for years, i argued that the liberals were focusing too hard on winning the right, at the expense of the ndp's growing dominance on the left. i think what's happened is that the barrier has broken, and the ndp are reaching right across. that is to say that i think that mulcair is actually appealing more to right-wing liberals (both in style and substance) than trudeau is at this point, and trudeau is being pushed into second place across the board. from the bay street executive right across to the street protest anarchist willing to vote, mulcair is preferable.
an explanation for this is that he wasn't really appealing to the center-right in the first place, he was appealing to a combination of industry and what he imagined the center-right ought to think. right-wing liberals are going to be older, wealthy and focused on responsibility; mulcair's a far better fit, as these are the types that understand government's role in social policy as a means of pacification - a way to keep peace in society.
we haven't seen anybody command that kind of consensus (from the soft right to the moderate left) since chretien.
i was initially expecting harper to split them yet again, but it relied on trudeau holding the center. i'm starting to lean towards a mulcair sweep, and the liberals coming out of the election with a small and very left-leaning rump.
also, he should have never cut his hair.
i mean, let's take a look at these people, and what they did before running for prime minister.
pearson - un envoy, amongst other things.
trudeau - cabinet minister, amongst other things
chretien - is there a portfolio he didn't have?
martin - finance minister
dion - many cabinet positions
now, let's look at these two:
ignatieff - read cue cards on tv
trudeau v 2.0 - umm...
now, look at mulcair:
- multiple cabinet portfolios in quebec, considered for leadership of quebec liberal party.
if you're a liberal that likes people like pearson & trudeau & chretien, who is more in their image - justin or mulcair? who are you honestly going to be more likely to support?
if that coalesces, if it gets into people's heads, if it sinks in, if it actualizes...
mulcair could win 200+ seats.