Wednesday, July 29, 2020

yeah, he's right that this is cyclical.

listen: people get scared and they move their money into something that they think can't deflate. but, the price of gold is just as much a pile of bullshit as the price of any other commodity, including money itself, really is. in the end, it's just a worthless lump of metal; at least worthless piles of paper can be exchanged. all you can do with gold at the end of the day is sell it, and hope you've broken even.

so, is there any longterm potential in this? no. the day the situation flips over and there's any kind of interest going on anywhere at all, the people that fled to gold will sell their worthless metal and float back. in the mean time, the demand will keep pushing gold up, unless some smartass like soros steps in to fuck with it (and remember: this is why sovereign countries have fiat currencies, to prevent foreign speculators from doing what soros did to defraud the uk government). soros is super old now, right? if somebody pulls the same trick...

but, might people exchange their gold for a different currency, in the end?

see, it's a circular loop. the more money the united states prints, the more it dominates the global economy, and the harder it is to evade it. so long as that remains the case, you can sell the gold for whatever you want, but it's going to end up back as us dollars in the end.

if you want to break the fed, you want to actually do the opposite - you want to dry the money up, for the fed to contract. as it pulls in more and more dollars, it's going to lose purchasing power, and it's only then that a euro can step in. but, that's essentially never going to happen, unless the americans elect an idiot that's going to push through a bunch of neo-liberal nonsense - and for all their rhetoric, they actually don't do that because they actually know better. it would need to be a total breakdown in the system that would lead to that sort of collapse.

so long as they continue to create money rather than destroy it, there is little threat of anybody stepping in any time soon. and, when somebody does take a run for it eventually, and it will no doubt be the chinese that do it, they're going to do it by outprinting them, and just flooding the market with their own currency.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-reserve-u-s-dollar-economy-rates-jerome-powell-1.5666260