right?
these are marginal differences, in truth. but, i'd rather get to immunity faster, meaning i'd argue that sweden is winning.
what about canada?
calculating case counts from the death toll and a reasonable mortality rate, you're looking at between 600,000 and 3,000,000 actual cases - most in the detroit-quebec city corridor. that's 2%-8% immunity. so, unfortunately, canada would be rather far behind on building immunity, right now - but immunity is probably much higher in the more populated regions, even if it lags behind in the rural areas.
note: these calculations are extremely haphazard, in that you probably shouldn't compare the entirety of sweden to the entirety of the united states or the entirety of canada, even if it's better than comparing the entirety of sweden to the city of new york.
at
21:15
so, the number of deaths from the flu per year in new york is fairly constant at around 4500.
it would seem that a number below 50 would be more reasonable.
so, they should have a ways to go, still.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
it would seem that a number below 50 would be more reasonable.
so, they should have a ways to go, still.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
at
12:46
they're only reporting deaths under 6.
a very rough takeaway from this is that they found around 1,000 cases of flu in the state of new york over the last seven days, this time last year. this was a 50% decline from the week before.
but, that number is better comparable to the number of people walking into the hospital than the number of cases, because.....you don't get tested when you get the flu, do you? they only test the worst cases...
they're getting around that walking in, daily.
i'd like to find an actual death count before i speculate.
https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2018-2019/archive/2019-04-27_flu_report.pdf
a very rough takeaway from this is that they found around 1,000 cases of flu in the state of new york over the last seven days, this time last year. this was a 50% decline from the week before.
but, that number is better comparable to the number of people walking into the hospital than the number of cases, because.....you don't get tested when you get the flu, do you? they only test the worst cases...
they're getting around that walking in, daily.
i'd like to find an actual death count before i speculate.
https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2018-2019/archive/2019-04-27_flu_report.pdf
at
12:39
how many deaths/day does new york expect to see from the flu this time of year?
i'm asking this because you should not expect deaths to reach zero, there. like, ever.
so, what is a "normal" or "acceptable" daily death rate?
50? 100? 200?
if it flattens at 300, you might have to concede to the empirical truth; that might be your answer.
and, don't say "zero". that's just wrong.
i'm asking this because you should not expect deaths to reach zero, there. like, ever.
so, what is a "normal" or "acceptable" daily death rate?
50? 100? 200?
if it flattens at 300, you might have to concede to the empirical truth; that might be your answer.
and, don't say "zero". that's just wrong.
at
12:30
when people talk about a "second wave", they're implicitly referencing the 1918 flu outbreak.
so, realize this - the second wave was a mutation.
it is true that if the virus mutates, your antibodies will be of minimal use in protecting you. so, it's exceedingly important that these changes are carefully monitored. they consequently need as many samples as possible.
it is also true that a successful mutation would require that the vaccine process be rebooted. they'd have to start all over again...
you won't burn this virus out, so staying inside won't prevent a second wave. however, increasing testing to the absolute maximum possible might help, if they can catch it quickly.
https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-maps-coronavirus-genome-to-help-track-future-outbreaks-2154900
so, realize this - the second wave was a mutation.
it is true that if the virus mutates, your antibodies will be of minimal use in protecting you. so, it's exceedingly important that these changes are carefully monitored. they consequently need as many samples as possible.
it is also true that a successful mutation would require that the vaccine process be rebooted. they'd have to start all over again...
you won't burn this virus out, so staying inside won't prevent a second wave. however, increasing testing to the absolute maximum possible might help, if they can catch it quickly.
https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-maps-coronavirus-genome-to-help-track-future-outbreaks-2154900
at
12:13
the number of cases that doug ford gives you on a daily basis is completely useless information.
it's the death rate that is meaningful, and it continues to be on an upward trajectory.
it's the death rate that is meaningful, and it continues to be on an upward trajectory.
at
12:01
obviously, we can't wait two years for a vaccine - which means that the supposed best case scenario is for us to get to herd immunity the slow way.
at
11:59
"flattening the curve" is not even supposed to burn the virus out, it's just supposed to slow it down a little.
there's only two ways to burn a virus out, and they both involve the widespread presence of immunity.
there's only two ways to burn a virus out, and they both involve the widespread presence of immunity.
at
11:55
no, this was thought through - after sars.
nobody did their homework.
reading their twitter feed was far easier.
nobody did their homework.
reading their twitter feed was far easier.
at
11:45
apparently, people are hoarding by maxing out their credit cards.
