Monday, October 28, 2024

everybody is so cynical nowadays. this must be a ploy to win, right?

the problem with running a parachuted-in candidate like harris is is that nobody actually knows where she stands on anything. she's clarified pretty clearly that she opposes restrictions on abortion. that's about it right now.

i don't think this is cynical and i don't think it's pragmatic. i think this is actually harris making an attempt to define herself as a moderate conservative, which is what she has always been, and attempting to honestly broadcast how she would actually govern.

as an aside, i'm really annoyed by the british press' insistence on the important of the muslim vote in michigan. there's no empirical basis to this and attempting to cater to muslim voters in a small region in suburban detroit is going to alienate the much larger and much more important black vote. distant british journalists clearly don't understand that the blacks and the muslims actually don't get along very well, and trying to cater to one has the tendency of pissing off the other. the democrats need to focus on winning black voters in detroit and on winning white liberals outside of detroit. appeasing conservative muslims that want to side with hamas cannot and should not be their secondary or tertiary concern if they want to actually win.

michigan does not have the most muslims in the united states:


further, it's worth pointing out that there's around 120,000 jews in michigan, as well.

it's certainly unusual that there are twice as many muslims as jews, and there would be few places in north america where that is true, but these are not numbers that are going to swing elections. in the long run, jews are generally liberals and muslims are generally conservatives. it makes no sense to focus on muslims at the explicit expense of jews. there are more than 250,000 arabs, but roughly half of them are christians that will assimilate as white within a generation or two. while it will be a smaller percentage than arab christians, an unknown but substantive (30%? 40%?) number of arab muslims in michigan will inevitably convert to christianity or atheism and assimilate as well.

this idea that michigan will be swung by the muslims is a narrative pushed by wealthy arab financiers that has little bearing in reality and that needs to be debunked as specious.