with south carolina, though, the field is badly split, and what that means is that nobody wins, but nobody really loses.

- biden needs to actually win, and he might
- steyer needs to get above 20% to even think of being competitive on super tuesday. but, i'm happy to let him hang around and split the black vote up...
- black voters in nevada are not quite as liberal as black voters in illinois or michigan, but they're nowhere near as conservative as black voters in the south. i wouldn't read much into how sanders did in nevada in terms of it being predictive in the south. he did well with northern blacks in 2016, too. he needs to focus on his 20-25%, and rely on the split in the field to limit the damage.
- buttigieg needs to try to play up the religious slant with rural democrats, mostly white ones, and hope it gets him some delegates at the district level. he's just looking to stay viable, though - he's just trying to get through it.
- neither warren nor klobuchar have a serious chance at delegates in south carolina, meaning they're both going to be a good ways behind the pack by the end of the process - 50, 60, 70 delegates out. it's far from insurmountable, but very challenging in a field this size.