Monday, May 11, 2015

the tories went up a few seats, but i'd suggest this is a turnout issue. the snp may have picked up some seats from labour, but the swing seems to be mostly from the liberals. there does not appear to have been significant movement towards or away from either of the traditional governing parties - suggesting that they command older voting bases and are unpopular with younger voters.

rather, there seems to have been a large swing from the lib dems to the ukip, among young people. that might not make sense on first thought, but it does. every country has this "protest vote". in the united states, it's called "independent". in canada, it tends to swing around between the ndp, the greens and the liberals (and often decides elections). this protest vote is not strongly ideologically aligned, but merely against whatever exists. since wwII, it's tended to lean left in most places outside of the us, but there's no reason to think that ought to be static.

what this indicates is a strong rightward shift in the british counterculture, especially amongst young people. should that trend continue, the liberals will be replaced with the ukip. it might not have a direct electoral consequence, but it indicates a cultural swing to the right. and that should be concerning to everybody.