they're claiming the tories are on the brink of a majority, and the liberals are likely to get less than ten seats, but that's a dramatic misrepresentation of the data.

to begin with, they're using this screwy online polling data, which is just damaging the model. garbage in, garbage out. then they're aggregating it without compensating for time, essentially ruining it altogether.

based on what he's come up with here, i think it's pretty clear that you can expect the liberals to hold on to at least 20 seats - maybe 30 - and that the only plausible outcome right now remains a tory minority.

again: if reliable data comes in pushing a reliable liberal collapse in the 416, that changes. but, i'm not currently convinced that the liberals have lost their base.

the floor is probably 20. that's probably the worst that the liberals will ever do. ever.

http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/