one of the polls released yesterday is more interesting than the others.

this is an actual poll:
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OntarioThisMonth_WhatDoThePhonesSay.pdf

...and what does it say?

undecideds are at 13%.

now, let's keep in mind that this is a low ball and that the margin of error puts the range for the pcs up to 31%. but, nobody is going to vote for doug ford at the last minute. so, some recent evidence is forcing me to concede a point i wasn't previously - the pcs may actually be finally starting to actually lose ground. or, to put it another way, they may be having difficulty merely holding the support from the last election, when they got 31%.

ford may be looking at leading the pcs to a decrease in popular support. well, he talks to people like they're fucking idiots...

that would indicate that essentially all of the movement that's happening right now is from the liberals to the ndp, and then you need to get worried, because most of the ridings in this province are battles between the liberals and the conservatives.

the liberals weren't going to win very many seats outside of toronto, anyways, so it doesn't matter what they're running at in most of the province. the key indicator is not the 905 but the 416.

and...

see, this is more believable than the mainstreet data, but you have to keep in mind that the margins of error start getting very high when you're dealing with small sample sizes (like 101). and, it's hard to know exactly what to make of this. the liberals are clearly down substantively, but it would seem as though the conservatives are as well. based on this poll, at least, it would seem as though the concern is less about the liberals splitting the vote with the ndp and more about the liberals splitting the vote with the conservatives: this would indicate that it's the conservatives that are losing the most ground in toronto, at the expense of the ndp (which is also picking up support from the liberals). i'm left to conclude that the liberals and ndp have a week to wage the battle of toronto - and that ford doesn't matter much.

if the liberals are going to hold toronto, they're going to need to rely on their ground game, which means they need good brand recognition.

liberals seem to prefer horwath over wynne, at this point - and the media has been beating the snot out of her for forever, so it's not surprising. but, they still call themselves liberals, when asked. and, those numbers should be skewed higher in toronto.

based solely on this poll - an actual poll, but one that doesn't fit the media narrative - i would not expect the tories to win any more seats than they already have, and for the liberals to hang on relatively well around toronto.

if the ndp & liberals split the undecided vote you end up with something like:

ndp: ~50 (35%)
tories: ~30 (27%)
liberals: ~30 (23%)

...and the ndp are going to be working on razor thin pluralities that could easily see the seat totals with the liberals flipped, even if the vote totals end as suggested. there will be more than 20 liberal-ndp fights that swing on a few points.

(just based on this one poll...)