Saturday, September 5, 2015

harper is actually hard to place on the american spectrum. the reason is that canadian conservatism is historical toryism, although he's coming out of a merger of historical toryism with a movement in canada called social credit. the result is that he's actually pushing what is somewhat of a novel political position even in canada. it's probably best to look at these two ideas separately.

historical toryism is something that probably needs to be explained to americans, because it itself will not make sense to american conservatives. that probably has to do with it's founder's role (edmund burke) in the american revolution, which was a confusing mess that got him despised by everybody. but, it's based on this idea of class harmony through obedience to authority. everybody in their right place, and everybody knowing their right place and everybody respecting everybody else's place. god and country and king. over time, this morphed into what americans would more readily identify as nanny-state socialism; first bismarck and then churchill advocated massive government-controlled social systems. in canada, the conservatives' primary defining policy position for the first half of the twentieth century was it's opposition to free trade, in support of the british cartel system (the "crony capitalist" mercantilist system). in the 60s, the canadian tories actually supported single payer health care when it was introduced and wrote the bill of rights that became the core of our very, very liberal constitution in the early 80s. in the 70s, they campaigned on "wage and price controls" that were state restrictions on inflation - total market interference at the most fundamental level. and, they even supported marijuana decriminalization. they were against markets, in favour of individual freedom and yet maintained a mild level of social conservatism regarding the role of tradition and religion.

the social credit movement is something a little different. it was based on some weird economic ideas that were a kind of watered down marxism and argued that what marx called surplus value should be collected by the state in taxes and redistributed to the population as a dividend. not very conservative in american terms, but not that weird in the context of a society where the right is british toryism. but, when the movement got off the ground in western canada, it quickly became a right-wing christian movement and the economic side of it was mostly forgotten. the guy that built this movement was nicknamed "bible bill". that should give you a good idea of what social credit was all about. social credit never came close to forming a government in canada, and never existed in any coalition, but it sometimes elected enough mps to be the third largest party. it could often get over 20% of the vote.

by a fluke of history, social credit got it's one shot at being important in 1979. the liberals won the popular vote, but the conservatives won more seats in the house of commons. it was, however, not enough to govern - it was a handful of seats short. a conservative-ndp or conservative-liberal coalition was out of the question. that meant that the conservatives' only chance of forming a government was to enter into a coalition with social credit, and the conservative leader of the time refused to do so - for good reasons. social credit was also associated strongly with anti-semitism. whatever the consequences, it is hard to criticize joe clark for rejecting them as a coalition partner. instead, he decided to try and govern as though he had a majority. this did not last long, because he did not have a majority, and his attacks on social credit alienated them.

but, this decision killed social credit. their right-wing base began to understand that, by voting social credit, they were electing liberals. at the same time, the thatcher revolution began to have some effect on the tories; they began to adopt some neo-liberal economic positions, although it was never to the scope of the tories in britain or the republicans in the united states. partly on the back of traditional social credit voters, the conservatives won a large majority in 1984 and a smaller one in 1988.

but, those social credit voters were turned off by the tories at almost the same time as they entered office. remember: the tories were not a socially conservative party, and social credit was. by the 1988 election, they had recreated themselves under a new party called "reform" (led by the son of a former social credit leader) that dropped the difficult associations that social credit had and attempted to position itself as a socially conservative, neo-liberal alternative to the socially liberal and only tentatively neo-liberal tories. stephen harper is a creature of this socred/reform movement, rather than a creature of the old tories. and, you can see this in his policies.

the conservatives were destroyed in 1993; they went from a majority in parliament to two seats. yes. two seats. that was it. the reform party won a large number of seats in the western part of the country. this was largely the consequence of western voters feeling that the tories were too liberal. but, the result of that, for many years, was that eastern voters refused to vote for the reform party because they were too conservative. it's a real cultural issue that splits the country less in half and more into rural and urban components. from 1993 to 2003, canada had two conservative parties - the old tories (who were only competitive in the east, and never won more than 20 seats) and the new reform/socred party (who dominated the west of the country).

realizing that they'd never win an election like this, the tories and reform party merged in 2003. at the time, stephen harper was the leader of the socially conservative reform faction, which was seen by most of the country as taking over the right - much to the chagrin of old tories.

but, where harper stood was always sort of a mystery. it really was. the liberals ran ads talking of a "hidden agenda", and they worked because nobody really knew where this guy stood. when he first started off, he was kind of a right-libertarian like ron paul. not exactly. he held some neo-conservative foreign policy views. but he was running a party that was primarily built around the anti-abortion vote, and that probably won power primarily on reaction to the gay marriage ruling. it was never clear if he was going to fold to that pressure or try and hold it off long enough to move his party back into the old tory space. it turns out that he's done neither - he's swung the party towards the republicans in the united states.

which is not to compare him to rick santorum. but, he is clearly not the reform/socred social conservative that people feared - he has ruled out any action on marriage equality, abortion, the death penalty and all the other things that, in truth, continue to drive his voter base. although if you look at his tax policies, they look a little like dividends. he's got a tax credit for anything you could imagine. he mails out billions of dollars in checks every year in subsidies, for everything from child care to volunteering at kiwanis. nor is he the old protectionist, liberal tory. he's tough on crime, even if it's largely a mirage. he's staunchly neo-liberal in economic persuasion.

