actually, i think i got the right idea.

i suggested that, if warren ends up viable more often than not, the results in iowa would be:

sanders - 26
buttigieg - 25
warren - 20

i also pegged biden at 31. but, you'll notice that those four results add to 100, and that's what i really did wrong - i wiped all of the nonviable candidates out and folded them into biden as error, rather than string them along.

who else was this close?

http://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2020/02/there-going-to-be-wide-variability.html

i also presented three likely outcomes, and two of them worked out:
http://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2020/01/this-gets-right-idea-across-but-i-think.html