ford's path to victory was always reliant on his ability to swing ethnic conservatives on social issues, without losing too much support in the more traditional tory base, which is fiscally conservative, but rather socially liberal. this is a different country; we don't have a prominent christian right, here. i mean, it exists. but it's perpetually marginalized. it's the biggest difference between the two countries, and you can see it evidenced in policy, from gay marriage to abortion rights.

it's a contradiction that the conservatives need to resolve to form a government: their future is ethnic voters that want social conservatism and big government (not dissimilar to rural whites in the united states), but their past is fiscal conservatives that want responsible spending and libertarian social policy. that's a tightrope to walk. and it required a smart leader to navigate it.

ford has managed to alienate everybody. he fired the kingmaker, tanya allen granic, who was organizing support against sex ed. the beer in the corner store thing seems stupid and trivial to white people, but it's going to be a big deal for muslims, which is who wynne was really talking to - at the expense of her own party brand. but, by talking about this stuff, he scared people. on top of that, he speaks so vaguely about spending to a base that cares deeply about it that he has projected an aura of absolutely no credibility on fiscal concerns whatsoever. i think he even promised to run deficits.

so, what he had to do was build support in ethnic communities by pushing right-wing social messaging, while holding wealthy whites by appealing to their pocket books, and he's really done the exact opposite, alienating both groups of people.

i will say that: it's really a massive accomplishment to cut the tory base up. bravo, doug. that's been solid for decades. i guess if anybody could do it, it was going to be a ford brother.

this doesn't change any of the long term demographic realities i've been talking about. but, my fears of a realigning election appear to have been misfounded; the rejection of doug ford appears to be rather total. it's a tripartisan conclusion across race and class: this guy can't be running things.

but, again, that doesn't mean these people are going to vote ndp. it's more likely that they don't vote at all.

what if we get something like 15% turnout? is there a concept of quorum in the westminster system?