the other reason that the "turks are shipping terrorists from idlib to azerbaijan" narrative fails is that the turks seem to be trying to manipulate the situation to make a deal.

if i'm reading into this right, erdogan seems willing to trade idlib for nagorno-karabakh, which is just a delusional idea. the russians are going to take idlib for free, why would they need to make a trade? but, that seems to be what erdogan is doing, and it's probably just a shallow face-saving mechanism to making him seem less weak.