you claim that voters in the middle of america want to vote for the person that they see themselves most in. it's not exactly identity politics in the "intersectionality" sense, but it's the broad idea.
and, then you claim they'll vote for the north-eastern liberal (donald trump) instead of the midwestern conservative (hillary clinton)? how does that make any sense?
this is why missouri is going to be so important. virginia is a different scenario: you've got expanding urbanization, migration south and just general....colonization? it's kind of the truth of it. virginia has been colonized by the north. but, missouri is actually deindustrializing..
she can't pull this off everywhere. but, that cluster of states around missouri is the real wild card. i don't think she'll win arkansas, but it very well might be closer than north carolina. i don't think she'll win tennessee, but she'll probably lose it by less than trump loses pennsylvania by. in the case of some extraneous circumstance - the rise of gary johnson? - those states are within striking distance.
i know that the media has been pushing the message for a long time now, but the reality is that hillary clinton is not a northeastern liberal. if she was a northeastern liberal, like bernie sanders, i wouldn't be so revolted by her. rather, she is a midwestern conservative. and, if the midwest really does prioritize their own over outsiders, she will be competitive there - even if missouri is the only state she can actually win.
if she swoops down there and pulls out the drawl...
who are they going to see themselves in more? the distant billionaire from new york with the very dominant foreign accent, married to some european floozy, or the woman they know well through her husband that talks and sounds and acts like them?
your argument just doesn't make any sense.
we've only had one poll from kentucky so far, back in june, but clinton was actually beating trump by 3 points. that's not so crazy to me...
the only poll in mississippi was in march, but trump was only up by 3. again: not so crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaDQ1vIuvZI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCyvyyo6dtQ
and, could johnson split the vote in georgia?
perot did in '92.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_kr9_xBssI