i'm not a stock analyst.

i don't own stocks, or have anything to gain from the stock market moving one way or another.

but, i understand the basic mathematics underlying the american economy, and the fact is that a proper valuation of the stock market is a function of quantitative easing. that is, when you print money, the market goes up - and when you destroy money, the market comes down.

when stocks move in the opposite direction of the fed policy, what that means is that the market is in a bubble. and, that bubble must eventually burst due to divestment, as a consequence of money destruction.

what props the bubble up is short trading - people that treat the market like a casino. and, what we're seeing right now is that the market is being propped up dramatically by incredible amounts of casino capitalism.

how long can that continue for? well, i don't know. i can point out the fundamental relationship between printing money and trading it. but, i'm not a stock analyst, and i neither can nor desire to make predictions of this sort.

it's certainly overdue, though.

and, when it crashes it's going to be nasty....

is it possible that the bubble could persist until they start printing more money? i guess so. but, it would only cushion the crash, in the end. and, there's a kind of causality in markets crashing and money being printed, because capitalists have this silly idea that these crashes are short term....that the economy can eventually survive on it's own....

no.

so, i'm not altering my analysis. i'm just pointing out that it's taking a long time to happen.

at the end of the day, stocks are always worth what we imagine they're worth. that is true. but, when the money dries up, there's nothing left to trade. and, that is the inevitability that follows from stopping the printing presses...