but, yeah...

it's a guess. i don't have detailed data on undecideds.

but, i think that what's happening is that a lot of liberal voters are carefully studying the situation, and essentially trying to avoid splitting the vote, and that this is the only serious poll movement right now.

that's exactly what i'm doing, too.

the danger is that, if this is true, then there's enough people trying to avoid splitting the vote that we could swing it. oops.

your riding is unique. you can't generalize the specific; you can't take province-wide polls and try to cram them into your riding, with whatever local issues exist amongst whatever demographics. you need to know your riding's voting history (wikipedia helps.) and try and figure out what the zeitgeist is in it, right now. talk to your neighbours.

but, if your riding is a traditional liberal-tory battleground, then it probably still is, and you're probably better off voting liberal. and, if the ndp usually polls better, you shouldn't expect that to change now, either.

where we all need to be extra careful is in ridings where the liberals and ndp are usually at the top, and the conservatives are down a bit. a bad read could accidentally elect conservatives in these kinds of ridings.

but, there is not currently a strong argument that the kind of large shifts that we saw in the last federal election are happening in ontario right now. that could change. however, the evidence right now is toward stasis, even if people wish that the options were better.

don't believe the media. don't believe the hype.