....which means they're all using the machine, in line.
and, the exchange of cash would hardly be better, would it?
....which means they're all using the machine, in line.
and, the exchange of cash would hardly be better, would it?
at
11:43
it's not reducible to a six foot spread, either - whether the virus is airborne or not.
people will touch their noses at some point, then use the debit machine. or, they'll go to the bank machine before they go in.
if you're lucky - lucky - you can slow it down.
but, stopping it is hopeless.
we knew that. we had documents that told us it. we ignored them.
people will touch their noses at some point, then use the debit machine. or, they'll go to the bank machine before they go in.
if you're lucky - lucky - you can slow it down.
but, stopping it is hopeless.
we knew that. we had documents that told us it. we ignored them.
at
11:39
i can't think of anything that could be more high risk than a grocery store.
everybody goes there - healthy or sick, symptomatic or not. you couldn't define a better transmission vector if you tried; if your goal was to spread a virus, you would set up grocery stores to distribute food.
i'm not saying they should have shut down the grocery stores, i'm pointing out that our own white papers and planning documents made it clear that you can't stop transmission, you have to adjust to it.
everybody goes there - healthy or sick, symptomatic or not. you couldn't define a better transmission vector if you tried; if your goal was to spread a virus, you would set up grocery stores to distribute food.
i'm not saying they should have shut down the grocery stores, i'm pointing out that our own white papers and planning documents made it clear that you can't stop transmission, you have to adjust to it.
at
11:30
the public response to this is increasingly reflective of the definition of insanity.
but, despite the policy being designed by actuaries to minimize risk, they bet everything on it.
again: i don't want people to die. but, we had white papers that told us this wouldn't work - which we completely ignored, to listen to evan solomon, and follow the herd on social media.
it shouldn't be surprising that this isn't working - the science was crystal clear that it wouldn't.
so, all i'm really saying is that we should have followed our own policies - and that, next time, we'd better learn the lesson that we thought we learned last time.
but, despite the policy being designed by actuaries to minimize risk, they bet everything on it.
again: i don't want people to die. but, we had white papers that told us this wouldn't work - which we completely ignored, to listen to evan solomon, and follow the herd on social media.
it shouldn't be surprising that this isn't working - the science was crystal clear that it wouldn't.
so, all i'm really saying is that we should have followed our own policies - and that, next time, we'd better learn the lesson that we thought we learned last time.
at
11:26
so, they're starting to realize that social distancing really isn't working.
the solution?
more social distancing.
and, they say i'm insane.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/contracting-covid19-ontario-1.5548087
the solution?
more social distancing.
and, they say i'm insane.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/contracting-covid19-ontario-1.5548087
at
11:21
if you're new here and you like the track i posted, there's more here:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/stuck-in-the-middle-of-an-alley-closing-in-on-all-sides
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/stuck-in-the-middle-of-an-alley-closing-in-on-all-sides
at
07:27
my hydro bill this month was -$16.00. and, i did a ton of laundry, too.
enwin now owes me $6.00. two months ago, i had a $60 bill that i was planning on slowly eating away at via careful conservation. now, i'm hoping to build that credit up so i can turn my gear back on relatively soon.
i don't know if things go back to normal in mid-may or not. there was an announcement by the board that they would, but ford claimed otherwise soon after. i don't see any further press releases.
enwin now owes me $6.00. two months ago, i had a $60 bill that i was planning on slowly eating away at via careful conservation. now, i'm hoping to build that credit up so i can turn my gear back on relatively soon.
i don't know if things go back to normal in mid-may or not. there was an announcement by the board that they would, but ford claimed otherwise soon after. i don't see any further press releases.
at
06:16
so, i've been slow to get started today, after struggling with awakeness. i don't know. i haven't been smelling any drugs....
i might have just needed to catch up on some rest.
i uploaded an (i think.) unreleased midi remix of stuck in the middle of an alley closing in on all sides as the dummy track for the next journal, yesterday morning:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/01-2014-music-journal
hopefully, i can get some work done today before nodding off.