but, he's very aligned with the american neo-cons on foreign policy. he basically rejects climate change, and, really, a lot of science. he has no attachment to truth; he's very rovian, in that way. he's brought in patriot act type legislation. and, while he hasn't gutted the social services, he's taken steps to slowly claw them back. he wants to starve the beast in increments, not cut the cord immediately. it's lulled a lot of people into a sense of false complacency. it's meant to.

what he's been trying to do is redefine this kind of republicanism-lite as the new canadian right by holding everybody in place and slowly easing people into it. from a distance, it may seem moderate. but, this is a big change from what the canadian right once was. and, it's still not clear whether he's succeeded in this task, or merely set himself up for a crash. the conservatives, as they exist, will forever be teetering on the brink of collapse back into old tory and socred factions. and, in the meantime, the liberals seem to have done a relatively good job in pulling socially liberal tories out and cementing them into their own base. if he loses power, his entire plan is likely done as the stack of cards falls apart.

so, putting him to the left of hillary clinton is pretty wrong. they're not far apart on foreign policy, but she's to his left on pretty much everything else. he's more like a new york republican: a tad right of giuliani. or a slightly less bellicose trump.



putting him a tad to the right of giuliani sounds moderate.

but the previous conservative prime minister, brian mulroney, was somewhere in the spectrum that's more comparable to tony blair.

and, the one before that (john diefenbaker) was truly broadly comparable to bernie sanders.
i've tried to express this perspective whenever i can. and, it's a hard truth, but she's absolutely right.

or, it could be that the seeming inability to alter certain experiments at the subatomic level implies that the universe is fixed into a single set out of outcomes, and we are all playing out a script that is predetermined. the uncertainty principle does not necessarily state that these outcomes are unpredictable. it does, however, necessarily state that these outcomes are inalterable. it's somewhat of a misnomer. it should be called the certainty principle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncOGU90e1mI
clearly, they're getting an in ground pool.

this is a kind of a mainstream, right-wing narrative. the ndp are neither likely to oppose the pipelines nor the tpp. that's just conservative party propaganda. it's kind of like when republicans call obama a socialist.

the ndp's position on the pipelines is that they want to use the environmental review processes to shut down the opposition. they're clear as day about it. it's a pr strategy for the oil industry. what they want are these review processes that they can take out and wave in front of the crowd and say "look. we studied it. it's safe. we're building it.". but, the liberals are not a progressive option on pipelines, either - although they are probably a better option on investment in green infrastructure. this has been a big election issue in canada for several years, coming out of the liberals trying to swallow the greens in 2008 by adopting almost their entire platform. the ndp have tended to lean towards carbon trading ideas (which everybody knows don't work), while the liberals have toyed with carbon taxes, rewrites of the tax code to penalize heavy carbon users, subsidizing renewable industry and other things of the sort - which are all classical liberal economics ideas, remember. all three parties will try to build pipelines; this is not an issue on the table. but, the liberals are the better bet for trying to position us moving out of a carbon economy. think of it like this: the liberals don't want to bite this, but they want to put things in motion for the future. the ndp want to reroute the tax money towards services. it doesn't make sense to boost taxes on oil companies and then try and shut them down; if you're boosting taxes, you want to help the companies grow - that's why you're boosting taxes, to get higher revenue streams.

but, here's some good news: alberta crude is low quality. it sells at about $20 less than texas crude. that means it's currently selling around $20. but, it's also very expensive to make and very expensive to transport. on top of that, there is massive indigenous opposition to the pipelines. the pipelines may not get built due to a combination of legal headaches and a lack of profitability. and, it's in that context that ideas to move past carbon should take precedence.

but, ironically, the conservative propaganda seems to be drowning out the reality. they keep calling the ndp anti-oil and making a big stink about it. and, despite the fact that it's not actually true, it's probably helping them substantially. it's a function of how out of touch the government is.

the only serious possible wrench is related to syria. both the liberals and the ndp will probably remove themselves from active combat. on a smaller note, they're both likely to legalize marijuana outright (although the ndp are calling from decriminalization & study, and the liberals are calling for immediate legalization). nowadays, i think that's less of a major concern than it was before. we came close to legalization in the early 00s, but the bush administration essentially vetoed it (not legally, but through threats).

i also need to point out that it really hasn't been a two party state. the ndp has never held power, but they've had huge amounts of influence. for example, back in the early 70s, they got the liberals to nationalize the oil industry in exchange for supporting the budget. yeah. we had a state oil company until the 80s, when the conservatives spun it back off. and, it was the ndp's refusal to support what was really a pretty good liberal budget that got us into this conservative mess (because they didn't want that pretty good liberal budget to pass, because they felt that would hurt them).

but, the ndp doesn't talk like that anymore. they would prefer trade agreements with countries that have comparable labour standards. but, they've made it clear as day that they will sign the tpp and they will support oil pipelines - although they'd rather pipe it to new brunswick so they can build refineries in the country. and, they're running on a platform of fiscal conservatism: functional cuts to health care (that's perennially an important election issue in canada) and balanced budgets.

