mainstreet does good polling, so long as they publish the full results.

this is some reliable polling. finally.

and, this is what the headlines should say.

the conservative numbers are about where they always are; it's not at all clear that ford has expanded outside of the traditional tory base at all, but i do suspect you've seen some swapping in and out amongst the specific demographics i've pointed to: less upper class white voters, more middle class urban ethnic voters.

the ndp, once again, seem to be about steady.

but, the liberal support is caving - albeit not in any direction. and, this is the major thing that is happening: the conservatives and ndp seem to be holding steady to their base, while the liberal vote is really totally up in the air.

i normally talk about how not publishing the undecideds inflates conservative support, but, in this election, it appears to be inflating ndp support as well.

so, here's my conclusions about this poll:

1) the media narrative seems to be getting to liberal voters, who are being led to believe that they will need to vote for a different party if they want their vote to matter. they are not committing to anybody. but, they will decide the election - and they could still stick with the liberals, in the end.
2) this swath of undecided liberal voters is inflating numbers for both of the other parties.

but, this is the same place we were at six months ago.

i don't know who these undecided liberals are, so i don't have a lot of suggestions on what to do to get them. in past elections, it's been clear that we've been dealing with the disillusioned left of the party, but, right now, this appears to be manufactured dissent: voters in a panic to make sure their votes count, as a consequence of their preferred party unravelling.

the media created this story as a self-fulfilling prophesy, and here it is happening, in front of us. 

there is some chance they could settle down, that they're just panicking.

one would actually expect the undecideds to start falling right now, not start increasing. the pollsters may tell you it's weak support, but it may be more about weak confidence than weak support. liberals are going to be a little less ideological and a little more pragmatic, because that's what they are; but, that pragmatism could lead them back rather than pull them away, in the end.

i have no deep insight into this other than to state it bluntly: liberal voters are up for grabs right now, and it's not entirely clear what they want.

but, they might be more afraid of ford than anything else.