i might have just needed to catch up on some rest.
i uploaded an (i think.) unreleased midi remix of stuck in the middle of an alley closing in on all sides as the dummy track for the next journal, yesterday morning:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/01-2014-music-journal
hopefully, i can get some work done today before nodding off.
at
05:32
i've been clear that i think that religion should have been the first thing cancelled, but it was always with an assumption towards voluntarism. i never suggested throwing anybody in jail...
but, this demonstrates the futility of it - a lesson that the authoritarian left failed to learn after many attempts. look at russia, for the worst example - a genuinely well placed effort to systematically eradicate religion just brought it back even stronger.
it also demonstrates the broader folly of trying to order people around.
so long as there's a demand for this product, people will continue to purchase it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/
but, this demonstrates the futility of it - a lesson that the authoritarian left failed to learn after many attempts. look at russia, for the worst example - a genuinely well placed effort to systematically eradicate religion just brought it back even stronger.
it also demonstrates the broader folly of trying to order people around.
so long as there's a demand for this product, people will continue to purchase it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/
at
05:17
well, they've got lots of beds all of a sudden, right?
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/de-blasio-demands-mta-close-subways-for-homeless-clearance/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/de-blasio-demands-mta-close-subways-for-homeless-clearance/
at
04:25
ok, they're doing it.
good.
now, we wait.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/antibody-tests-are-being-rolled-out-across-new-york-city/
good.
now, we wait.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/antibody-tests-are-being-rolled-out-across-new-york-city/
at
04:09
and, if you didn't get the quip regarding kim il-sung singing whitney houston, i'll repost this:
at
03:48
they talk like it really matters.
what they should do is create a holographic projection of kim il sung, claim he came back from the dead, infer immortality upon him and just let the military stop worrying about it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/kim-jong-uns-uncle-emerges-as-possible-successor-in-north-korea/
what they should do is create a holographic projection of kim il sung, claim he came back from the dead, infer immortality upon him and just let the military stop worrying about it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/kim-jong-uns-uncle-emerges-as-possible-successor-in-north-korea/
at
03:30
the most recent numbers i've seen from new york city are over 25% now, with the same 3-4% margin of error, suggesting it could be higher than 30% - and getting closer to my deductions.
there was also an antibody study that suggests 30% in a small area of boston, which i'm going to agree looks a little bit shady. but, you have to understand that error works in both directions. pointing out that the sample may be unrepresentative necessarily means that it's just as likely to be an underestimate as it is to be an overestimate. so, that particular neighbourhood might have seen substantive spread through a specific grocery outlet, for example - and the true number in that region could be 40% or higher.
we need more testing...
but, don't ignore the data or write it off as "unreliable". that's bad form.
they keep testing people, and while the results are variable, the conclusions are consistent - way, way, way more people have already gotten this thing than previously realized.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable
there was also an antibody study that suggests 30% in a small area of boston, which i'm going to agree looks a little bit shady. but, you have to understand that error works in both directions. pointing out that the sample may be unrepresentative necessarily means that it's just as likely to be an underestimate as it is to be an overestimate. so, that particular neighbourhood might have seen substantive spread through a specific grocery outlet, for example - and the true number in that region could be 40% or higher.
we need more testing...
but, don't ignore the data or write it off as "unreliable". that's bad form.
they keep testing people, and while the results are variable, the conclusions are consistent - way, way, way more people have already gotten this thing than previously realized.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable
at
03:06
we don't have heresies in science.
we have debate and discussion - and we win via persuasion, not force.
we have debate and discussion - and we win via persuasion, not force.
at
01:01
i lost my sense of smell and everything.
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-had-to-sleep-this-afternoon.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-spent-morning-cleaning-and-i-ended-up.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-spent-morning-cleaning-and-i-ended-up.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/so-im-sick-and-am-dealing-with-it.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/when-i-woke-up-on-sunday-night-around.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-am-i-doing-ive-been-up-since-i.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-am-feeling-better-absolutely.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/when-i-woke-up-on-sunday-night-around.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-am-i-doing-ive-been-up-since-i.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-am-feeling-better-absolutely.html
at
00:56
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