the actual reason the ndp have been ahead in the polls is that they've managed to confuse people about an anti-terrorism bill, called c-51. it has the kind of government spying provisions in it that nobody likes. now, the conservatives had a majority at the time it was tabled, so it was going to pass, regardless. the liberals took the position of opposing the bill, but trying to make amendments to it. the ndp took the position of opposing the bill, and then politicking around the liberal amendments. the result is that the public gets the impression that the liberals supported the bill and the ndp opposed it, even though they basically have the same position on it. this resulted in a big swing from the liberals to the ndp that hasn't yet receded, but may be starting to. the corporate media has refused to talk about this, and instead points to everything else you could imagine - the alberta election, conservative ads, trudeau's comments on syria, even marijuana legalization (which actually has ~80% support). so, even the narrative as to why the ndp is ahead is warped by the conservative-dominated media. the actual truth is c-51.

 i'll tell you a way that the liberal democrats could win in texas: run a right-wing independent. the alberta election had three major parties:

- the wildrose party (tea-party style hard right)
- the conservative party (they're moderate republicans/democrats in alberta)
- the ndp (they're not very left-wing in alberta, either)

a lot of ridings had the conservatives and wildrose get as much as 65% of the vote between them, which let the ndp sneak through on the split. it wasn't a shift in public support, it was just vote splitting on the right.


as an aside, the greens are in clear opposition to the chapter 11 style sections of the tpp. and, they could get close to 10%.
this is the kind of vague, substanceless fluff that the ndp have spent the last ten years accusing the liberals of. i don't know if i'd say it's useless enough to turn people off, exactly. but, it's certainly not going to convince anybody.

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/05/ndp-ad-thomas-mulcair-ready-family_n_8094308.html

Propaganda Con Job
It's too bad Mulcair is boycotting the largest Consortium debate, broadcast on the 3 major TV networks, seen by the most Canadians.

Like Harper, Mulcair likes to push propaganda Con Jobs,

but they don't like to debate their questionable policies with the oposition leaders, in front of Canadians.

Karen Lund
Without Harper in the debates. the center/left is left with debating was is different in their platform which is minor and divisive compared to the corruption and fascist leaning of the conservatives. Job#1 is to get rid of Harper and get back Canada. Dividing the center/left plays into his agenda.

Propaganda Con Job
there are big differences in the Liberal & NDP platforms. Mulcair needs to be a man and show up.

Mulcair's promise to lower the threshold for Quebec to separate and Canada to break up, is not minor.

I believe Canadians would be very interested in Mulcair's response to the Bloc, since Mulcair has been evasive with Trudeau, in answering his pro-separation policy.

Trudeau, May & the Bloc are willing to show up and demonstrate what a looser Harper is for ducking questions, but Mulcair shows he's just as conniving.

If Job#1 is too get rid of Con artists, then Mulcair needs to show up.
But because Mulcair is also a Con artist like Harper, he hides in the shadows with him.

Mulcair took the "D" out of NDP.

Jessica Amber Murray
let's drop the chauvinism, please. you can make your point without it.

mulcair has not given me a lot of reasons to think he'd be very different than harper. see, and what's worse is that i'm entirely aware that he's done that on purpose - he's running as harper, because he seems to think that running as harper is the way to win the election. which suggests that he seems to think we actually want to carry on with harper.

i'm consequently not currently feeling much of a drive to vote strategically. it's actually left me rather cynical about the process. the ndp base has worked pretty hard to present an alternative to canadians, and in the end the party leadership has taken that away from us and given us a carbon copy of harper.

my comment was related to the ad. i've already made up my mind that i'm not voting for this party. but, i don't know who this is targeted at, besides perhaps a certain subset of the senior vote that harper currently owns.
they all support "free trade".
they all support pipelines.
they all support keeping corporate tax rates stupidly low.
they all support militarism and war (although they may have mild disagreements on tactics)

they are all right of centre neo-liberal capitalist parties. it's just a difference of scale.

globalnews.ca/news/2204193/poll-shows-40-of-voters-think-ndp-liberals-tories-are-basically-the-same-thats-good-news-for-harper/
the results are about what i'd expect; maybe a little less progressive, but in the right range. this isn't one of the issues i'd expect to get in a fight with *practicing* christians about either; they're generally egalitarians, it's baked right into the religion.

but, see, what i was concerned about was that 40% of liberals and dippers that are opposed to their party's positions, because i think we all know, from experience, how intense people can get about this. normally left-leaning people that tick off every box on the leftist checksheet can just get incensed about this.

if you're me, you want to support politicians on an issue like this. you really do. but, it just seemed like they were walking into a minefield of public opinion that they had little apparent recognition of. it would be heartbreaking to lose the election on a good intention.

thankfully, harper has been moderate on this point. the polling results are in spite of harper, not because of him.

but, i remain concerned that this has opened up a swing vote that, frankly, none of the major parties are going to want. no: kenny doesn't want your nonsense, either. and, i'd like to see the media move past it.

(link lost)