it's not surprising at all. the poli sci major analysts just didn't understand how to read the polls.

clinton was less popular with both blacks & latinos than obama, and biden is even less popular than clinton. that is true across the south. so, why did clinton's numbers go up in the south? because she did better with white southerners than obama did. there's some logic in that, as she was first lady of arkansas for 8 years, and then first lady of the country for 8 more. also, she was white. i actually thought she underperformed amongst southern whites....

so, it is true that the demographics are moving in a direction that should benefit the democrats, but it is also true that the democrats have been running candidates that are not appealing to those demographics. so, what's actually setting in is not a democratic supermajority in the south but rather widespread apathy at the paucity of the options. what's the point of voting democrat if you just get a republican?

but, very old white people, who live in larger percentages in the rust belt, love joe biden, presumably because he looks like them and seems to think like them, too - just like donald trump seemed to four years ago.

it wasn't young blacks or latinos in the sun belt that won biden the primary, it was old white people in the rust belt. and, they seem to be sticking with their guy. if they do, he should easily swing these states back. i'm worried, though, that he'll do everything he can to undo that, in a misguided strategy pushed by a bad analysis.

so, as it was in 2016, this election is likely going to be decided by white retirees, not by young people. they seem to prefer biden to trump, and if that holds, biden will win.

how do we get out of this? the answer is to address voter apathy in the younger generation, which requires running candidates that are on the left of the party. yes: the party is going to run up against a brick wall in the black church, but it has to find some way around or over it. luckily, these churches may be dying of old age in high numbers, and less of a factor in the near future. that should make it easier to elect a more liberal candidate in the south, on the backs of younger people.

but, it would seem to be that, as long as the party runs conservatives in their 70s, young liberals in the sun belt are going to express apprehension about supporting them. and, i don't know why that's surprising.

the party should be trying to build a coalition of white liberals as it's base, and using minority groups to supplement that base, not trying to build a base of minorities and hoping white liberals sign up for it. it's just numbers....there's just way more white liberals....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/politics/2020-election-biden-trump-states/index.html