so, when we see rising mask use correlated with increasing case numbers, what does that tell you about how effective they are at reducing spread?

but, you want my polling analysis.

the answer is that you can't poll questions like this, because they come attached with coercion. it's equivalent to doing political polling in a country like iran; you can call people, and you can ask them questions, but they're just going to tell you what you want to hear.

of course i support the ayatollah. but, umm, how did you get my number? and do you know where i live?

it's against the law to not wear a mask in public in most places in canada right now. one would expect polling around the issue to reflect that reality, as people are going to be naturally fearful of admitting they're breaking the law, or siding with an illegal position. because we don't know what's next...

there's also a response bias; i'm one of the few people that has the audacity to be vocal about this, and i know i'm representing more people than is apparent, but if somebody managed to reach me on my cell phone (that i don't have) and started asking me questions about whether i'm wearing a mask or not, i wouldn't just instantly hang up, but would instantly change cell phone providers. that's a scary scenario.

so,

1) the people most likely to answer these kinds of polls are the people that support the policy.
2) those people are going to tell you exactly what you want to hear.

what i see walking around is general compliance, and a lot of kvetching about it. and, i'm increasingly being interpreted as a bad-ass, in a kind of rock star sort of way for not wearing one. that is, i don't feel i'm getting any push back - i feel people are maybe even kind of attracted by it. i'm a sexy, maskless rebel that plays by my own rules, and they wish they were too.

or, that's the impression.

i didn't call them up on their phones and ask them about it.

so, are these numbers right or wrong? it's not that easy. what i'm going to say is that you can't do this kind of polling accurately, and you shouldn't be surprised when the polling just reflects the status quo.

conversely, if you did this kind of polling right now and got a strong level of pushback, it would indicate a lot of anger at the state. that's not what we're seeing; people are going along to get along, whatever their feelings are about it, and ultimately repeating back what they're told.

we'll see how long that lasts for.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/support-face-mask-policy-high-canadians-poll