why am i being hard-headed about this?

it's true that i don't think it makes any sense. this is absurdity. the guy's a goof.

but, the numbers just really aren't there.

look, this is what we've got in front of us since the beginning of august:

the liberals have run between 31.5% and 36.9%. that's 5.4%. 5.4/2 = 2.7%. the margin is 2.8-3%. there's no statistically meaningful movement, there - they're running at 34% +/- 3%.

the conservative spread is 7.1, the green spread is 6.7% & the ndp is 7.9%. these are a little bit outside of the margin, which would be 6% at it's maximum extent. but, not substantively so. the fact that the bloc and ndp are at highs and the liberals are at a low is not as important as you probably think.

you have to really move a good distance with these kinds of polls, especially when you're coming out of a lull.

it could be in a day or two that we could look back at this as the start of a trend. or, we could look back at it and say that it's just a blip. the liberal and conservative numbers have been coming up and down for weeks - you can't draw anything from that. trying to draw conclusions from just a small part of the graph would be cherry-picking data. it's just too early to do it.

the liberals are supposed to do better than that